Today’s UFC Denver event is a 12 fight card starting at 7:00PM with the card airing in
its entirety on ESPN. We have 6 Bets! Enjoy the UFC Denver – Betting Blueprint, and as
always “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)
Betting Terms Key:
“ITD” means “Inside the Distance” this is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and
not go to the judge’s scorecards. We use this “ITD” two ways, “Fight ITD” means either
fighter to win “Inside the Distance” If you see a fighter‘s name only and not both
fighters example “Jones ITD” that means to bet Jones “Inside the Distance” which
means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
Some books offer the fighter “ITD” bet called a “Double Chance” in this case select the
fighter who we have “ITD” as example “Jones ITD” by “Submission/KO/TKO.”
Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet listed as “Will the Fight Go the Distance?” In this
instance, select “NO” if we are betting the fight “ITD”
I only play DFS on DraftKings, that is why I only mention them specifically and give you
my thoughts on how I will be setting my lineups.
“LOCK BUTTON” “CORE” & “ALL IN” are used to describe when I absolutely love a
fighter for DFS and will be using them in most of my lineups entered.
When I say that I will use both fighters as an ex: favoring Jones 7/3 or another fraction,
that means that I will use each fighter throughout my lineups and favor the fighter
mentioned. This fraction is an example of my exposure to each fighter based on 10
lineups entered. In the above case it would be 7 lineups for Jones vs. 3 for the opposing
fighter.
When I say I will use each fighter in a couple of lineups where applicable means that I
will not have over 10 lineups of either side in this fight, and I will use each fighter
sporadically if applicable.
Evan Elder vs. Darrius Flowers
Notes:
Elder is 8-2 with 5 wins by finish. “The Phenom” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
Flowers is 12-7-1 with 9 wins by finish including 8 by KO. “Beast Mode” was stopped in 6
of his 7 losses.
Draft Kings:
Elder $9,400
Flowers $6,800
Analysis:
This opening fight between Evan Elder and Darrius Flowers was just added to the card on
Wednesday and with this event taking place at altitude in Denver, I expect many fights to be
affected by the altitude starting with this one. Darrius Flowers is 0-2 in the UFC and fighting to
stay on the roster and his back is against the wall at altitude with short notice. “Beast Mode”
took his UFC debut on short notice in Utah and was affected by the altitude prior to getting
submitted in the 2 nd round. Elder last fought a year ago and has good volume striking and
decent power with 2 knockdowns in his 3 UFC fights. I expect an early Flowers KO or Elders
volume to wear down Flowers for the late finish. Either way, I like VIOLENCE here to open the
night. I bet fight to end inside the distance and used it in a parlay.
DFS – I will play Elder in my Draft Kings lineups.
Andre Petroski vs. Josh Fremd
Notes:
Petroski is 10-3 with 8 wins by finish. Andre was stopped in all 3 of his losses.
Fremd is 11-5 with 8 wins by finish. Josh was stopped in 3 of his 5 losses.
Draft Kings:
Petroski $7,900
Fremd $8,300
Analysis:
Andre Petroski is on a 2-fight losing streak albeit against 2 tough fighters losing both by KO &
Josh Fremd the Denver native was KO in his last fight. Petroski is a strong wrestler averaging
4.25 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon and has good overall grappling and submissions
along with power in his strikes. Fremd has good kicks and is good in the clinch as well as being a
decent wrestler but not on the level of Petroski. Fremd trains here in Denver which should help
with the altitude and conversely Petroski has shown to fade cardio wise in tough fights. I like
Petroski here and think that he can hurt Fremd on the feet and on the ground. I bet on Petroski
-105 risking 2.1 to win 2 units.
DFS – I will play Petroski in my Draft Kings lineups.
Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova
Notes:
Santos is 7-1 with 4 wins by finish.
Agapova is 10-4 with 8 wins by finish. “Demonslayer” was stopped in 3 of her 4 losses.
Draft Kings:
Santos $9,200
Agapova $7,000
Analysis:
This fight is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup with Luana Santos the grappler, a judo black
belt vs. Mariya Agapova who is 2-3 in her UFC fights and on 2 fight losing streak dropping both
by submission. The difference maker will be the grappling as Agapova defends takedowns at
only a 47% rate and that won’t cut it here vs. Santos. I like Santos to rinse & repeat takedowns
for a dominant unanimous decision victory or perhaps the submission. I bet Santos and used
her in a parlay.
DFS – I will play Santos in my Draft Kings lineups.
Montel Jackson vs. Da’Mon Blackshear
Notes:
Jackson is 10-3 with 8 wins by finish. Andre was stopped in all 3 of his losses.
Blackshear is 14-6 with 11 wins by finish.
Draft Kings:
Jackson $8,600
Blackshear $7,600
Analysis:
Montel Jackson is on a 4-fight winning streak and will return to action after a 15 month layoff to
take on Da’Mon Blackshear who is 2-2-1m in his 5 UFC fights. Jackson is a long, powerful striker
with 7 wins by KO but fights with low volume and has struggled when put on his back.
Blackshear is a very good grappler and a good wrestler averaging 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes
in the Octagon and has recently spent time at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand to work on his
striking. As mentioned Jackson has big power and has 10 knockdowns in his last 6 fights and
that is something that Blackshear cannot play around with however I think that he will be gritty
enough to stay safe on the feet until he can initiate his wrestling and get the fight to the
ground. I favor Blackshear here as an underdog and think that he will be able to win the
minutes whereas Jackson needs a KO. I bet Blackshear +125 risking 1 to win 1.25 units.
DFS – I will play Blackshear in my Draft Kings lineups.
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Fatima Kline
Notes:
Jasudavicius is 10-3 with 4 wins by finish.
Kline is 6-0 with 3 wins by finish. “The Archangel” is making her UFC debut.
Draft Kings:
Jasudavicius $7,800
Kline $8,400
Analysis:
Fatima Kline is a late notice replacement and making her UFC debut here and she was instilled
as a favorite over the 4-2 UFC veteran Jasmine Jasudavicius which is a big compliment to her
skillset, but is it warranted? Jasudavicius has a UFC win over Miranda Maverick and Kline has
beaten up on girls in the regional scene and will now have to move up weight class for this fight.
I respect the skills of Kline who is the girlfriend of Erin Blanchfield, but I don’t like that she is
moving up a weight class to fight the bigger and better wrestler in Jasudavicius. I bet
Jasudavicius -105 risking 1.05 to win 1 unit.
DFS – I will play Jasudavicius in my Draft Kings lineups.
Joshua Van vs. Charles Johnson
Notes:
Van is 10-1 with 8 wins by finish including 6 by KO. “The Fearless” was submitted in his
only loss.
Johnson is 15-6 with 9 wins by finish.
Draft Kings:
Van $8,700
Johnson $7,500
Analysis:
Joshua Van is 3-0 in his UFC fights and 10-1 overall and at only 22 years old “The Fearless” is
improving each time out. Charles Johnson is coming off a huge win in front of his hometown
crowd in St. Louis and is 4-4 in 8 UFC fights. Van is a high volume boxing style striker who gets
stronger as the fight goes long but has average takedown defense and grappling. Johnson is a
rangy, low volume striker with bad takedown defense, but he does a good job scrambling back
to his feet. Johnson will have a 4-inch height & 5-inch reach advantage, but Van is 10 years
younger. This is a tough fight to confidently call but I think Van will win with his volume. I don’t
desire to lay -250 here as I can make an argument for “InnerG’ to win as well. Pass, No Bet.
DFS – I will play Van in my Draft Kings lineups.
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cody Brundage
Notes:
Alhassan is 12-6 with all 12 wins by KO. “Judo Thunder” was stopped in 2 of his 6 losses.
Brundage is 10-6 with 8 wins by finish. Cody was stopped in 4 of his 6 losses.
Draft Kings:
Alhassan $8,500
Brundage $7,700
Analysis:
This fight screams VIOLENCE as Abdul Razak Alhassan has 12 KO’s in his 12 wins and Cody
Brundage has 8 of 10 wins by finish and has been stopped in 4 of his 6 losses. Alhassan is a black
belt in Judo, however he rarely uses it offensively and prefers to throw bombs with looping
overhand punches. Brundage is a solid wrestler averaging 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes in the
Octagon and has an excellent guillotine that he uses when being taken down which often leads
to him being finished if he does not submit his opponent. Alhassan is now 39 years old and
lacks cardio & Brundage is a quitter and gasser and now we are given this gift of this matchup
happening at altitude. A perfect recipe for VIOLENCE! I bet fight to end inside the distance and
used it in a parlay.
DFS – I will play both fighters in my Draft Kings lineups.
Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez
Notes:
Erosa is 29-11 with 24 wins by finish. “Juicy J” was KO in 7 of his 11 losses.
Rodriguez is 11-1 with 7 wins by finish.
Draft Kings:
Erosa $7,300
Rodriguez $8,900
Analysis:
Christian Rodriguez will now get to face a UFC veteran in Julain Erosa after he defeated 3
straight top prospects in the UFC by impressive fashion. Erosa is 6-6 in 12 UFC fights with 9 of
them ending by finish. “Juicy J” will have a 5-inch height & 3-inch reach advantage here and
Rodriguez is 8 years younger. “CeeRod” is well-rounded and can fight in all areas but prefers to
use a counter striking and defensive wrestling style. Erosa is dangerous everywhere and is a
finisher with 24 of his 29 wins by finish. On the flipside, Erosa was KO in 7 of his 11 losses. I
favor the consistency of Rodriguez’s style as to the big moment finishing style of Erosa in this
matchup. I bet Rodriguez and used him in a parlay.
DFS – I will play Rodriguez in my Draft Kings lineups and play some Erosa lineups in large field
GPP’s.
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Ange Loosa
Notes:
Bonfim is 15-1 with all 15 wins by finish including 12 by submission. “Marretinha” was
KO in his only loss.
Loosa is 10-3 with 6 wins by finish including 5 by KO.
Draft Kings:
Bonfim $9,300
Loosa $6,900
Analysis:
Despite losing his last time out for the first time in his career, Gabriel Bonfim is still a top
prospect who is a VERY talented & skilled fighter and only 26 years old. Ange Loosa is 2-1-1 in
his 4 UFC fights and is a good striker with solid wrestling. I love Bonfim, however the reason
that he lost last fight was due to his poor cardio and once he could not get the finish vs.
Nicholas Dalby, he wilted and succumbed to strikes in the 2 nd round. Loosa is a physical
specimen who has never been finished and this fight is at high altitude. If Bonfim does not pace
himself and/or get the early finish, I can see a scenario where Loosa takes over late and either
steals the decision or perhaps gets the finish. Like I said, I love N=Bonfim but I cannot bet on a
gasser at altitude vs someone who was never stopped and LAY -350! Pass, No Bet.
DFS – I will play Bonfim in my Draft Kings lineups and play Loosa in some large field GPP builds.
Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva
Notes:
Dober is 27-13 with 20 wins by finish including 14 by KO. Drew was stopped in 6 of his
13 losses.
Silva is 13-2 with 12 wins by finish including 10 by KO.
Draft Kings:
Dober $8,200
Silva $8,000
Analysis:
This fight will have more fireworks than Macy’s 4 th of July show! Both fighters are big time
power punchers and prefer to stand & bang. In fact, in his last 6 fights for Dober they all ended
by finish except in his last time out vs. Moicano, however that was due to Moicano’ s wrestling
and control. No one will be wrestling here. We just saw Jean Silva 2 weeks ago win by KO in the
2 nd round and he will now take this fight short notice up a weight class which also leads to all
signs pointing for an early finish. I was pleasantly surprised to see this line for the fight to end
inside the distance at only -320 as I expected it o be north of -700. I LOVE VIOLENCE in this spot
and at that price! I bet fight to end inside the distance and used it in a parlay.
DFS – I will play both fighters in my Draft Kings GPP lineups with more of Silva due to price and
my lean for him to win.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov
Notes:
Ponzinibbio is 29-7 with 22 wins by finish including 16 by KO. “Argentine Dagger” was
KO in 4 of his 7 losses.
Salikhov is 19-5 with 15 wins by finish including 13 by KO. “King of Kung Fu” was stopped
in 4 of his 5 losses.
Draft Kings:
Ponzinibbio $8,800
Salikhov $7,400
Analysis:
This is a fight that I do not have much interest in between the 40 year old Muslim Salikhov who
is on a 2-fight losing streak vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio who is 37 years old and has lost 3 of his last
4 fights. I am very surprised that this is the co-main event. I anticipate a boring kickboxing affair
that can play out like a hard sparring session. Pass, No Bet.
DFS – I will play Ponzinibbio in my Draft Kings lineups.
Rose Namajuanas vs. Tracy Cortez
Notes:
Namajuanas is 12-6 with 7 wins by finish including 5 by submission. “Thug” was stopped
in 2 of her 6 losses.
Cortez is 11-1 with 2 wins by finish. Tracy was submitted in her only loss.
Draft Kings:
Namajuanas $9,000
Cortez $7,200
Analysis:
Tracy Cortez steps in as a replacement for Maycee Barber to fight “Thug Rose” Namajuanas in
the Main Event instead of her originally planned fight a week later against Miranda Maverick.
Namajuanas won a unanimous decision her last time out snapping a 2-fight losing streak. Cortez
is 5-0 in the UFC and is on an 11-fight win streak after dropping her pro MMA debut back in
2017. Cortez is a very strong wrestler with excellent top control and Rose has struggled to
defend takedowns at a 59% defense rate and I believe that to be the difference maker in this
fight. Both fighters have good boxing with “Thug Rose” being the better overall striker. At an
underdog price of +185, Cortez is too good to pass up at that price. I bet Cortez +185 risking 1
to win 1.85 units.
DFS – I will play Cortez in my Draft Kings lineups.
UFC Denver – Bets:
7:00: Elder/Flowers fight ITD & Rodriguez parlay +115 (1 to win 1.15 units)
7:00: Petroski -105 (2.1 to win 2 units)
7:00: Santos & Dober/Silva fight ITD parlay -149 (5 to win 3.35 units)
7:00: Blackshear +125 (1 to win 1.25 units)
7:00: Jasudavicius -105 (1.05 to win 1.25 units)
7:00: Cortez +185 (1 to win 1.85 units)
UFC Denver – DFS Plays:
Favorite GPP Spend Up Play:
9,300 – Santos
Favorite GPP Value Play:
7,900 – Jasudavicius
Favorite Spend Down GPP Play:
7,500 – Cortez
