TopHog’s 2023 PGA Tour Championship Betting Guide

TopHog's PGA Tour Championship Bets

We made it! Welcome to East Lake and the final tournament of the 2023 PGA Golf Season. In a season that saw some familiar faces dominate early (Rahm and Scheffler), saw the re-emergence of some old friends (Let’s go Rickie!), and saw some surprises along the way, anything can happen in this final weekend. 

East Lake and the Tour Championship is a little tricky to figure out. With staggered scoring and Scottie Scheffler starting at -10, a two-stroke lead over Hovland, and a 10-stroke lead over the guys in 26-30th, he has a clear advantage at a track that is hard to close a lot of ground on in a hurry. 

East Lake Golf Club is a par-70 layout, measuring 7,319 yards with Bermudagrass greens. A Donald Ross design, East Lake has the most narrow fairways on Tour, hitting them will be crucial. East Lake is also top three in average par-3 length, three of which are over 200 yards. Six of the par-4s measure over 450 yards, as has been the case throughout the FedEx playoffs, iron play will be crucial. 

It’s hard to bet a tournament where the best golfer in the world has a 10-shot lead over the field, so don’t be afraid to go light on the betting, or save some bullets for Friday or Saturday to live bet when we have a better idea of where everyone is at. That being said, I am going to give you a few pre-tourney bets I like.

PGA Tour Championship Picks:

  • Pick To Win: Xander Schauffele +2800 (0.5 Units)

    This is simply a value play. Xander is one of the best golfers at East Lake over recent years. Xander is the best putter on Bermuda the last 24 rounds, he ranks third in Par 4 scoring on Par 4s over 450 yards. Xander won this event in 2017 and shot the lowest score to par in 2020, but couldn’t close the gap of the stagger. He has a seven-stroke deficit to make up this year. That’s going to be really tough, but at +2800, I will put a half a unit on an elite iron player who has some amazing course history.

  • Pick To Win: Rory McIlroy +350 (1 Unit)

    If anyone has a legitimate chance to chase down Scottie, it’s going to be Rory at +350 to win. Rory starts only three strokes back, and has been playing strong all year long. He has finished T-9 or better in his last nine starts. He is familiar with coming from behind at East Lake, rallying from his -5 starting score and a six-shot deficit to close on Scheffler and take the win. Rory has won three times here and I think this year he becomes the first back to back winner of the Tour Championship.

  • Top 5 Finish: Tommy Fleetwood +450 (1 Unit)

    Starting -3, I think it’s going to be hard for Fleetwood to get his first win on the PGA Tour. That being said, starting only two strokes out of the top 5, I think he can easily get himself into contention. As I mentioned above, long irons and hitting fairways is going to be crucial this week, and few are doing it better that Tommy. Fleetwood has produced five top-six finishes over his last 10 starts and was in the mix at the last two majors, proving that he likes to show up when it matters most. Ranking third in one-putt average, I think that, mixed in with his strong iron play, sets him up for another strong finish. Give me a guy of this caliber at +450 to put himself in contention.

That’s it for me this week. Like I said, with the stagger I am going to wait to hammer it live as things become a little more clear. Those live plays will be posted in the Discord. Let’s have a strong end to the 2023 season!
-TopHog

Continue Reading: Price’s PGA Tour Championship DraftKings Plays

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