GOAT’s 11/5/23 Cup Series Championship Daily Fantasy Plays

GOAT's NASCAR breakdown phoenix championship

NASCAR Cup Series Championship
Phoenix International Speedway
Sunday 11/5/23 3:30 PM
1 mile, Paved

Championship weekend. One of four will be crowned the 2023 champion.  Blaney, Bell, Larson, Byron.  This is a 312-lap event.

Last Race Notables: Byron won.  Larson led 201 laps, Byron led 64 laps, Harvick led 36 laps, Jones led 14 laps.  Start/Finish:  Reddick 12/3, Harvick 15/5, Briscoe 24/7, Preece 25/12, A. Dillon 30/16.

Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions.  Less laps = less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, which makes place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable.  Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely to be two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.

Process:

Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar.  We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers.  Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run.  I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off.  The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.

I am trying to narrow things down for you.  Too much information can just be confusing.  If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.

Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:

Point Scoring:

Drivers will accumulate points as follows:

DraftKings Scoring:
  • Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
  • Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
  • Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
  • Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
  • 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
  • Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
  • Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
  • Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
  • Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)

Track Stats:

Last 4 Races Driver Pts Previous Winners Year Laps Led Average Finish
Logano 182 Byron 2022 Larson 319 Blaney 3
Harvick 169 Logano 2022 Blaney 285 Harvick 6
Byron 160 Briscoe 2021 Logano 191 Busch 7.3
Larson 143 Larson 2021 Elliott 144 Logano 7.8
Briscoe 133 Truex 2020 Briscoe 112 Byron 10.5
Reddick 128 Elliott 2020 Byron 76 Chastain 10.8
Logano 126 Logano 2019 Truex 72 Briscoe 11.8
Busch 123 Hamlin 2019 Harvick 37 Hamlin 11.8
Chastain 115 Kyle Busch 2018 Jones 14 Reddick 12
Bell 114 Kyle Busch 2016 Reddick 4 Larson 12

Picks (DK pricing shown)

Top Tier:

  • Kyle Larson ($11,500) – Starting 4th.   
  • William Byron ($11,200) – Starting 1st.  
  • Ryan Blaney ($11,300) – Starting 15th.  
  • Chris Bell ($10,800) – Starting 13th

Mid Tier:

  • Kevin Harvick ($9,500) – Starting 3rd.   
  • Tyler Reddick ($9,200) – Starting 10th.   
  • Brad Keselowski ($9,000) – Starting 31st.  
  • Chase Elliott ($8,600) – Starting 20th

Sleepers:

  • Alex Bowman ($7,100) – Starting 23rd.  
  • Chase Briscoe ($7,500) – Starting 26th .  
  • AJ Allmendinger ($6,200) – Starting 32nd.  
  • Ryan Preece ($6,300) – Starting 12th.  

For More GOAT Bets: See Today’s Plays

As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or @GOAT in Discord.

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