NASCAR Cup Series Championship
Phoenix International Speedway
Sunday 11/5/23 3:30 PM
1 mile, Paved
Championship weekend. One of four will be crowned the 2023 champion. Blaney, Bell, Larson, Byron. This is a 312-lap event.
Last Race Notables: Byron won. Larson led 201 laps, Byron led 64 laps, Harvick led 36 laps, Jones led 14 laps. Start/Finish: Reddick 12/3, Harvick 15/5, Briscoe 24/7, Preece 25/12, A. Dillon 30/16.
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, which makes place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely to be two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.
Process:
Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.
Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:
Point Scoring:
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
DraftKings Scoring:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
- 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
- Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Track Stats:
| Last 4 Races | Driver Pts | Previous Winners | Year | Laps Led | Average Finish | ||
| Logano | 182 | Byron | 2022 | Larson | 319 | Blaney | 3 |
| Harvick | 169 | Logano | 2022 | Blaney | 285 | Harvick | 6 |
| Byron | 160 | Briscoe | 2021 | Logano | 191 | Busch | 7.3 |
| Larson | 143 | Larson | 2021 | Elliott | 144 | Logano | 7.8 |
| Briscoe | 133 | Truex | 2020 | Briscoe | 112 | Byron | 10.5 |
| Reddick | 128 | Elliott | 2020 | Byron | 76 | Chastain | 10.8 |
| Logano | 126 | Logano | 2019 | Truex | 72 | Briscoe | 11.8 |
| Busch | 123 | Hamlin | 2019 | Harvick | 37 | Hamlin | 11.8 |
| Chastain | 115 | Kyle Busch | 2018 | Jones | 14 | Reddick | 12 |
| Bell | 114 | Kyle Busch | 2016 | Reddick | 4 | Larson | 12 |
Picks (DK pricing shown)
Top Tier:
- Kyle Larson ($11,500) – Starting 4th.
- William Byron ($11,200) – Starting 1st.
- Ryan Blaney ($11,300) – Starting 15th.
- Chris Bell ($10,800) – Starting 13th.
Mid Tier:
- Kevin Harvick ($9,500) – Starting 3rd.
- Tyler Reddick ($9,200) – Starting 10th.
- Brad Keselowski ($9,000) – Starting 31st.
- Chase Elliott ($8,600) – Starting 20th.
Sleepers:
- Alex Bowman ($7,100) – Starting 23rd.
- Chase Briscoe ($7,500) – Starting 26th .
- AJ Allmendinger ($6,200) – Starting 32nd.
- Ryan Preece ($6,300) – Starting 12th.
For More GOAT Bets: See Today’s Plays
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or @GOAT in Discord.
