Conmann’s UFC Vegas 83 DraftKings Plays – 12/9/23

Conmann UFC DFS Fight Night 12-09

Conmann’s UFC Daily Fantasy Intro:

Today’s UFC Vegas 83 event is an 11-fight card starting at 7:00PM with the card airing in its entirety on ESPN+. We have a $350,000 GPP on DraftKings, $18 per entry! Enjoy the UFC Vegas 83 – DFS Breakdown, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)

Fight Breakdowns: Join Conmann22 in Discord at 4pm EST

DFS Terms Key:

  • I only play DFS on DraftKings, that is why I only mention them specifically and give you my thoughts on how I will be setting my lineups.
  • LOCK BUTTON,” “CORE,” and “ALL IN” are used to describe when I absolutely love a fighter for DFS and will be using him/her in most of my lineups entered.
  • When I say that I will use both fighters in my lineups, as an example, favoring Jones 7/3 or another fraction, that means that I will use each fighter throughout my lineups and favor the fighter mentioned. This fraction is an example of my exposure to each fighter based on 10 lineups entered. In the above case, it would be seven lineups for Jones vs. three for the opposing fighter.
  • When I say I will use each fighter in a couple of lineups where applicable, that means that I will not have over 10 lineups of either side in the fight and I will use each fighter sporadically, if applicable.

Rayanne dos Santos vs. Talita Alencar (women’s)

Notes:
  • Dos Santos has a record of 14-6 with 10 wins by finish including 8 by submission. Rayanne was stopped in 2 of her 6 losses.
  • Alencar is 4-0-1 with 3 wins by submission. “The Problem Child” is making her UFC debut.
  • Dos Santos is making her UFC debut.
DraftKings:
  • Dos Santos: $8,300 / Alencar: $7,900
Analysis:

We have two debuting fighters who did not win on the Contender Series facing off to start the event. Alencar fought to a draw, and Dos Santos lost via unanimous decision to Denise Gomes in 2022. Dos Santos has since gone 3-0 and this is the first fight for Alencar since her draw. Both fighters are black belts in BJJ and prefer to grapple. Do Santos is the better striker and will have a one-inch height and a four-inch reach advantage, in addition to being five years younger. Alencar is a six-time BJJ Champion and will be the stronger grappler, however, she gassed out badly leading to her draw last time out. Very high variance fight.

While I like both fighters for DFS, I have no urgency to play either fighter, but prefer Dos Santos, as I believe she will be the lesser-owned of the two fighters and most likely to win. I will only get to her if she’s the last fighter on a build and her salary fits.

Tatsuro Taira vs. Carlos Hernandez

Notes:
  • Taira is 14-0 with 10 wins by finish, including 7 by submission. 
  • Hernandez is 9-2 with 4 wins by submission. Carlos was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Taira: $9,400 / Hernandez: $6,800
Analysis:

This should play out as a striker vs. grappler matchup, with undefeated Tatsuro Taira, 14-0 with seven wins by submission, against Carlos Hernandez, who is 2-1 in his three UFC fights. Taira has power in his striking and has very good leg kicks, which he uses to set up opportunities to get the fight to the ground, where he excels. Hernandez has good volume and well-rounded striking, but lacks power, as evidenced by zero KO finishes. Hernandez lacking big power and Taira being much better on the ground will give Tatsuro the ability to stand and exchange and pick his spots to engage on the ground. I think Taira has Hernandez covered everywhere here and he is, deservedly, a big favorite. 

I will play Taira in my CORE Draft Kings lineups.

Luana Santos vs. Stephanie Egger (women’s)

Notes:
  • Santos is 6-1 with 4 wins by finish. 
  • Egger is 8-4 with 7 wins by finish. Stephanie was submitted in 2 of her 4 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Santos: $8,600 / Egger: $7,600
Analysis:

Stephanie Egger is someone that I cannot trust with my money, as she has proven to be a volatile fighter with extreme randomness where one fight, she looks great, and the next, she shows poor fight IQ, which collectively leads to a middling 3-3 UFC record. Luana Santos won her UFC debut against the atrocious Juliana Miller, which is hard to rank where she stands. Egger and Santos are both from Judo backgrounds and prefer to grapple, although Santos is a decent striker with some power from what I have seen. Egger lacks in the striking department and it is unknown as of now to me who will be the better Judo player/grappler. Luana is 12 years younger than Egger, which I like, but there are too many unknown variables for me to confidently place a bet.

I have no urgency to play either fighter, but prefer Egger due to her price and her being a buy-low spot after a couple of sketchy performances. I will only get to her if last fighter on a build and here salary fits in GPP contests.

Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa

Notes:
  • Garcia is 14-5 with 11 wins by KO. “Mean Machine” was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses. 
  • Costa is 20-6 with 13 wins by finish. “Melk” was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Garcia: $7,200 / Costa: $9,000
Analysis:

This fight was rescheduled after they were to face off last week prior to Garcia falling ill and leading to the cancellation. This will be a fun fight between two exciting fighters and a big test for Melquizael Costa, who picked up his first UFC win in his last fight to even his record out at 1-1. Garcia is on a two-fight winning streak and is 3-2 in his five career UFC fights. Costa is a volume striker and has subpar takedown defense. Garcia will be the bigger fighter with a two-inch height and a four-inch reach advantage, which will be a big edge, as “Mean Machine” is a striker with big power, as evidenced by his 11 of 14 wins by KO. This will be pretty even on the feet and Garcia will have the grappling edge.

I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, splitting my exposure close to 50/50.

Hyun Sung Park vs. Shannon Ross

Notes:
  • Park is 8-0 with 7 wins by finish. 
  • Ross is 12-8 with 7 wins by finish, including 6 wins by KO. “The Turkish Delight” was stopped in 5 of his 8 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Park: $9,500 / Reese: $6,700
Analysis:

Shannon Ross will be fighting for his UFC career, as he is 0-2 with both losses by first round KO and he will be facing an undefeated Korean prospect who is six years younger and won his UFC debut by submission in Hyun Sung Park. Ross is a striker who gets knocked out often and does not appear to be UFC-caliber. Park is a finisher, with seven of his eight wins inside the distance and has power in his strikes with explosive movements and an unorthodox style. I feel like the wind can blow over Ross at this point and I have ZERO faith in his durability. The eye test shows me an undefeated fighter matched up vs. a fighter with his bags packed and on his way out the door.

I will play Park in my DraftKings lineups.

Kenan Song vs. Kevin Jousset

Notes:
  • Song is 20-7 with 17 wins by finish.  “The Assassin” was KO in 4 of his 7 losses.
  • Jousset is 9-2 with 5 wins by finish. “Air” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Song: $7,700 / Jousset: $8,500
Analysis:

Kevin Jousset won his UFC debut last time out via impressive first round finish and is a City Kickboxing fighter out of New Zealand. Kenan Song is 5-3 in his eight UFC fights and a stern test for Jousset, as “The Assassin” has faced a good level of competition thus far in the UFC. Song has big power and, in most fights, lands a knockdown of his opponent and has been sat down a couple of times himself due to his reckless style and questionable durability. Jousset does not have a skillset that jumps off the page and blows me away, looking more like an average fighter. I think this is a step down in competition for Song, who just beat a very tough Rolando Bedoya in his last fight, whereas this will be the toughest test for “Air” Jousset.

I will play Song in my GPP DraftKings lineups.

Jun Yong Park vs. Andre Muniz

Notes:
  • Park is 17-5 with 11 wins by finish. “The Iron Turtle” was stopped in 3 of his 5 losses.
  • Muniz is 23-6 with 19 wins by finish, including 15 by submission. “Sergipano” was stopped in all 6 of his losses.
DraftKings:
  • Park: $8,800 / Muniz: $7,400
Analysis:

Andre Muniz is on a two-fight losing streak, losing both fights by finish, and he will be taking on the surging Jun Yong Park, who has won his last four UFC fights and seven of his last eight. Muniz is a very high-level black belt in BJJ and has 15 of his 23 wins by submission. Park is a well-rounded fighter with good volume striking and good grappling. Muniz has shown cardio issues, which could be a big problem here vs. “The Iron Turtle,” as he likes to weaponize his volume striking with pressure and is always moving forward in the face of his opponents. Muniz is the bigger man and will have a three-inch height and a five-inch reach advantage. This might be a buy-low spot on Muniz, but I am not confident enough to bet it, as his cardio issues really scare me. Park will take over later if he is able to survive the early aggression of Muniz. 

I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, splitting my exposure close to 50/50.

Tim Elliott vs. Su Mudaerji

Notes:
  • Elliott is 19-13-1 with 9 wins by finish. Tim was stopped in 7 of his 13 losses.
  • Mudaerji is 16-5 with 14 wins by finish, including 13 by KO. “Tibetan Eagle” was submitted in all 5 of his losses.
DraftKings:
  • Elliott: $8,400 / Mudaerji: $7,100
Analysis:

Tim Elliott takes this fight as a late notice replacement on four days’ notice and last fought just five weeks ago, losing via third round submission to undefeated phenom, Muhammad Mokaev. Mudaerji is coming off a submission loss, but is 3-2 overall in his five UFC fights. Elliott is a high-paced striker and high-level wrestler who averages four takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. Mudaerji is returning after a 1.5-year layoff and is predominantly a striker with big power, as shown through his 13 KO victories in his 16 wins. The “Tibetan Eagle” lacks in the grappling department and has been submitted in all five of his losses, setting this fight up to be a striker vs. grappler affair. I think Mudaerji either gets the early KO or Elliott gets the submission, making this fight a VIOLENCE spot that I like to end inside the distance. 

I will play Elliott in my DraftKings lineups and also have a few GPP lineups with Mudaerji in multi-entry contests.

Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Notes:
  • Haqparast is 15-5 with 9 wins by KO. Nasrat was stopped in 2 of his 5 losses.
  • Mullarkey is 17-6 with 13 wins by finish, including 10 by KO. Jamie was KO in 4 of his 6 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Haqparast: $8,700 / Mullarkey: $7,500
Analysis:

Nasrat Haqparast enters on a two-fight winning streak and Jamie Mullarkey won his last time out and has won three of his last five fights. Haqparast is a high-volume striker with good movement and good takedown defense and looks to keep fights standing. Mullarkey is also a high-volume striker and the better wrestler of the two, however, he is also a bit “chinny,” having been KO in four of his six losses. I trust Haqparast more in this spot.

I will have low to no ownership in my DFS lineups on this fight, as I see a lackluster decision result.

Anthony Smith vs. Khalil Rountree

Notes:
  • Smith is 37-18 with 34 wins by finish. “Lionheart” was stopped in 14 of his 18 losses.
  • Rountree is 12-5 with 8 wins by KO. “The War Horse” was stopped in 3 of his 5 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Smith: $7,300 / Rountree: $8,900
Analysis:

With 55 career fights spanning over 15 years and now at 35 years old, Anthony Smith is showing a lot of wear and tear on his body and movements lately in his fights. However, he is still able to get it done, as he won his last time out vs. Ryan Spann. Khalil Rountree has huge power and very crisp and technical Muay Thai and has looked great as of late, riding a four-fight winning streak with three KO wins. “The War Horse” is a dangerous striker with power and has eight of his 12 wins by KO, but severely lacks in the defensive wrestling and grappling department, which could be a major concern in Smith decided to wrestle, which he should desire to do. Smith is a finisher, with 34 of his 37 wins inside the distance and has been stopped in 14 of his 18 losses, making him a kill or be killed fighter. Smith took this fight on late notice, only adding to the path of this fight not seeing the judges. VIOLENCE spot. Either fighter gets the KO or Smith by submission is the call. I favor Rountree, but prefer the violence spot either way.

I prefer Rountree in my DraftKings lineups, but will have some Smith in GPP tournaments.

Yadong Song vs. Chris Gutierrez

Notes:
  • Song is 20-7-1 with 12 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “Kung Fu Kid” was KO in 2 of his 7 losses.
  • Gutierrez is 20-5-2 with 10 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “El Guapo” was submitted in 1 of his 5 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Song: $9,200 / Gutierrez: $7,000
Analysis:

The Main Event! A fun fight between two exciting strikers with power. Gutierrez is one of the best leg kickers in all of MMA, which is a blessing and a detriment, as if his opponents figure out and deal with range, he has no other offensive weapons and generally succumbs to better grapplers. Yadong Song has a blend of speed and power with his strikes and fights at a very high pace. “Kung Fu Kid” has won four of his last five fights, three by KO. This fight should be entertaining for as long as it lasts and Song will most likely get the win. However, I am not sold on him as a -380 favorite.

I will play Yadong in my DFS lineups.

Favorite DFS Spend Up Plays:

  • $9,500 – H. Park
  • $9,400 – Taira
  • $8,900 – Rountree

Favorite DFS Value Plays:

  • $8,400 – Elliott
  • $7,600 – Egger

Favorite DFS Salary Saver Plays:

  • $7,700 – Song
  • $7,400 – Muniz

Continue Reading: Conmann’s UFC Vegas 83 Betting Blueprint

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