Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:
Today’s UFC Vegas 83 event is an 11-fight card starting at 7:00PM with the card airing in its entirety on ESPN+. We have five total bets! Enjoy the UFC Vegas 83 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)
Fight Breakdowns: Join @Conmann22 in Discord at 4pm EST
Betting Terms Key:
- ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
- Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
- Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”
Rayanne dos Santos vs. Talita Alencar (women’s)
Notes:
- Dos Santos has a record of 14-6 with 10 wins by finish including 8 by submission. Rayanne was stopped in 2 of her 6 losses.
- Alencar is 4-0-1 with 3 wins by submission. “The Problem Child” is making her UFC debut.
- Dos Santos is making her UFC debut.
Analysis:
We have two debuting fighters who did not win on the Contender Series facing off to start the event. Alencar fought to a draw, and Dos Santos lost via unanimous decision to Denise Gomes in 2022. Dos Santos has since gone 3-0 and this is the first fight for Alencar since her draw. Both fighters are black belts in BJJ and prefer to grapple. Do Santos is the better striker and will have a one-inch height and a four-inch reach advantage, in addition to being five years younger. Alencar is a six-time BJJ Champion and will be the stronger grappler, however, she gassed out badly leading to her draw last time out. Very high variance fight and one that I will not bet on, No Bet.
Tatsuro Taira vs. Carlos Hernandez
Notes:
- Taira is 14-0 with 10 wins by finish, including 7 by submission.
- Hernandez is 9-2 with 4 wins by submission. Carlos was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:
This should play out as a striker vs. grappler matchup, with undefeated Tatsuro Taira, 14-0 with seven wins by submission, against Carlos Hernandez, who is 2-1 in his three UFC fights. Taira has power in his striking and has very good leg kicks, which he uses to set up opportunities to get the fight to the ground, where he excels. Hernandez has good volume and well-rounded striking, but lacks power, as evidenced by zero KO finishes. Hernandez lacking big power and Taira being much better on the ground will give Tatsuro the ability to stand and exchange and pick his spots to engage on the ground. I think Taira has Hernandez covered everywhere here and he is, deservedly, a big favorite. I bet on Taira ITD and used him in a parlay.
Luana Santos vs. Stephanie Egger (women’s)
Notes:
- Santos is 6-1 with 4 wins by finish.
- Egger is 8-4 with 7 wins by finish. Stephanie was submitted in 2 of her 4 losses.
Analysis:
Stephanie Egger is someone that I cannot trust with my money, as she has proven to be a volatile fighter with extreme randomness where one fight, she looks great, and the next, she shows poor fight IQ, which collectively leads to a middling 3-3 UFC record. Luana Santos won her UFC debut against the atrocious Juliana Miller, which is hard to rank where she stands. Egger and Santos are both from Judo backgrounds and prefer to grapple, although Santos is a decent striker with some power from what I have seen. Egger lacks in the striking department and it is unknown as of now to me who will be the better Judo player/grappler. Luana is 12 years younger than Egger, which I like, but there are too many unknown variables for me to confidently place a bet. Pass, No Bet.
Steve Garcia vs. Melquizael Costa
Notes:
- Garcia is 14-5 with 11 wins by KO. “Mean Machine” was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses.
- Costa is 20-6 with 13 wins by finish. “Melk” was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:
This fight was rescheduled after they were to face off last week prior to Garcia falling ill and leading to the cancellation. This will be a fun fight between two exciting fighters and a big test for Melquizael Costa, who picked up his first UFC win in his last fight to even his record out at 1-1. Garcia is on a two-fight winning streak and is 3-2 in his five career UFC fights. Costa is a volume striker and has subpar takedown defense. Garcia will be the bigger fighter with a two-inch height and a four-inch reach advantage, which will be a big edge, as “Mean Machine” is a striker with big power, as evidenced by his 11 of 14 wins by KO. This will be pretty even on the feet and Garcia will have the grappling edge. This is a big line with Costa the favorite at -250 and I will gladly bet on Garcia at this underdog price in this “show me spot.” I bet Garcia +215, risking 1 to win 2.15 units.
Hyun Sung Park vs. Shannon Ross
Notes:
- Park is 8-0 with 7 wins by finish.
- Ross is 12-8 with 7 wins by finish, including 6 wins by KO. “The Turkish Delight” was stopped in 5 of his 8 losses.
Analysis:
Shannon Ross will be fighting for his UFC career, as he is 0-2 with both losses by first round KO and he will be facing an undefeated Korean prospect who is six years younger and won his UFC debut by submission in Hyun Sung Park. Ross is a striker who gets knocked out often and does not appear to be UFC-caliber. Park is a finisher, with seven of his eight wins inside the distance and has power in his strikes with explosive movements and an unorthodox style. I feel like the wind can blow over Ross at this point and I have ZERO faith in his durability. The eye test shows me an undefeated fighter matched up vs. a fighter with his bags packed and on his way out the door. I bet Park to win inside the distance and used him in a parlay.
Kenan Song vs. Kevin Jousset
Notes:
- Song is 20-7 with 17 wins by finish. “The Assassin” was KO in 4 of his 7 losses.
- Jousset is 9-2 with 5 wins by finish. “Air” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:
Kevin Jousset won his UFC debut last time out via impressive first round finish and is a City Kickboxing fighter out of New Zealand. Kenan Song is 5-3 in his eight UFC fights and a stern test for Jousset, as “The Assassin” has faced a good level of competition thus far in the UFC. Song has big power and, in most fights, lands a knockdown of his opponent and has been sat down a couple of times himself due to his reckless style and questionable durability. Jousset does not have a skillset that jumps off the page and blows me away, looking more like an average fighter. I think this is a step down in competition for Song, who just beat a very tough Rolando Bedoya in his last fight, whereas this will be the toughest test for “Air” Jousset. I bet Song at +135, risking 1 to win 1.35 units.
Jun Yong Park vs. Andre Muniz
Notes:
- Park is 17-5 with 11 wins by finish. “The Iron Turtle” was stopped in 3 of his 5 losses.
- Muniz is 23-6 with 19 wins by finish, including 15 by submission. “Sergipano” was stopped in all 6 of his losses.
Analysis:
Andre Muniz is on a two-fight losing streak, losing both fights by finish, and he will be taking on the surging Jun Yong Park, who has won his last four UFC fights and seven of his last eight. Muniz is a very high-level black belt in BJJ and has 15 of his 23 wins by submission. Park is a well-rounded fighter with good volume striking and good grappling. Muniz has shown cardio issues, which could be a big problem here vs. “The Iron Turtle,” as he likes to weaponize his volume striking with pressure and is always moving forward in the face of his opponents. Muniz is the bigger man and will have a three-inch height and a five-inch reach advantage. This might be a buy-low spot on Muniz, but I am not confident enough to bet it, as his cardio issues really scare me. Park will take over later if he is able to survive the early aggression of Muniz. Pass, No Bet.
Tim Elliott vs. Su Mudaerji
Notes:
- Elliott is 19-13-1 with 9 wins by finish. Tim was stopped in 7 of his 13 losses.
- Mudaerji is 16-5 with 14 wins by finish, including 13 by KO. “Tibetan Eagle” was submitted in all 5 of his losses.
Analysis:
Tim Elliott takes this fight as a late notice replacement on four days’ notice and last fought just five weeks ago, losing via third round submission to undefeated phenom, Muhammad Mokaev. Mudaerji is coming off a submission loss, but is 3-2 overall in his five UFC fights. Elliott is a high-paced striker and high-level wrestler who averages four takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. Mudaerji is returning after a 1.5-year layoff and is predominantly a striker with big power, as shown through his 13 KO victories in his 16 wins. The “Tibetan Eagle” lacks in the grappling department and has been submitted in all five of his losses, setting this fight up to be a striker vs. grappler affair. I think Mudaerji either gets the early KO or Elliott gets the submission, making this fight a VIOLENCE spot that I like to end inside the distance. I bet fight ITD and used it in a parlay.
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Jamie Mullarkey
Notes:
- Haqparast is 15-5 with 9 wins by KO. Nasrat was stopped in 2 of his 5 losses.
- Mullarkey is 17-6 with 13 wins by finish, including 10 by KO. Jamie was KO in 4 of his 6 losses.
Analysis:
Nasrat Haqparast enters on a two-fight winning streak and Jamie Mullarkey won his last time out and has won three of his last five fights. Haqparast is a high-volume striker with good movement and good takedown defense and looks to keep fights standing. Mullarkey is also a high-volume striker and the better wrestler of the two, however, he is also a bit “chinny,” having been KO in four of his six losses. I trust Haqparast more in this spot, but do not want to lay the -190 on him leading to a pass. No Bet.
Anthony Smith vs. Khalil Rountree
Notes:
- Smith is 37-18 with 34 wins by finish. “Lionheart” was stopped in 14 of his 18 losses.
- Rountree is 12-5 with 8 wins by KO. “The War Horse” was stopped in 3 of his 5 losses.
Analysis:
With 55 career fights spanning over 15 years and now at 35 years old, Anthony Smith is showing a lot of wear and tear on his body and movements lately in his fights. However, he is still able to get it done, as he won his last time out vs. Ryan Spann. Khalil Rountree has huge power and very crisp and technical Muay Thai and has looked great as of late, riding a four-fight winning streak with three KO wins. “The War Horse” is a dangerous striker with power and has eight of his 12 wins by KO, but severely lacks in the defensive wrestling and grappling department, which could be a major concern in Smith decided to wrestle, which he should desire to do. Smith is a finisher, with 34 of his 37 wins inside the distance and has been stopped in 14 of his 18 losses, making him a kill or be killed fighter. Smith took this fight on late notice, only adding to the path of this fight not seeing the judges. VIOLENCE spot. Either fighter gets the KO or Smith by submission is the call. I favor Rountree, but prefer the violence spot either way. I bet fight to end ITD and used it in a parlay.
Yadong Song vs. Chris Gutierrez
Notes:
- Song is 20-7-1 with 12 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “Kung Fu Kid” was KO in 2 of his 7 losses.
- Gutierrez is 20-5-2 with 10 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “El Guapo” was submitted in 1 of his 5 losses.
Analysis:
The Main Event! A fun fight between two exciting strikers with power. Gutierrez is one of the best leg kickers in all of MMA, which is a blessing and a detriment, as if his opponents figure out and deal with range, he has no other offensive weapons and generally succumbs to better grapplers. Yadong Song has a blend of speed and power with his strikes and fights at a very high pace. “Kung Fu Kid” has won four of his last five fights, three by KO. This fight should be entertaining for as long as it lasts and Song will most likely get the win. However, I am not sold on him as a -380 favorite. Pass, No Bet.
UFC Vegas 83 – Official Bets:
- 7:00: Taira ITD/H. Park ITD parlay +134 (3 to win 4.03 units)
- 7:00: Taira, H. Park, & Smith/Rountree fight ITD parlay -141 (4.23 to win 3 units)
- 7:00: Garcia +215 (1 to win 2.15 units)
- 7:00: K. Song +135 (1 to win 1.35 units)
- 7:00: Elliott/Mudaerji fight ITD & Song Yadong parlay +100 (1 to win 1 unit)
