Conmann’s Daily UFC DraftKings Plays – 8/26/23

Conmann's DraftKings UFC Betting/DFS Plays

Conmann’s UFC Daily Fantasy Intro:

Saturday’s UFC Singapore event is a 13-fight card starting at 5:00AM airing in its entirety on ESPN+. We have a $350,000 GPP on DraftKings, $18 per entry! Enjoy the UFC Singapore – DFS Breakdown, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)

DFS Terms Key:

  • I only play DFS on DraftKings, that is why I only mention them specifically and give you my thoughts on how I will be setting my lineups.
  • LOCK BUTTON,” “CORE,” and “ALL IN” are used to describe when I absolutely love a fighter for DFS and will be using him/her in most of my lineups entered.
  • When I say that I will use both fighters in my lineups, as an example, favoring Jones 7/3 or another fraction, that means that I will use each fighter throughout my lineups and favor the fighter mentioned. This fraction is an example of my exposure to each fighter based on 10 lineups entered. In the above case, it would be seven lineups for Jones vs. three for the opposing fighter.
  • When I say I will use each fighter in a couple of lineups where applicable, that means that I will not have over 10 lineups of either side in the fight and I will use each fighter sporadically, if applicable.

Seung Woo Choi vs. Jarno Errens

Notes:
  • Choi has a record of 10-6 with 6 wins by KO. “Sting” was stopped in 4 of his 6 losses. 
  • Errens is 13-4-1 with 8 wins by finish. Jarno was submitted in 1 of his 4 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Choi: $8,800 / Errens: $7,400
Analysis:

In the opening bout starting at 5:00AM EST, we have Seung Woo Choi, who is 3-5 in eight UFC fights, taking on Jarno Errens,who dropped his UFC debut last time out. Choi is a good kickboxer with knockout power and has six of his 10 wins by KO. Errens has a kickboxing background and striking style and has shown that he can grapple as well. Choi has shown durability issues and, in addition to getting hit early and often, “Sting” was stopped in four of his six losses. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, favoring Errens 7/3.

Na Liang vs. JJ Aldrich (women’s)

Notes:
  • Liang has a record of 19-6 with 17 wins by finish. “Dragon Girl” was stopped in 5 of her 6 losses.
  • Aldrich is 11-6 with 2 wins by KO. JJ was stopped in 3 of her 6 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Liang: $6,800 / Aldrich: $9,400
Analysis:

This is a not much interest fight for me between two fighters each coming in on a two-fight losing streak. One glaring difference is that Liang is 0-2 in the UFC, losing both times by Knockout, and is still searching for her first UFC win and Aldrich has a 7-5 UFC record with wins over good fighters, including Gillian Robertson and Polyana Viana. Liang is a kill or be killed fighter and has 17 wins by finish, all but one in the first round, and she was finished in five of her six losses. Aldrich is not much of a finisher, but she can get one here by wearing on Liang. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, favoring Aldrich 7/3.

Billy Goff vs. Yusaku Kinoshita

Notes:
  • Goff is 8-2 with 6 wins by KO. Billy was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
  • Kinoshita is 6-2 with all 6 wins by finish. Yusaku was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Goff: $7,800 / Kinoshita: $8,400
Analysis:

This fight should be a banger and one that I do not anticipate will require the judges’ scorecards. Billy Goff is making his UFC debut after winning by first round knockout on last year’s contender series and Kinoshita dropped his UFC debut by first round TKO. Goff is a good wrestler who fights at a high pace and has good power. Kinoshita has big power with his strikes, but his wrestling did not look good in the short time that we saw of him last time out, as his opponent, Adam Fugitt, was able to take him down four times in less than a round. That could be a big problem against the wrestling and pace of Goff. Both fighters are live for a finish here and I like Goff as the side and the fight to end inside the distance. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, favoring Goff 7/3.

Kenan Song vs. Rolando Bedoya

Notes:
  • Song is 19-7 with 17 wins by finish.  “The Assassin” was KO in 4 of his 7 losses.
  • Bedoya is 14-2 with 7 wins by finish.
DraftKings:
  • Song: $7,000 / Bedoya: $9,200
Analysis:

Rolando Bedoya is making his second walk to the UFC Octagon after dropping his debut via split decision in a great fight vs. “Khaos” Williams. Bedoya threw 149 significant strikes and proved to be very durable with an iron chin, as he was rocked several times and ate them and kept coming. Song is on a two-fight losing streak, having been knocked out in both losses, and is 4-3 in his seven UFC fights. “The Assassin” is a very powerful, one-dimensional striker, and has 17 of his 19 wins by finish. Neither of these fighters like to grapple and I anticipate a standup war that will be fun to watch. I like the durability and three-inch reach advantage of Bedoya to get the job done. Give me “The Machine” to win. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, favoring Bedoya 7/3.

Chidi Njokuani vs. Michel Oleksiejczuk

Notes:
  • Njokuani is 22-9 with 15 wins by finish, including 14 by KO. “Chidi Bang Bang” was stopped in 7 of his 9 losses. 
  • Oleksiejczuk is 18-6 with 14 wins by finish, including 13 by KO. “Hussar” was stopped in 5 of his 6 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Njokuani: $8,000 / Oleksiejczuk: $8,200
Analysis:

This will be a striking battle between two kickboxers with durability issues. Chidi Njokuani and Michel Oleksiejczuk have been finished in 12 of their combined 15 losses. Njokuani is on a two-fight losing streak and has big power with his strikes. “Chidi Bang Bang” will have a three-inch height and a six-inch reach advantage and will look to use his strikes and range to keep Oleksiejczuk, who has more of a boxing style, on the outside. Both fighters struggle when facing grapplers and each need not worry here as both men do not go for takedowns and prefer to bang. I think one of these guys will clip the other and get the finish, I am just not confident in choosing a side. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, splitting my exposure close to 50/50.

Toshiomi Kazama vs. Garrett Armfield

Notes:
  • Kazama is 10-3 with 8 wins by finish. “Silent Finisher” was KO in 2 of his 3 losses.
  • Armfield is 8-3 with 7 wins by KO. Garrett was submitted in 2 of his 3 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Kazama: $7,500 / Armfield: $8,700

Analysis:

Toshiomi Kazama and Garrett Armfield will each be seeking their first UFC win, as both fighters dropped their UFC debut by finish. This fight is a striker vs. grappler matchup. Armfield is returning after a little over a year and he will have to look to keep this fight standing vs. the solid and exciting grappling attack of Kazama. Kazama has very good grappling and has five of his 10 wins by submission. I think that this is a great matchup for Kazama as a thank you for being fed to undefeated phenom Rinya Nakamura, who took just 33 seconds to KO Kazama. Armfield is a finisher, with seven wins inside the distance, including six in the first round. Armfield’s biggest weakness is Kazama’s specialty. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, splitting my exposure close to 50/50.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Lukasz Brzeski

Notes:
  • Cortes-Acosta is 9-1 with 5 wins by finish. 
  • Brzeski is 8-3-1 with 7 wins by finish. Lukasz was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Cortes-Acosta: $9,100 / Brzeski: $7,100
Analysis:

Two Contender Series contract winners will meet in this Heavyweight matchup. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is 2-1 in three UFC fights and is a high-volume striker with a boxing style and a strong jab. Brzeski is 0-2 during his UFC tenure thus far and is big and powerful and fights at a high pace with good volume. Both fighters struggle vs. the takedown, and I envision a striking slog fest that either fighter can win. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, splitting my exposure close to 50/50.

Junior Tafa vs. Parker Porter

Notes:
  • Tafa is 4-1 with 4 wins by KO. 
  • Porter Is 13-8 with 9 wins by finish. Parker was stopped in 7 of his 8 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Tafa: $8,600 / Porter: $7,600
Analysis:

Junior Tafa is coming off his UFC debut, which was a loss, and one of the worst performances that I can recall in recent memory as Tafa looked completely clueless in all aspects of fighting, except striking. “The Juggernaut” was from his nickname and maybe this is a bounce back spot for him in the featured prelim vs. Parker Porter, but he is very hard to trust with our money. Porter is 4-3 in his seven UFC fights and is a high-paced striker who has also shown that he can wrestle a bit when needed. That is definitely something that Parker should look to do early and often vs. Tafa, who has a lot of power, and although green in MMA, he has an extensive kickboxing background. This is another fight that I anticipate to end early and not need the judges. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, splitting my exposure close to 50/50.

Erin Blanchfield vs. Taila Santos (women’s)

Notes:
  • Blanchfield is 11-1 with 6 wins by finish.
  • Santos is 19-2 with 13 wins by finish, including 10 by KO.
DraftKings:
  • Blanchfield: $8,500 / Santos: $7,700
Analysis:

What a great fight to kick off the Main Card between two top of the division fighters. Talia Santos fought Valentina Shevchenko her last time out and dropped a split decision in a fight that many people thought that she won. Santos used her high-level grappling to neutralize and control the former Champion. Erin Blanchfield is a spectacular grappler in her own right and is 5-0 with three submissions in her surging UFC career. Santos will have a two-inch height and reach advantage and will look to bully Erin in there as the bigger and more experienced fighter and will be the toughest test of Blanchfield’s career. “Cold Blooded” is a BJJ black belt and a great wrestler, averaging four takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. I like Blanchfield here to be a step ahead in the grappling advantages and she is also a capable striker. I think Erin’s speed advantage will also come into play here. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, splitting my exposure close to 50/50.

Rinya Nakamura vs. Fernie Garcia

Notes:
  • Nakamura is 7-0 with 6 wins by finish. 
  • Garcia is 10-3 with 4 wins by finish.
DraftKings:
  • Nakamura: $9,600Garcia: $6,600
Analysis:

Rinya Nakamura is a beast of a prospect, undefeated at 7-0 with six wins by finish. “Hybrid” has huge power in his strikes and is a very high-level wrestler. I doubt that the UFC decided to ship in Fernie Garcia, who is 0-2 in the UFC, to feature on the Main Card in Singapore to get the win. This is a sacrifice for Nakamura, and it is his fight to win however he would like to do so. Garcia is a low-level striker with a boxing style and lacks finishing ability, with only four finishes in 13 career fights. Garcia is just a live body for Nakamura to style on. He is the biggest favorite on the card, but Nakamura wins however he chooses. I will play Nakamura in my CORE DraftKings lineups.

Giga Chikadze vs. Alex Caceres

Notes:
  • Chikadze is 14-3 with 10 wins inside the distance, including 9 by KO. “Ninja” was submitted in 1 of his 3 losses.
  • Caceres is 21-13 with 11 wins by finish. “Bruce LeeRoy” was stopped in 8 of his 13 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Chikadze: $9,000 / Caceres: $7,200
Analysis:

This is an intriguing matchup between longtime UFC veteran Alex “Bruce LeeRoy” Caceres, who is 16-11-1 in his 28 UFC fights and on a two-fight winning streak, facing Giga Chikadze, who is returning to action after a 1.5-year layoff. We last saw “Ninja” drop a unanimous decision to Calvin Kattar in a five-round Main Event where he threw 128 significant strikes in a losing effort. Caceres is very well-rounded and is a long striker with not much volume or power and is a black belt in BJJ. One of “Bruce LeeRoy’s” biggest edges in his fights is his experience and veteran savvy, but Alex might need more than that to get by Chikadze, who is a sniper with his pinpoint striking that carries power, precision, and speed. Caceres will need to wrestle, and control Chikadze for large chunks of this fight to win or somehow find the back and get a choke. I think Giga will be able to keep the fight standing for the most part and paint Caceres from the outside and most likely get the finish. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, favoring Chikadze 7/3.

Anthony Smith vs. Ryan Spann

Notes:
  • Smith is 36-18 with 33 wins by finish. “Lionheart” was stopped in 14 of his 18 losses.
  • Spann is 21-8 with 18 wins by finish, including 12 by submission. “Superman” was stopped in 6 of his 8 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Smith: $7,900 / Spann: $8,300
Analysis:

This is a rematch from a fight that Anthony Smith won via rear naked choke in September of 2021. Since that fight, Spann has gone 2-1 with all three fights ending in the first round. In fact, all six of “Superman’s” last six fights have ended in the first round. Anthony Smith has had a long and storied career, with 54 career fights, and since his win over Spann, is 0-2 and has not looked good. Smith is a black belt in BJJ and has always had capable striking, but I just think that he is at the end of his road as a fighter and already has a successful career in the booth as a commentator. I am not sure why this rematch was made, but I have sneaky suspicion that Smith will retire after the fight, and if he performs like he did last time out, I understand why the UFC snuck it on a Singapore card at 5:00 in the morning, so no one will remember seeing Smith sputter on the way out. I lean Spann here in rematch, but I really prefer VIOLENCE here, as I do not think this fight will make it out of the first round, let alone go the full 15 minutes.I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, favoring Spann 7/3.

Max Holloway vs. Chan Sung Jung

Notes:
  • Holloway is 24-7 with 12 wins by finish, including 10 by KO. “Blessed” was submitted in 1 of his 7 losses.
  • Jung is 17-7 with 14 wins by finish. “The Korean Zombie” was KO in 4 of his 7 losses.
DraftKings:
  • Holloway: $9,700 / Jung: $6,500
Analysis:

Interesting fight in the Main Event and one that I think will result in a drubbing by Max Holloway over the “Korean Zombie.” Holloway is astoundingly only 31 years old and still in peak form, whereas the Zombie is a worn 36 years old and has looked a step slow in his last couple of fights. Furthermore, Jung is talking about retirement, which as you know if you have been following me for awhile, is one of my favorite betting edges, which is to bet against a fighter who is retiring after a booked fight or one that is even mulling it. Fighting is 80% mental and that is not the correct headspace to be in heading into war. I envision Holloway putting a pace on the Zombie for as long as he can take it, whether it is for the full five rounds in a very lopsided decision, or perhaps, finishing him. I will play Holloway in my DraftKings lineups.

Continue Reading: Conmann’s UFC Singapore Betting Blueprint

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