Conmann’s 8/26/23 UFC Singapore Betting Blueprint

Conmann's DraftKings UFC Betting/DFS Plays

Saturday’s UFC Singapore event is a 13-fight card starting at 5:00AM airing in its entirety on ESPN+. We have seven total bets including a 10-unit Bomb and two, five-unit Bombs! Enjoy the UFC Singapore – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)

Betting Terms Key:

  • ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
  • Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
  • Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”

Seung Woo Choi vs. Jarno Errens

Notes:
  • Choi has a record of 10-6 with 6 wins by KO. “Sting” was stopped in 4 of his 6 losses. 
  • Errens is 13-4-1 with 8 wins by finish. Jarno was submitted in 1 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:

In the opening bout starting at 5:00AM EST, we have Seung Woo Choi, who is 3-5 in eight UFC fights, taking on Jarno Errens,who dropped his UFC debut last time out. Choi is a good kickboxer with knockout power and has six of his 10 wins by KO. Errens has a kickboxing background and striking style and has shown that he can grapple as well. Choi has shown durability issues and, in addition to getting hit early and often, “Sting” was stopped in four of his six losses. I like Errens in this matchup to win. I bet Errens +3.5 rounds on DraftKings -130 risking 1.3 to win 1 unit. I will play both fighters in my Draft Kings lineups favoring Errens 7/3. *If you do not have DraftKings access, play Errens on the Moneyline.

Na Liang vs. JJ Aldrich (women’s)

Notes:
  • Liang has a record of 19-6 with 17 wins by finish. “Dragon Girl” was stopped in 5 of her 6 losses.
  • Aldrich is 11-6 with 2 wins by KO. JJ was stopped in 3 of her 6 losses.
Analysis:

This is a not much interest fight for me between two fighters each coming in on a two-fight losing streak. One glaring difference is that Liang is 0-2 in the UFC, losing both times by Knockout, and is still searching for her first UFC win and Aldrich has a 7-5 UFC record with wins over good fighters, including Gillian Robertson and Polyana Viana. Liang is a kill or be killed fighter and has 17 wins by finish, all but one in the first round, and she was finished in five of her six losses. Aldrich is not much of a finisher, but she can get one here by wearing on Liang. HUGE line with Aldrich at -700. I will pass with no bet, but my pick is Aldrich. No Bet.

Billy Goff vs. Yusaku Kinoshita

Notes:
  • Goff is 8-2 with 6 wins by KO. Billy was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
  • Kinoshita is 6-2 with all 6 wins by finish. Yusaku was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:

This fight should be a banger and one that I do not anticipate will require the judges’ scorecards. Billy Goff is making his UFC debut after winning by first round knockout on last year’s contender series and Kinoshita dropped his UFC debut by first round TKO. Goff is a good wrestler who fights at a high pace and has good power. Kinoshita has big power with his strikes, but his wrestling did not look good in the short time that we saw of him last time out, as his opponent, Adam Fugitt, was able to take him down four times in less than a round. That could be a big problem against the wrestling and pace of Goff. Both fighters are live for a finish here and I like Goff as the side and the fight to end inside the distance. I bet fight ITD and used it as a parlay piece. 

Kenan Song vs. Rolando Bedoya

Notes:
  • Song is 19-7 with 17 wins by finish.  “The Assassin” was KO in 4 of his 7 losses.
  • Bedoya is 14-2 with 7 wins by finish.
Analysis:

Rolando Bedoya is making his second walk to the UFC Octagon after dropping his debut via split decision in a great fight vs. “Khaos” Williams. Bedoya threw 149 significant strikes and proved to be very durable with an iron chin, as he was rocked several times and ate them and kept coming. Song is on a two-fight losing streak, having been knocked out in both losses, and is 4-3 in his seven UFC fights. “The Assassin” is a very powerful, one-dimensional striker, and has 17 of his 19 wins by finish. Neither of these fighters like to grapple and I anticipate a standup war that will be fun to watch. I like the durability and three-inch reach advantage of Bedoya to get the job done. Give me “The Machine” to win. I bet Bedoya and used him as a parlay piece.

Chidi Njokuani vs. Michel Oleksiejczuk

Notes:
  • Njokuani is 22-9 with 15 wins by finish, including 14 by KO. “Chidi Bang Bang” was stopped in 7 of his 9 losses. 
  • Oleksiejczuk is 18-6 with 14 wins by finish, including 13 by KO. “Hussar” was stopped in 5 of his 6 losses.
Analysis:

This will be a striking battle between two kickboxers with durability issues. Chidi Njokuani and Michel Oleksiejczuk have been finished in 12 of their combined 15 losses. Njokuani is on a two-fight losing streak and has big power with his strikes. “Chidi Bang Bang” will have a three-inch height and a six-inch reach advantage and will look to use his strikes and range to keep Oleksiejczuk, who has more of a boxing style, on the outside. Both fighters struggle when facing grapplers and each need not worry here as both men do not go for takedowns and prefer to bang. I think one of these guys will clip the other and get the finish, I am just not confident in choosing a side. I chose VIOLENCE. I bet fight ITD and used it as a parlay piece.

Toshiomi Kazama vs. Garrett Armfield

Notes:
  • Kazama is 10-3 with 8 wins by finish. “Silent Finisher” was KO in 2 of his 3 losses.
  • Armfield is 8-3 with 7 wins by KO. Garrett was submitted in 2 of his 3 losses.

Analysis:

Toshiomi Kazama and Garrett Armfield will each be seeking their first UFC win, as both fighters dropped their UFC debut by finish. This fight is a striker vs. grappler matchup. Armfield is returning after a little over a year and he will have to look to keep this fight standing vs. the solid and exciting grappling attack of Kazama. Kazama has very good grappling and has five of his 10 wins by submission. I think that this is a great matchup for Kazama as a thank you for being fed to undefeated phenom Rinya Nakamura, who took just 33 seconds to KO Kazama. Armfield is a finisher, with seven wins inside the distance, including six in the first round. Armfield’s biggest weakness is Kazama’s specialty. I think that the line is mispriced, and I really like the fight to end inside the distance. I bet fight to end inside the distance -190, risking 10 to win 5.26 units. 

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Lukasz Brzeski

Notes:
  • Cortes-Acosta is 9-1 with 5 wins by finish. 
  • Brzeski is 8-3-1 with 7 wins by finish. Lukasz was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:

Two Contender Series contract winners will meet in this Heavyweight matchup. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is 2-1 in three UFC fights and is a high-volume striker with a boxing style and a strong jab. Brzeski is 0-2 during his UFC tenure thus far and is big and powerful and fights at a high pace with good volume. Both fighters struggle vs. the takedown, and I envision a striking slog fest that either fighter can win. I favor the more technical striking of Acosta to get the job done, but not with enough confidence for a bet. I will pass. No Bet.

Junior Tafa vs. Parker Porter

Notes:
  • Tafa is 4-1 with 4 wins by KO. 
  • Porter Is 13-8 with 9 wins by finish. Parker was stopped in 7 of his 8 losses.
Analysis:

Junior Tafa is coming off his UFC debut, which was a loss, and one of the worst performances that I can recall in recent memory as Tafa looked completely clueless in all aspects of fighting, except striking. “The Juggernaut” was from his nickname and maybe this is a bounce back spot for him in the featured prelim vs. Parker Porter, but he is very hard to trust with our money. Porter is 4-3 in his seven UFC fights and is a high-paced striker who has also shown that he can wrestle a bit when needed. That is definitely something that Parker should look to do early and often vs. Tafa, who has a lot of power, and although green in MMA, he has an extensive kickboxing background. This is another fight that I anticipate to end early and not need the judges. I bet fight ITD and used it in a parlay.

Erin Blanchfield vs. Taila Santos (women’s)

Notes:
  • Blanchfield is 11-1 with 6 wins by finish.
  • Santos is 19-2 with 13 wins by finish, including 10 by KO.
Analysis:

What a great fight to kick off the Main Card between two top of the division fighters. Talia Santos fought Valentina Shevchenko her last time out and dropped a split decision in a fight that many people thought that she won. Santos used her high-level grappling to neutralize and control the former Champion. Erin Blanchfield is a spectacular grappler in her own right and is 5-0 with three submissions in her surging UFC career. Santos will have a two-inch height and reach advantage and will look to bully Erin in there as the bigger and more experienced fighter and will be the toughest test of Blanchfield’s career. “Cold Blooded” is a BJJ black belt and a great wrestler, averaging four takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. I like Blanchfield here to be a step ahead in the grappling advantages and she is also a capable striker. I think Erin’s speed advantage will also come into play here. I bet Blanchfield -145, risking 1.45 to win 1 unit.

Rinya Nakamura vs. Fernie Garcia

Notes:
  • Nakamura is 7-0 with 6 wins by finish. 
  • Garcia is 10-3 with 4 wins by finish.
Analysis:

Rinya Nakamura is a beast of a prospect, undefeated at 7-0 with six wins by finish. “Hybrid” has huge power in his strikes and is a very high-level wrestler. I doubt that the UFC decided to ship in Fernie Garcia, who is 0-2 in the UFC, to feature on the Main Card in Singapore to get the win. This is a sacrifice for Nakamura, and it is his fight to win however he would like to do so. Garcia is a low-level striker with a boxing style and lacks finishing ability, with only four finishes in 13 career fights. Garcia is just a live body for Nakamura to style on. He is the biggest favorite on the card, but Nakamura wins however he chooses. I bet Nakamura to win inside the distance and used him as a parlay piece.

Giga Chikadze vs. Alex Caceres

Notes:
  • Chikadze is 14-3 with 10 wins inside the distance, including 9 by KO. “Ninja” was submitted in 1 of his 3 losses.
  • Caceres is 21-13 with 11 wins by finish. “Bruce LeeRoy” was stopped in 8 of his 13 losses.
Analysis:

This is an intriguing matchup between longtime UFC veteran Alex “Bruce LeeRoy” Caceres, who is 16-11-1 in his 28 UFC fights and on a two-fight winning streak, facing Giga Chikadze, who is returning to action after a 1.5-year layoff. We last saw “Ninja” drop a unanimous decision to Calvin Kattar in a five-round Main Event where he threw 128 significant strikes in a losing effort. Caceres is very well-rounded and is a long striker with not much volume or power and is a black belt in BJJ. One of “Bruce LeeRoy’s” biggest edges in his fights is his experience and veteran savvy, but Alex might need more than that to get by Chikadze, who is a sniper with his pinpoint striking that carries power, precision, and speed. Caceres will need to wrestle, and control Chikadze for large chunks of this fight to win or somehow find the back and get a choke. I think Giga will be able to keep the fight standing for the most part and paint Caceres from the outside and most likely get the finish. I bet Chikadze and used him in a parlay.

Anthony Smith vs. Ryan Spann

Notes:
  • Smith is 36-18 with 33 wins by finish. “Lionheart” was stopped in 14 of his 18 losses.
  • Spann is 21-8 with 18 wins by finish, including 12 by submission. “Superman” was stopped in 6 of his 8 losses.
Analysis:

This is a rematch from a fight that Anthony Smith won via rear naked choke in September of 2021. Since that fight, Spann has gone 2-1 with all three fights ending in the first round. In fact, all six of “Superman’s” last six fights have ended in the first round. Anthony Smith has had a long and storied career, with 54 career fights, and since his win over Spann, is 0-2 and has not looked good. Smith is a black belt in BJJ and has always had capable striking, but I just think that he is at the end of his road as a fighter and already has a successful career in the booth as a commentator. I am not sure why this rematch was made, but I have sneaky suspicion that Smith will retire after the fight, and if he performs like he did last time out, I understand why the UFC snuck it on a Singapore card at 5:00 in the morning, so no one will remember seeing Smith sputter on the way out. I lean Spann here in rematch, but I really prefer VIOLENCE here, as I do not think this fight will make it out of the first round, let alone go the full 15 minutes. I bet fight to not start round 3 and used it as a parlay piece.

Max Holloway vs. Chan Sung Jung

Notes:
  • Holloway is 24-7 with 12 wins by finish, including 10 by KO. “Blessed” was submitted in 1 of his 7 losses.
  • Jung is 17-7 with 14 wins by finish. “The Korean Zombie” was KO in 4 of his 7 losses.
Analysis:

Interesting fight in the Main Event and one that I think will result in a drubbing by Max Holloway over the “Korean Zombie.” Holloway is astoundingly only 31 years old and still in peak form, whereas the Zombie is a worn 36 years old and has looked a step slow in his last couple of fights. Furthermore, Jung is talking about retirement, which as you know if you have been following me for awhile, is one of my favorite betting edges, which is to bet against a fighter who is retiring after a booked fight or one that is even mulling it. Fighting is 80% mental and that is not the correct headspace to be in heading into war. I envision Holloway putting a pace on the Zombie for as long as he can take it, whether it is for the full five rounds in a very lopsided decision, or perhaps, finishing him. I don’t see Zombie keeping up with “Blessed” or any edge for him here in this matchup. I bet Holloway and used him as a parlay piece.

UFC Singapore – Official Bets:

  • 5:00: Errens +3.5 rounds -130 (1.3 to win 1 unit)
  • 6:00: Goff/Kinoshita fight ITD/Chikadze parlay -132 (5 to win 3.8 units)
  • 6:30: Bedoya & Tafa/Porter fight ITD parlay -150 (4.5 to win 3 units)
  • 7:00: Njokuani/Oleksiejczuk fight ITD, Nakamura ITD, Holloway parlay -110 (3.3 to win 3 units)
  • 7:30: Kazama/Armfield fight ITD -190 (10 to win 5.26 units)
  • 9:00: Blanchfield -145 (1.45 to win 1 unit)
  • 9:30: Nakamura ITD, Spann/Smith fight to NOT start round 3, Holloway parlay -102 (5.1 to win 5 units)

Continue Reading: Conmann’s Daily UFC DraftKings Plays

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