ABER’s Daily MLB DraftKings Plays – 9/12/23

ABER's MLB Daily Fantasy Plays

What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle! 

Chalk Stack Of The Day

Chicago Cubs vs. Chris Flexen (RH)

The Cubs are a much tougher fade tonight than they were last night. They’re one of the best teams in the split and Flexen is not good. The Cubs will likely make their way into my main build tonight. My favorites in order are Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, Christopher Morel, and Seiya Suzuki.

Top Stacks Of The Day

San Diego Padres vs. Lance Lynn (RH)

They took us to the promised land last night and they’re going to do it again tonight. At what point do we begin to consider Lance Lynn a gas can? He’s given up 24 hits and 18 earned runs over his last three starts. My favorites in order are Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis, Xander Bogaerts, and Trent Grisham, but 1-9 is firmly in play here tonight.

San Francisco Giants vs. Cal Quantrill (RH)

Double late night hammers anyone? As much as I pick on the Giants for being really bad in this split, I also think the data is a little far-fetched. We have been talking about how any average and above pitcher in this split is great, but I don’t think Quantrill is that guy. He’s got a sub 14% K rate, which is going to lead to tons of contact. This roster is not nearly as bad as they have played and they’re extremely affordable. My favorites in order are Joc Pederson, Wilmer Flores, Mike Yastrzemski, and LaMonte Wade Jr.

Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day

Justin Verlander (RH) vs. Oakland Athletics

There isn’t one pitcher that stands out tonight and there’s not really a spot I love more than the other. At the top, Verlander should be relatively safe against a team that lacks upside. Oakland’s middle of the pack in the split, but also top 10 in K rate over the last 30 days.

Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day

Patrick Sandoval (LH) vs. Seattle Mariners

Let’s be very clear here, I don’t love this, but honestly, there is nothing great here. The Mariners have been red-hot, which is why they’re top five in the split over the last 30 days, but they’re also top five in K rate. There’s a ton of risk here, but the upside is still present.

Top Value Pitcher Of The Day

Sean Manaea (LH) vs. Cleveland Guardians

Manaea is actually the most interesting pitcher of the night for me and also the most risky. We have seen an opener in front of him for the last five months and now they’re actually using him as a starter tonight. Does this mean he’s treated like a starter or will be piggybacked with another reliever? We don’t really know and that’s where the risk comes in because he likely busts in three innings pitched. He threw 86 pitches two appearances ago, so I think there’s a decent chance we see five innings here and he can get it done on a slate with a lot of uncertainty at pitcher. If you believe in narratives as well, one could believe this is a big opportunity for him to show he can handle being a starter again. As for the matchup, Cleveland is the worst offense in the split over the last 30 days, but as usual, they’re not striking out a ton, so the ceiling is limited and the price tag is the best part about this.

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