TX’s 8/4/23 MLB Breakdown

Intro:
What’s up, 4 DEEP?! We have 11 games on the Main Slate today. Let’s get into it!

TX’s Elite Pitching:

Luis Castillo – Castillo is going against the Angels tonight, who he has historically played well against. The Angels have a .240 batting average against Castillo in 29 at bats. Castillo has averaged 46 FPPG over his last three games and has scored 40+ FPPG in every game against the Angels. He has a combined K-rate of 28% tonight, as well.

TX’s Mid-Tier Pitching:

Aaron Nola – He sure let us down against the Pirates in his last outing, but I think we can go back to him tonight against the Royals. He’s a heavy home favorite, where he averages 28% more fantasy points. Nola averages 55 FPPG when he’s a favorite and 44 FPPG at home over his last six games.

Merrill Kelly – Kelly gets a favorable park shift taking on the Twins tonight. Target Field is ranked #9 for pitchers. The Twins have an enormous K-rate of 28% against righties.

TX’s Door #3 Pitcher:

Adam Wainwright – Home favorite taking on the Rockies. The Rockies have a 27% K-rate to righties. The Rockies have a .240 batting average in 29 bats. Wainwright has historically dominated the Rockies, so this could be interesting.

Stacks:

Red Sox – Home favorites today facing Manoah. The Red Sox have a .343 wOBA and .196 ISO to righties. Manoah is in the bottom 15% in average distance, at 199 feet, and bottom 20% of barrels, with six in the last 30 days.
Phillies – Facing Lyles tonight, who has allowed 22 HRs on the season and has a 49% FB rate. Lyles is in the bottom 15% of average distance, at 194 feet over the last 30 days.
Cardinals – At home, taking the field against Flexen. Flexen will only go a few innings, and then we will see the Rockies’ BP, who has a 4.81 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP.

Hitters: