Conmann’s 8/5/23 UFC Breakdown

Conmann's UFC DFS Breakdown

Today’s UFC Nashville event is a 12-fight card starting at 6:00PM with the card airing in its entirety on ESPN starting at 6:00pm. We have a $500,000 GPP on DraftKings, $18 per entry! Enjoy the UFC Nashville – DFS Breakdown, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)

DFS Terms Key:

  • I only play DFS on DraftKings, that is why I only mention them specifically and give you my thoughts on how I will be setting my lineups.
  • LOCK BUTTON,” “CORE,” and “ALL IN” are used to describe when I absolutely love a fighter for DFS and will be using him/her in most of my lineups entered.
  • When I say that I will use both fighters in my lineups, as an example, favoring Jones 7/3 or another fraction, that means that I will use each fighter throughout my lineups and favor the fighter mentioned. This fraction is an example of my exposure to each fighter based on 10 lineups entered. In the above case, it would be seven lineups for Jones vs. three for the opposing fighter.
  • When I say I will use each fighter in a couple of lineups where applicable, that means that I will not have over 10 lineups of either side in the fight and I will use each fighter sporadically, if applicable.

Ode Osbourne vs. Assu Almabaev
Notes:

  • Osbourne has a record of 12-5 with 9 wins by finish. “The Jamaican Sensation” was stopped in 4 of his 5 losses.
  • Almabaev is 17-2 with 11 wins by finish. “Zulfikhar” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
  • Almabaev is making his UFC debut.

DraftKings:

  • Almabayev: $8,600 / Osbourne: $7,600

Analysis:
We start this fun, 12-fight card, with Ode Osbourne, who is 4-3 in his seven UFC fights, welcoming Assu Almabaev, who will be making his UFC debut to the Octagon. Almabaev has a 17-2 record and has a strong wrestling base with good submissions. Osbourne is a finisher, with nine of his 12 wins coming inside the distance and he will look to use his three-inch height and an eight-inch reach advantage in this matchup to keep Almabaev at distance and try to avoid a wrestling match. “The Jamaican Sensation” relies on explosiveness and big movements to win fights, but has shown to slow down later in fights, which could be a problem here vs. the strong wrestling attack of Almabaev if he is not able to get him out of there early or keep the fight on the feet. I am a bit shocked that Almabaev is a 2:1 favorite here in his debut vs. Osbourne, who will have the striking and experience advantage, as well as a decent submission game. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, splitting my exposure close to 50/50.

Sean Woodson vs. Dennis Buzukja
Notes:

  • Woodson has a record of 9-1-1 with 4 wins by finish. “The Sniper” was submitted his only loss.
  • Buzukja is 11-2 with 5 wins by finish. “The Great” is making his UFC debut.

DraftKings:

  • Woodson: $9,600 / Buzukja: $7,500

Analysis:
Sean Woodson will now get his third opponent in UFC debutant Dennis Buzukja, who will be making his debut on just three days’ notice. Buzukja went 1-1 in two stints on Dana White’s Contender Series, but was unable to win a contract with a decision win after his decision loss on the first go round. Woodson is massive for the division and will have a five-inch height and an eight-inch reach advantage in this matchup. “The Sniper” is 4-1-1 in his six UFC fights and is a high-volume striker who uses his reach very well and has excellent body strikes that he uses when he has his opponent pinned with his back against the cage. Buzukja is a kickboxer who likes to create distance and utilize his kicks, which might not be the best strategy in this matchup. Buzukja had a very tough weight cut, dropping 21 pounds in under 72 hours and just missed weight by one-half pound. UFC medical officials stopped him from cutting further weight and “The Great” was fined 20% of his fight purse for the miss, which is understandable considering such late notice. Stylistically, this is a great matchup for Woodson, and once you bake in the very tough weight cut of Buzukja, and this being a huge step up in competition for the newcomer, this is Woodson’s fight to win. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, favoring Woodson 7/3.

Jake Hadley vs. Cody Durden
Notes:

  • Hadley is 10-1 with 8 wins inside the distance.
  • Durden is 15-4-1 with 11 fights ending inside the distance. Cody was submitted in 3 of his 4 losses.

DraftKings:

  • Hadley: $8,800 / Durden: $7,400

Analysis:
This is a good matchup and what should ultimately be a great fight between two grapplers that also like to slug. Durden is a former college wrestler who pushes an aggressive, takedown-heavy, approach and is averaging almost six takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time. Hadley has an aggressive, striking attack out of his southpaw stance, where he has very good kicks to the legs and has a good submission grappling game. A weakness in Hadley’s game is his defensive wrestling and get up game. That is a huge angle in the advantage of Durden stylistically. This is another fight that I don’t get the line, as Hadley is -200. I think Durden is going to serve up a hot dish of American wrestling and top control to the “Brummy.” I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, favoring Durden 6/4.

Billy Quarantillo vs. Damon Jackson
Notes:

  • Quarantillo is 17-5 with 13 wins by finish. Billy was KO in 2 of his 5 losses.
  • Jackson is 22-5-1 with 19 wins by finish, including 15 by submission. “Action” was stopped in all 5 of his losses.

DraftKings:

  • Quarantillo: $8,900 / Jackson: $7,300

Analysis:
This will be a fun fight between Billy Quarantillo and Damon Jackson. “Billy Q” is a very high-volume striker who pushes a torrid pace and is also well versed in grappling, with a black belt in BJJ. Jackson is a relentless grappler who wants to drag the fight to the ground as fast as possible, as his striking game is his weakest area. “Action” sometimes is all too willing to engage in a striking war, even though he is outgunned in that area, and it often leads to him being stung and sometimes taken down, where he spends too much time on his back. Where Jackson has success is when he can control the pace of the fight and where it takes place, which I do not see to be the case here, as Quarantillo will lead the dance with his pressure. I like Quarantillo to break Jackson at some point with his pressure and it could lead to a finish. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, favoring Quarantillo 7/3.

Jeremiah Wells vs. Carlston Harris
Notes:

  • Wells is 12-2-1 with 9 wins by finish.
  • Harris is 18-5 with all 10 wins by finish. “Mocambique” was KO in 2 of his 5 losses.

DraftKings:

  • Wells: $8,500 / Harris: $7,700

Analysis:
This fight is a banger! Jeremiah Wells is 4-0 with three wins by finish during his UFC tenure and has big power in his strikes. Jeremiah is a BJJ blackbelt and has a strong wrestling game, averaging four takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time. Carlston Harris is 3-1 in his four UFC fights, with two wins by finish, only losing to 17-0 undefeated phenom, Shavkat Rakhmonov. Wells will have the power advantage and Harris will have the speed edge. Both fighters have shown sloppy defense, and each can hurt the other in all areas. These types of encounters lead to Violence! I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, splitting my exposure close to 50/50.

Raoni Barcelos vs. Kyler Phillips
Notes:

  • Barcelos is 17-4 with 10 wins by finish. Raoni was stopped in 2 of his 4 losses.
  • Phillips is 10-2 with 7 wins by finish.

DraftKings:

  • Phillips: $9,000 / Barcelos: $7,200

Analysis:
This is a tough fight to call. Kyler Phillips is a big talent, but broke our hearts last summer when he destroyed Raulian Paiva in round 1 for a 10-8 round and what should have been a referee stoppage, but the fight went on, Kyler gassed, and cost us big. I can’t trust him with my money on the line. Raoni Barcelos is another fighter that I was high on and is now most likely fighting Phillips in a loser leaves town elimination match, as he is 1-3 over his last four UFC fights. Phillips is very well-rounded, with good power in his strikes and is a black belt in BJJ. Barcelos has a very similar well-rounded game, power in his strikes, and a black belt as well. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, splitting my exposure close to 50/50.

Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Ludovit Klein
Notes:

  • Bahamondes is 14-4 with 10 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “La Jaula” was submitted in 2 of his 4 losses.
  • Klein is 19-4-1 with 16 wins by finish. “Mr. Highlight” was stopped in 3 of his 4 losses.

DraftKings:

  • Bahamondes: $9,100 / Klein: $7,100

Analysis:
Ignacio Bahamondes is a high-volume striker who is huge for the division and will have an eight-inch height and a three-inch reach advantage in this matchup vs. Ludovit Klein, who is also a striker. Bahamondes is long and rangy and throws unorthodox strikes behind a very good jab. Klein has good power, excellent kicks, and will have a slight wrestling advantage. Bahamondes is big, and with his size and pace, I think it will be hard for Klein to win chunks of minutes, and I don’t see him finishing Ignacio. I think Bahamondes is the cleaner striker, and with the size and volume, he will prevail. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, favoring Bahamondes 7/3.

Tanner Boser vs. Aleksa Camur
Notes:

  • Boser is 20-10-1 with 13 wins by finish, including 11 by KO. “The Bulldozer” was KO in 2 of his 10 losses.
  • Camur is 6-2 with 5 wins by KO.

DraftKings:

  • Boser: $8,700 / Camur: $7,500

Analysis:
This is another tricky fight, as there are several on this card. Boser was a career heavyweight, but made the drop down to 205 lbs. last fight and was starched by Ion Cutelaba by KO in the first round. Aleksa Camur has been out of action for two years and makes his return here vs. the former heavyweight. Camur is a striker with bad takedown defense and has shown some power, with five of his six wins coming via KO. Boser is also a a striker who has below average wrestling and grappling, which will most likely lead to a striking match here. I favor Boser and his heavy, leg-kicking game to right the ship after his last loss. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, splitting my exposure close to 50/50.

Diego Lopes vs. Gavin Tucker
Notes:

  • Lopes is 21-6 with 19 wins inside the distance, including 11 by submission. Diego was KO in 2 of his 6 losses.
  • Tucker is 13-2 with 10 wins by finish. “Guv’Nor” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.

DraftKings:

  • Lopes: $8,300 / Tucker: $7,900

Analysis:
Diego Lopes made his UFC debut last time out on short notice vs. 17-0, undefeated Movsar Evloev and looked good. Lopes even had Evloev in danger multiple times, including a deep armbar. Now with a full training camp behind him, he will welcome Gavin Tucker back to the Octagon. Tucker is now 37 years old and returning to action after a two-year layoff, coming off a first round KO loss. Tucker has good striking and wrestling and is a well-rounded fighter, but I am just uncertain how much he has left in the tank with all things considered. Lopes has a very high-level grappling game and is eight years younger with a five-inch height and a six-inch reach advantage. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, favoring Lopes 7/3.

Dustin Jacoby vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
Notes:

  • Jacoby is 18-7-1 with 12 wins by finish, including 11 by KO. “The Hanyak” was stopped in 3 of his 7 losses.
  • Nzechukwu is 12-3 with 9 wins by finish, including 8 by KO. “African Savage” was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses.

DraftKings:

  • Nzechukwu: $8,400 / Jacoby: $7,800

Analysis:
This is a very tough fight to predict. I like and have bet on both guys multiple times and love the attributes that they possess. The problem for me is not confidently being able to differentiate who will have the edge due to many variables. Jacoby is entering on a two-fight losing streak and Nzechukwu is riding a three-fight win streak, with all three wins by finish. “The African Savage” is massive at 6’5,” and he will have a seven-inch reach advantage. Jacoby is an excellent kickboxer with good leg kicks and a plus fight IQ. Nzechukwu has looked improved in each of his last several fights and surprisingly had a submission victory in his last fight, which was his first submission victory in his 15-fight career. I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, splitting my exposure close to 50/50.

Jessica Andrade vs. Tatiana Suarez (women’s)
Notes:

  • Andrade is 24-11 with 17 wins by finish. “Bate Estaca” was stopped in 8 of her 11 losses.
  • Suarez is 9-0 with 6 wins by finish.

DraftKings:

  • Suarez: $9,500 / Andrade: $6,700

Analysis:
Tatiana Suarez is a beast! Undefeated at 9-0 with six wins by finish and an Olympic-level wrestling game, Suarez is now fighting at 115 lbs. and is going to be an even bigger monster at this weight class, as she averages over six takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time. Andrade has been ping-ponging between divisions, taking late notice fights, and has been finished in her last two fights. This will be the fourth fight in seven months for Andrade, and she was just knocked out three months ago. This is a tall order to cut weight and then face Tatiana Suarez. I think Suarez mauls, and most likely finishes, Andrade just like she did previously to current UFC Champion Alexa Grasso and former Champion Carla Esparza. I will play Suarez in my CORE DraftKings lineups.

Corey Sandhagen vs. Rob Font
Notes:

  • Sandhagen is 16-4 with 10 wins by finish. “Sandman” was submitted in 1 of his 4 losses.
  • Font is 20-6 with 13 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. Rob was submitted in 1 of his 6 losses.

DraftKings:

  • Sandhagen: $9,300 / Font: $6,900

Analysis:
We have two similar, high-paced strikers facing off in the Main Event at a 140-lb. catch weight. Font took this five-round fight on short notice, thus the catch weight. Font won via first round knockout in his last fight, however, he lost his previous two via unanimous decision and was knocked down a combined five times. Sandhagen is on a two-fight winning streak, with his last victory over Marlon Vera, who was one of the two fighters that beat Font. I favor Sandhagen here and think that he will be able to take over as the fight goes long, as well as being live for an early win. Font has only been stopped one time in his 26-fight career. However, he has been dropped multiple times in multiple fights and “The Sandman” could check that chin right quick! I will play both fighters in my DraftKings lineups, favoring Sandhagen 7/3.

Continue Reading: Conmann’s UFC Nashville Betting Blueprint

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