Miami Dolphins (5-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-1)
2023 Week 7 – PHI -2.5, O/U 51.5
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The Miami Dolphins’ offense has been elite this year and Tua Tagoviola has been the main beneficiary, statistically. Tua is currently leading the NFL MVP race at +350 mark, something we predicted would happen in the preseason Gambling Guide. He was one of my favorites to actually win the award at +2200 before Week 1, along with Most Passing Yards at +2000, which he currently leads the NFL by 200 yards over Kirk Cousins with 1,876 passing yards through six games. Not only does Tua lead the NFL in passing yards, but he also does in passing TDs, adjusted yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, passing rating, 1st downs, etc. I could go on and on about how good Tua and this offense have been this year. I bring all of this up because the Philadelphia Eagles’ pass defense has been bad this year. They have been beaten for the fourth most passing TDs and 10th most passing yards on the season. These numbers were higher earlier in the year, but it isn’t because they are playing better, it is just because they got to play Zach Wilson in Week 6. Throughout the year they have given up stat lines to middling QBs such as Mac Jones, who went 35/54 for 316 yards and three TDs in Week 1, Kirk Cousins went 31/44 for 364 yards and four TDs in Week 2, Sam Howell dropped 39/41 for 290 yards and a score in Week 4, and Matthew Stafford had a line of 21/37 for 222 yards and two scores in Week 5. The only QBs they have held under that 222 mark are Zach Wilson (186) and Baker Mayfield (146). This Miami Dolphins passing attack, led by Tyreek Hill, is going to feast on this secondary all Sunday night long.
Speaking of Tyreek Hill, the Miami Dolphins’ receiving group is led by Hill, who has accrued an insane 814 receiving yards through six games on 42 receptions, good for 26.8 PPR points per game. This by far leads all position groups this year and he is almost single-handedly winning seasonal leagues each week with four games over 28 points scored on the season. Behind Hill, Jaylen Waddle is pacing him in target share over the last three weeks, as they both have 24 targets, which combines for 52.2% of the Dolphins’ overall target share. It is only a matter of time before Waddle gets loose over the defense and I think this is the week it happens. No other receiver on this team is worth mentioning, even for a one-off showdown slate, as the only other receiver on the team seeing over a 5.4% target share is Braxton Berrios at 10.9% and he only has an average depth of target of 6.5, 2, and 5.5 over the last three games combining for a total of 54 air yards. In terms of fantasy production, the Eagles are giving up the fifth most fantasy points to perimeter WRs, but I think Mike McDaniel is going to put his guys in positions to succeed regardless of where they are on the field. The Eagles have their hands full with this speedy group.
The Dolphins’ ground attack has been lethal this year, led by the 31-year-old Raheem Mostert. Mostert is currently the RB3 in PPR points per game on the season and one of the only two backs ahead of him this year is teammate De’Von Achane (IR), who is averaging 25.4 PPR points per game. Mostert is averaging a robust 5.7 yards per carry across 75 carries, while scoring nine rushing TDs and adding two more through the air. On paper, this isn’t a good matchup for the Dolphins’ ground game, as the Eagles have the second ranked rush DVOA on the season, giving up only an average of 14.2 PPR points per game to opposing backs and a ridiculous 3.1 yards per carry. Their defensive line also ranks seventh in the NFL in adjusted line of scrimmage yards. Mostert and this Miami ground attack is matchup-proof, so for season long, I’m not concerned, but in terms of gambling, I have no reason to attack this Eagles’ defensive front when we have a ripe spot with the Dolphins’ receiving group.
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ passing attack has taken a step back this year. It has taken them some time to adjust with former Offensive Coordinator, Shane Steichen, leaving to take the Indianapolis Colts Head Coaching position in the offseason. What has dropped off for Hurts is his efficiency, as the offense isn’t in consistent flow to pick apart defenses at will, forcing them to make adjustments. Hurts is still producing as a fantasy QB, scoring an average of 21.5 points per game, which ranks him as the QB3 on the season so far while scoring at least 19.88 points in each of his last five games. The Dolphins have given up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing QBs so far this year, allowing opponents to throw for an average of six yards per attempt. I say this lightly as they have barely played anyone of substance this year, and when they did, they got torched by Josh Allen, who threw for 320 yards on 25 attempts and four scores. They did hold Justin Herbert to only 228 yards and a score in Week 1 on 33 attempts, but I’m more or less looking at that as an anomaly, as it was Week 1 and it was the Chargers’ new Offensive Coordinator, Kellen Moore’s first game as their OC. Outside of that, they let Russell Wilson throw for 306 yards on 38 attempts in that 70-20 game in Week 3 and have only played guys like Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, and Bryce Young.
The Philadelphia Eagles’ receiving group is essentially a three-headed monster, led by alpha WR AJ Brown, followed by WR Devonta Smith, and TE Dallas Goedert. Over the last three games, Brown has paced the receiving group with a 27% target share, followed by Smith with a 22.5% share, and Goedert with a 18.9% share. The volume has been there for all three and all three are great plays this week. It is worth noting that the spot to attack the Miami Dolphin defense is at the TE spot. The Dolphins are giving up the fourth most fantasy points per game to the TE position out of the slot, which is where Goedert runs 53.2% of his snaps. Outside of that, nothing stands out matchup-wise for me to really want to take advantage of in terms of props.
Where the Eagles are going to attack the Dolphins is on the ground. They have leaned on D’Andre Swift as their RB1 for five straight games now, giving up at least 17 touches in each of those games, averaging 18.88 PPR points per game over that span. Overall, Swift is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, which can be attributed mainly to the Eagles’ absurd offensive line. Across the board the Eagles’ offensive line ranks in the top five in terms of adjusted line yards, RB yards gained per carry, power blocking success rate, stuffed rate, and second level blocking. It is apparent when you watch this team play and it pops out at you how good the line is every single play. The Dolphins’ defensive line is ranked 21st in the NFL in adjusted line yards, 20th in RB yards, and 29th in power success rate. I expect the Philadelphia offensive line to dominate in this one and be the main source of the Eagles’ offense. I’ll be all over Swift running for over 61.5 rushing yards on Sunday Night.
This game is going to be fun. Both of these offenses should move the ball and I wouldn’t be shocked if both teams drop 30+ in this one. The Dolphins are going to have no issues moving the ball and getting chunk play after chunk play with Tyreek Hill being the main beneficiary there and Jaylen Waddle being another player I also like this week. The Eagle offense is going to run the ball down the Dolphins’ throats and rip off chunk run after chunk run. The only thing that could slow this game up is the way the Eagles play offense, creating these long methodical drives, which suck the air out of the game. However, I think that will be offset by the Dolphins’ ability to rip off those 20+ explosive plays and score at the snap of a finger.
- D’Andre Swift OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – MGM
- Tyreek Hill OVER 95.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – MGM
- Tyreek Hill 1+ TD (-115) – MGM
Note: These are my favorite bets. I will be posting more and I do like more at smaller unit sizes for this game. I really like this game in terms of prop bets and I think we can attack it a few different ways.