Volpe’s NFL Showdown Plays – 10/5/23: Bears at Commanders
? Sunday Night Showdown – 10/5/23 ?
Bears @ Commanders | 8:15 PM EST
Commanders -6 | Over/Under 44.5
The Bears have lost 12 consecutive games and have not covered in their last seven games. They will be without two of their best defensive players in their secondary in Eddie Jackson and Jaylon Johnson. The Bears have allowed the second most fantasy points to running backs and second most touchdowns to quarterbacks with 10 passing TDs. The Commanders match up well at home against a weak Bears Defense.
UPDATES:
⭐ Notable News ⭐
- The Commanders rank 1st against TEs, allowing 5.8 FPPG.
- The Commanders play zone 75% of the time, where DJ Moore has 16 of his 19 receptions. Chicago should move him to be matched up with Forbes enough and Fields looks his way first.
- The Bears play the fifth-most zone (84%) in the league because they don’t have much talent to cover. McLaurin has a 18.5% target rate vs. zone and Dotson has a 19.3% target rate vs. zone, but Dotson has only generated 0.25 fantasy points vs. zone.
? Key Injuries ?
- CHI: OUT: Chase Claypool (WR), Eddie Jackson (S, Foot), Jaylon Johnson (CB, Hamstring) | QUES: Teven Jenkins (OL, Calf)
- WASH: NO INJURIES
?️ Weather ?️
- FedEx Field (outdoors) | 69 degrees, 0% chance of rain, 5-10 mph winds
? Last Matchup ?
- 10/13/22: Commanders 12-7
? QB Matchups ? (Through four weeks)
- Bears Defense: Ranked 29th | 25.3 FP/G allowed to QBs, they have also allowed 10 TD passes, which is the second-most in the NFL. Howell has a great matchup.
- Commanders Defense: Ranked 25th | 23.0 FP/G allowed to QBs. They have allowed the second-most rushing yards to QBs (131) and Fields will be on the move a lot tonight.
? RB Matchups ? (Through four weeks)
- Bears Defense: Ranked 31st | 27.5 FP/G allowed to RBs. The Bears have allowed eight touchdowns to RBs, which is the second-most in the NFL. Robinson and Gibson are in a great spot.
- Commanders Defense: Ranked 15th | 14.6 FP/G allowed to RBs
? Core Players ?
- Captains: Robinson. Gibson is a nice low owned contrarian option in a great matchup
- Flex: Fields, Howell, Robinson, Moore or McLaurin
? More of ?
- Fields, Howell, McLaurin, Moore, Thomas, Wash DST, Gibson, Santos
? Best Values ?
- Gibson, St. Brown
? Less of ?
- Herbert, Kmet, Bears DST
?Large GPP Plays In Order ?
- Gibson
- St. Brown
- Scott
- Pringle
? Prediction ?
- Commanders 25-17
? Bets ? (+4.2 units)
- Herbert UNDER 48.5 rushing yards – 1 unit
- Gibson OVER 18.5 rushing yards – 1 unit
- DJ Moore OVER 3.5 receptions – 1 unit
? Rankings ? See Detailed Player Projections ⬇️
Click Here For Volpe’s Showdown Projections
If you have any lineup questions, ask me @mvolp in Discord before lock!
