ABER’s MLB Daily Fantasy Plays – 10/4/23

What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle! 

Top Stacks Of The Day

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Braxton Garrett (LH)

I’m not really sure it matters who is on the mound here because it’s been made pretty clear the Phillies are just a playoff team nowadays. The data works against the Phillies in the split, but as we saw yesterday, it’s a new game and Luzardo is twice the pitcher Garrett is. My favorite plays in order are Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, and Cristian Pache. 

Minnesota Twins vs. Jose Berrios (RH)

As most of you probably know now, the Twins are going to be a team I’m going to be on more often than not going forward. Yesterday they were originally my favorite stack of the day and pitch data moved me off of them. Over the last 30 days, they have cut back on the strikeouts and have moved up to a top five offense in the split. I think they close out this series today and move onto their next victim. My favorites in order are Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, and Max Kepler. 

Favorite One-Off Hitters

• Brandon Belt
• Marcus Semien 
• Jazz Chisholm 
• Josh Lowe

Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day

Freddy Peralta (RH) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 

I think the D-backs are the worst team in the playoffs, which is going to naturally move me towards Peralta. If you can pitch around Carroll, you have a really good chance of getting out of this game in a good spot. He’s not my favorite play of the day and I worry about his floor because of Arizona’s low strikeout rate, but he’s the one I would roster on the high end of pricing. 

Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day

Aaron Nola (RH) vs. Miami Marlins

Everything I said about Wheeler yesterday applies to Nola today. They don’t want to give the ball to the bullpen, so we will see Nola stretched out as far as he can go and I think this Marlins team just kinda played over their own heads. I think the Phillies close out this series tonight, which puts Nola in line for the win. 

Top Value Pitcher Of The Day

Nate Eovaldi (RH) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

We vaguely touched on this yesterday because we started the year stacking the Rays in this split daily and they have really declined. Over the last 30 days, they are bottom 10 in the split with the 11th highest K rate. I think this price tag is pretty egregious and he should be over $9k. 

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