TopHog’s 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Guide

TopHog's FedEx Betting Guide

“Playoffs!? Don’t talk about –Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game, another game!?”
-Jim Mora

Ladies and gentleman, welcome to the playoffs! 

We have finally made it to the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the St. Jude Championship, as well as the final stretch of the PGA Tour Season. In a year we saw dominated early on by the familiar stalwarts of the tour, there have been some lesser-known guys showing up the last few weeks as they made a push to be included in the final 70. A few notable guys missed the cut (JT was so close with that chip on 18 hitting the pin!), and Adam Scott and Shane Lowry, who seemed to play well all year. That shouldn’t change the fact that this tournament will be a fun one to watch, with accuracy and ball striking of utmost importance.  

TPC Southwind, where the opening round of the FedEx will commence, is a Par 70, 7,243-yard course that boasts some monster holes—with eight of the par 4s playing over the tour average of 445 yards. Additionally, the course comes in as the 15th most difficult course on the PGA Tour since 2015 and is Top 10 in most narrow fairways this year, with the fairways averaging just 29 yards wide. 

While the rough won’t be as penal as some of the tracks these guys have played at this year, 11 of the holes have water in play, so the guys struggling off the tee this week will contribute to the record number of balls in the water—TPC Southwind has more water balls than any PGA Event on tour in the last two decades. 

Lastly, we are approaching the end of the season—which means the Bermuda greens should be fast and furious—they’re also going to be small (as TPC Southwind has the fourth-smallest greens on tour). 

So what does this all mean? We need accuracy over distance, especially with the long irons, and we need guys who can putt well. This isn’t a bomber’s course where you can hit it 350 into the rough and hit a wedge tight and call it a day. You are going to have to avoid the water and hit the small greens from long distances if you want to compete and move on to the next round. That being said, here is who sticks out to me this week. (Spoiler alert—it’s going to be a list of some familiar names.)

FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks:

  • Pick to Win: Tommy Fleetwood +2800
    You can argue Tommy is the best player to not win on the PGA Tour. All year he has been consistently finishing at the top of the leaderboard and he has been gaining momentum at the end of the season (A 10th, 6th, 5th and 2nd place finish in four out of the last five tournaments). Yes, I know that includes a stretch over in the UK where the links-style courses fit his game, but I believe in him keeping the ball out of the water this week. His iron play is world-class and that’s what it’s going to take to win. I would be lying if I didn’t also say that Tommy’s recent visit to Butch Harman for a tune-up before the playoffs wasn’t also playing a factor in this decision—you have a guy who is playing lights out right now, going to see arguably the best golf instructor of all time—to me, that is a recipe for Tommy to get his first win at a crucial time.
  • Top 5 Finish: Rickie Fowler +550
    Fowler has two top-15 finishes in four tries at this course, while gaining strokes putting all four times. He has also been one of the more consistent golfers all year long, nabbing one win and 16 top 25 finishes. To me, consistency is going to make the difference this week, as the event is a no-cut event (something that I believe benefits Fowler). I think his hot putter (over 1.33 Strokes Gained at The Open) allows him to put together a few low rounds and keep him in contention on Sunday.
  • Top 10 Finish: JT Poston +500
    He has finished top 30 in his last three starts at TPC Southwind and has been on fire to close out the PGA Tour regular season, having Top 10s in four of his last five starts. I believe this course will set up close to Innisbrook (7,219 yards and a lot of water), a course that he had a Top 10 at earlier in the year during the Valspar. These odds on a guy who’s playing as good as anybody else over the last month? Sign me up.

As always, the place to be is in the Discord where I will live ping my round-by-round matchups as they happen. Let’s go low and win some cash as we gear up for the last few weeks of the season!
-TopHog

Continue Reading: Price’s FedEx St. Jude DFS Breakdown

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