TopHog’s 2023 BMW Championship Betting Guide

August 17, 2023
2:22 pm

And then there were 50.

BMW Championship Picks:

Pick to Win: Tommy Fleetwood +2000
I am going right back to the well with Fleetwood. Unable to get it done last week, despite being in the mix on Sunday, this man has been knocking on the door all year long of his first PGA Tour win. What a better place for it to come than in the playoffs? Leading the field in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds, Top 10 in putting, short game, fairways hit, ball striking, this man is a stat machine who I am confident is on the verge of that win. I want to be tailing him when he does. I believe it is this week.
Top 5 Finish: Patrick Cantlay +210
Just take the short odds here and run with it. Cantlay always seems to peak this time of year and moved into the Top 5 in the standing last week with his strong performance. He got better in every round, going 68-67-66-64, before falling in a playoff to Lucas Glover. He gained strokes in almost every category. With another grouping of monster par 4s (I think 7 are 450yds +), iron play is going to be important. Cantlay is hitting it pure right now and that’s going to be huge this weekend and moving forward into the final tournaments of the year.
Top 10 Finish: Corey Conners +330
Noticing a theme yet? Strong Iron players who are trending. A final round 65 last week gave Conners a T6 finish. What was interesting about that was that he hit the ball pretty poorly, it was his putter that carried him up the leaderboard. He is one of the elite ball strikers on the tour, if that turns around and the putter stays hot, I think a top 10 is easily within his reach.
Top 20 Finish: Sahith Theegala +180
The field is only 50 guys this week. Theegala is definitely a volatile player who is capable of shooting himself out of the tournament immediately. He is also a player who can put up birdies in bunches, I am going to count on him to do the latter this week. The course sets up well for Theegala, his mid/long iron play is the best part of his game, and there will be a lot of those shots needed this week. I think he is capable of besting a little over half the field, and with almost 2:1 return, I am going to take that.