ABER’s 8/16/23 MLB Breakdown

ABER's MLB Daily Fantasy Plays

What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle! 

Chalk Stack Of The Day

Seattle Mariners vs. Alec Marsh (RH)
James McArthur will be opening this game, but Marsh will pitch the bulk of the game, which is where we will focus. Seattle has been playing a lot better lately, cracking the top 10 in the split against right handed pitching, but they have continued to strike out at one of the highest rates in the league, which makes them a target and also makes them dangerous. We saw that yesterday with Healy on the Mariners and I was on Lyles as a cheap value option. Given the lack of “great” spots tonight, I’m in for playing some Mariners tonight. I wouldn’t get too crazy and may shy away in single entry, but definitely want some exposure if playing multiple lineups. My favorites in order are Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, Cal Raleigh, and Cade Marlowe.

Top Stacks Of The Day

Washington Nationals vs. James Paxton (LH)
Our favorite team in the league is checking in at #1 for me tonight on the stack board. Paxton has been very good, but the reality is that the Nats are just really good in this split. They crack the top 10 in the split with the third-lowest K rate in the league since the beginning of July, and over the course of the entire season, they are #1 in wRC. They don’t have the firepower to really nuke, but this entire lineup is an extremely tough out and they work pitchers daily. Outside of Lane Thomas, they are all extremely affordable. My favorites in order are Lane Thomas, Stone Garrett, Joey Meneses, and Keibert Ruiz.

Texas Rangers vs. Reid Detmers (LH)
Targeting Detmers last week led to tournament-winning upside and we are going right back to it. Our main reason for targeting him last week is also a big part of it this week, which is how badly reverse splits he is. He’s also been just absolutely terrible lately. My favorite plays in order are Corey Seager, Nate Lowe, Adolis Garcia, and Ezequiel Duran.

Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day

Kevin Gausman (RH) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
At the top for me it’s pretty much down to Gausman and Snell. The matchup definitely favors Gausman, which has me leaning this direction, despite Snell being a monster at home. The reason I am bringing up both is because I don’t feel great about picking one or the other, but given the structure of this article, I choose Gausman if having to pick one. The Phillies are middle of the pack across the board, so regardless, it’s not a smash spot, but he definitely has a good chance of being the highest scoring pitcher of the night given his upside.

Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day

Jon Gray (RH) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Last Friday Gray was my favorite pitcher of the night and tonight he is my favorite again. As I stated last week, his schedule was one of the worst schedules I have ever seen in my life, getting set up in a ton of horrible matchups. Tonight he gets another good one against the Angels, who have the second-highest K rate in the league. He is significantly cheaper on DK, where I would just lock button in 90% of your lineups tonight.

Top Value Pitcher Of The Day

Javier Assad (RH) vs. Chicago White Sox
It gets gross down here really quick, but I’m going to continue to pick on the White Sox. They have been pretty bad in the split as much as it might not seem like it. Since July 1st they have been the second worst team in the split with the ninth-highest K rate. Assad is not great, but he feels very safe tonight with the amount of ground balls he induces and the limited hard hit rate (under 30%).

MacKenzie Gore is way too cheap on DK and very viable there.

Also Check Out: 4Deep’s MLB Quick Hits


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