Hoffman’s Favorite NFL Week 4 Touchdown Bets
1pm Slate:
- Steelers at Texans
- Tank Dell +300 (DraftKings) – Tank Dell and/or Nico Collins will see the End Zone in this matchup. I like the way the Texans are working their offense with these two young WRs and Stroud looks to be the best of the Rookie QB class thus far. Give me the pass catchers for the Texans in this one.
- Nico Collins +230 (Fanduel) – See Tank Dell writeup.
- Najee Harris +140 (Caesars) – Najee is the Steeler who sees the most volume and should be able to get in the box versus a weak Texans defense.
- Vikings at Panthers
- Justin Jefferson -110 (PointsBet) – I expect this game to be high scoring as both these defenses are leaky. Jefferson has been running wild all season and finally got in the end zone last week. I look for him to now string together multiple games in a row with a TD. The Vikings should be able to get a W in this one too, and to win, Jefferson will need to be involved like always.
- Adam Thielen +215 (Caesars) – Thielen has been really good thus far and is probably one of the most underrated WRs in the entire league. I look for this game to pace up and the Panthers will likely be playing catch up, which means they will need to throw the ball. No one better to throw it to on their team than Thielen. Also, this is a revenge spot versus his old team.
- Bengals at Titans
- Derrick Henry +115 (Caesars) – Henry got bottled up by a stout Cleveland defense last week, to the point Tennessee basically abandoned the run completely. Look for them to get back to their bread and butter in this home matchup with Cincy. Henry is in line for multiple scores in this contest.
- Ja’Marr Chase +120 (DraftKings) – Chase finally had his breakout game last week and I look for him and Burrow to pick up the pace now and get things moving. This is another great spot for Chase to leave his mark on a game. 100 and a TD is in play for him all day in this matchup. Time for arguably the best QB-WR duo in the league to show why they have entered that discussion over the last few seasons.
- Broncos at Bears
- Justin Fields +150 (Caesars) – I mean, talk about a dud of a game with the bottom feeders of the NFL. That being said, it is the NFL, and someone has to score TDs (I think). It is now or never for Fields. This should be the matchup he is able to run around and score a TD. DON’T THINK FIELDS – YOU ARE PLAYING THE BRONCOS, JUST RUN!!!!!
- Courtland Sutton +190 (PointsBet) – Sutton is playing the DK Metcalf role for Russ in Denver and the connection is definitely real. Russ looks for Sutton the most, particularly in the Red Zone. In a game that should have scoring, Sutton should be a part of it.
- DJ Moore +225 (PointsBet) – The Bears got DJ Moore in the offseason to help Fields and give him an over the top weapon. They have really yet to unleash Moore yet in the offense and there is no better time to do it at home versus one of the worst teams in the league. Similar to Fields, it is basically now or never for Moore.
- Buccaneers at Saints
- Cade Otton +425 (PointsBet) – I really like what I have seen out of Otton this year and I think Baker finds him in this one for a TD. Just have a feeling he sees the end zone this week.
- Chris Olave +200 (FanDuel) – Olave should have a good matchup in this one, regardless of who plays QB for the Saints, but I like him better with Winston. Olave pops off with Winston, so if Winston starts over Carr, look for a lot of Olave in this game. I like it with Carr too, but I expect Carr to sit and Winston to go in this one for New Orleans.
- Alvin Kamara +120 (DraftKings) – The team workhorse is back, plain and simple. Kamara is dynamic and the Saints are going to use him, particularly in the Red Zone. Look for them to get him in the box in his return game at home.
- Commanders at Eagles
- Jalen Hurts -115 (DraftKings) – Hurts is automatic inside the three-yard-line in goal to go situations, which the Eagles are in a lot. The push rugby-style play they run legit never fails and puts Hurts in line for a TD pretty much every game.
- D’Andre Swift +121 (Caesars) – Swift has been electric thus far for the Eagles, and if it isn’t Hurts scoring, look for him to hand it off to Swift. Swift also has the possibility to pop one off in this game. The Eagles are going to run the ball a lot in this game, and Swift should see the end zone.
- Brian Robinson Jr. +185 (PointsBet) – Brian Robinson Jr. has been the most consistent Commander to date, and if they are going to keep pace in this game, he is going to need to be involved.
- Eagles Defense/ST +600 (DraftKings) – We saw Sam Howell throw four picks versus Buffalo last week. Look for that to continue against the fierce Philly D filled with ball hawking players who are champing at the bit to make some noise. Look for a pick-six in this game from the Philly D.
- Dolphins at Bills
- Jaylen Waddle +170 (PointsBet) – Waddle has had more success in his career against the Bills than Tyreek. The Bills like to keep everything underneath, which will limit Tyreek on the deep ball. Waddle is more intriguing to me in this matchup to get in the end zone because of that.
- Stefon Diggs +117 (Caesars) – Diggs is just a monster and a lot of people think the Bills are going to win this game, and if that is so, Diggs will need to be involved heavily. He could be in line for two TDs in this matchup.
- Josh Allen +155 (Caesars) – Josh Allen is a beast of a human and anytime the Bills get in the Red Zone, he is always a threat with his legs. These are also spots where Allen likes to show his dominance and this is definitely one of them. Look for him to make a statement and prove to the Dolphins who the big dogs in the AFC East still are.
- Rams at Colts
- Kyren Williams +117 (Caesars) – Kyren Williams has been the definition of a workhorse for the Rams this season. His volume is insane and he leads the league for running backs in passing targets out of the backfield. He is just used all over the field in all facets of the game. He should see the end zone in this one.
- Anthony Richardson +140 (Caesars) – Richardson is back from concussion protocol and the Colts run the push play like the Eagles do in Goal to Go situations. If they get down there, Richardson is in line to run it in.
- Ravens at Browns
- Cleveland Defense/ST +800 (DraftKings) – I don’t like much in this game, as I think it will be low scoring. The Browns’ defense has given Lamar fits his entire career and this may be their best defense to date since Lamar has joined the league. Look for them to disrupt Lamar to the point he turns it over for a score.
4pm Slate:
- Raiders at Chargers
- Davante Adams +110 (PointsBet) – Adams has been a machine thus far and the Chargers’ defense is very bad. I also expect the Raiders to be playing from behind in this one, which gives Adams a favorable game script to produce.
- Keenan Allen +110 (PointsBet) – No Ekeler or Mike Williams this week, queue up another MONSTER Keenan Allen week. The guy is just as productive as they come and Herbert LOVES to pepper Keenan as much as he possibly can.
- Cardinals at 49ers
- Christian McCaffrey -250 (FanDuel) – CMC scores every week, not much else to say. Also in play for two TDs in this game.
- George Kittle +200 (FanDuel) – Kittle should eat in this game. Carolina is not good versus the TE and Kittle is at the top of the TE class. Look for a big game over the middle for Kittle and him either breaking one through the seam or being heavily involved in the Red Zone.
- Patriots at Cowboys
- Jake Ferguson +300 (DraftKings) – The Cowboys’ struggles this season have been in the Red Zone. They rank 27th in the NFL in offensive Red Zone efficiency. To change that, they are going to need to use their two best Red Zone players in Ferguson and Pollard. Ferguson is the most targeted pass catcher in the Red Zone by Dak. I like Ferguson to get in the box here to right the ship.
- Tony Pollard -130 (Caesars) – Pollard needs to be involved and to score for the Cowboys to win. It is just that simple.
- Ezekiel Elliott +240 (PointsBet) – Revenge game narrative, if the Patriots get down into Goal to Go situations, look for Belichick to call Zeke’s number versus his old team.
