Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400
Texas Motor Speedway
Sunday 09/24/23 3:30 PM
1.5 mile, Paved
Playoffs in Texas. This is a 334-lap event.
Last Race Notables: Reddick won. Reddick led 70 laps, Byron led 42 laps, Kes led 31 laps, Blaney led 29 laps, Stenhouse led 23 laps, Larson led 19 laps, Logano led 15 laps. Start/Finish: Haley 31/3, Blaney 14/4, Briscoe 30/5, Jones 27/6, Lajoie 29/14, Ty Dillon 32/16, Cassill 35/22.
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, which makes place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely to be two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend, unlike last year where Harvick got them all.
Process:
Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.
Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:
Point Scoring:
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
DraftKings Scoring:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
- 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
- Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Track Stats:
| Last 4 Races | Driver Pts | Previous Winners | Year | Laps Led | Average Finish | ||
| Blaney | 187 | Reddick | 2022 | Larson | 275 | Larson | 5 |
| Kes | 145 | Larson | 2021 | Blaney | 199 | Blaney | 5.3 |
| Reddick | 136 | Kyle Busch | 2020 | Busch | 121 | Reddick | 6.8 |
| Busch | 134 | A. Dillon | 2020 | Byron | 97 | Kes | 6.8 |
| Byron | 129 | Harvick | 2019 | Truex | 84 | Briscoe | 10 |
| Logano | 126 | Hamlin | 2019 | Harvick | 77 | A. Dillon | 10.8 |
| Harvick | 125 | Harvick | 2018 | Reddick | 75 | Jones | 11.3 |
| Hamlin | 123 | Kyle Busch | 2018 | Kes | 46 | Harvick | 11.3 |
| A. Dillon | 120 | Harvick | 2017 | Elliott | 44 | Logano | 11.3 |
| Jones | 113 | Johnson | 2017 | Bowman | 43 | Busch | 12.3 |
Picks (DK pricing shown)
Top Tier:
- Kyle Larson ($11,200) – Starting 11th.
- William Byron ($10,800) – Starting 18th.
- Kyle Busch ($9,600) – Starting 7th.
- Tyler Reddick ($10,200) – Starting 15th.
Mid Tier:
- Ryan Blaney ($9,400) – Starting 23rd.
- Kevin Harvick ($8,300) – Starting 22nd.
- Joey Logano ($8,100) – Starting 20th.
- Brad Keselowski ($8,900) – Starting 3rd.
Sleepers:
- Chase Briscoe ($6,200) – Starting 31st.
- Erik Jones ($7,300) – Starting 12th.
- Austin Dillon ($6,800) – Starting 13th.
- Justin Haley ($5,900) – Starting 28th.
For More GOAT Bets: See Today’s Plays
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or @GOAT in Discord.
