NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400
Kansas Speedway
Saturday 09/10/23 3:00 PM
1.5 mile, paved
What’s up, 4Deep?! Playoffs race #2 at Kansas for this 267-lap event.
Last Race Notables: Hamlin won. Larson led 85 laps, Truex led 79 laps, Hamlin led 34 laps, Reddick led 23 laps, Byron led 10 laps. Start/Finish: Wallace 17/4, Elliott 21/7, Stenhouse 33/12, Allmendinger 27/14, Haley 30/18, Yeley 35/23.
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, which makes place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely to be two or three of them and really separate them from the pack.
Process:
Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.
Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:
Point Scoring:
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
DraftKings Scoring:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
- 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
- Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Track Stats:
| Last 4 Races | Driver Pts | Previous Winners | Year | Laps Led | Average Finish | ||
| Larson | 169 | Hamlin | 2023 | Larson | 244 | Hamlin | 3 |
| Hamlin | 168 | Bubba Wallace | 2023 | Kurt Busch | 120 | Larson | 3.3 |
| Byron | 150 | Kurt Busch | 2022 | Bowman | 107 | Truex | 6.5 |
| Wallace | 147 | Larson | 2022 | Truex | 103 | Wallace | 7.3 |
| Truex | 144 | Kyle Busch | 2021 | Byron | 101 | Byron | 7.8 |
| Elliott | 141 | Logano | 2021 | Reddick | 91 | Bowman | 8 |
| Chastain | 139 | Hamlin | 2020 | Wallace | 67 | Chastain | 8 |
| Bell | 120 | Hamlin | 2020 | Elliott | 57 | A. Dillon | 11.8 |
| Logano | 116 | Kes | 2019 | Bell | 52 | Logano | 12.3 |
| A. Dillon | 106 | Elliott | 2019 | Hamlin | 34 | Elliott | 12.3 |
Picks (DK pricing shown)
Top Tier:
- Kyle Larson ($10,500) – Starting 2nd.
- Denny Hamlin ($11,000) – Starting 14th.
- Martin Truex ($10,700) – Starting 3rd.
- William Byron ($10,200) – Starting 9th.
- Kyle Busch ($9,600) – Starting 35th.
Mid Tier:
- Bubba Wallace ($9,200) – Starting 10th.
- Joey Logano ($8,800) – Starting 11th.
- Brad Keselowski ($8,300) – Starting 12th.
- Ty Gibbs ($7,600) – Starting 36th.
Sleepers:
- A. Dillon ($6,800) – Starting 8th.
- Aric Almirola ($6,700) – Starting 25th.
- Ricky Stenhouse ($7,300) – Starting 16th.
- Todd Gilliland ($5,200) – Starting 32nd.
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or GOAT in Discord.
