GOAT’s 2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 DFS Breakdown

GOAT's NASCAR DFS Breakdown

NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan
Michigan International Speedway
Sunday 08/06/23 2:30 PM
2 mile

Michigan. This is a 200-lap event.

Last Race Notables: Harvick won. Hamlin and Harvick led 38 laps, Suarez led 33 laps, Bell led 31 laps, Chastain led29 laps, Wallace led 22 laps. Start/Finish: Harvick 16/1, Blaney 24/5, Bowman 30/9, A. Dillon 26/13, Kes 33/15, Lajoie 32/19, McLeod 36/23, Gilliland 37/27

Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions.  Less laps = less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable.  Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely to be two or three of them that really separate themselves from the pack.

Process:
Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar.  We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers.  Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run.  I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off.  The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.

I am trying to narrow things down for you.  Too much information can just be confusing.  If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.

Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:

Point Scoring:
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:

DraftKings Scoring:

  • Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
  • Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
  • Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
  • Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)

FanDuel Scoring:

  • 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
  • Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
  • Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
  • Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
  • Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)

Track Stats:

Last 4 Races Driver Pts Previous Winners Year Laps Led Average Finish
Hamlin 186 Harvick 2022 Harvick 220 Hamlin 3.8
Harvick 179 Blaney 2021 Elliott 77 Harvick 4
Truex 133 Harvick 2020 Hamlin 64 Larson 5.8
Elliott 133 Harvick 2020 Hamlin 64 Truex 6.5
Kyle Busch 131 Harvick 2019 Blaney 39 Elliott 6.8
Blaney 128 Logano 2019 Bell 34 Byron 7.7
Byron 127 Harvick 2018 Suarez 33 Ty Gibbs 8.8
Blaney 128 Truex, Jr 2019 Bell 99 Kyle Busch 10.3
Bell 121 Bowyer 2018 Chastain 29 Blaney 11.8
Jones 119 Larson 2017 Wallace 22 Logano 12

Picks (DK pricing shown)

Top Tier:

  • Kyle Busch ($10,100) – Starting 8th.
  • Kevin Harvick ($10,300) – Starting 22nd.
  • Kyle Larson ($10,800) – Starting 17th.
  • Martin Truex ($10,500) – Starting 5th.
  • William Byron ($10,000) – Starting 7th.

Mid Tier:

  • Chase Elliott ($9,500) – Starting 10th.
  • Joey Logano ($9,300) – Starting 6th.
  • Brad Keselowski ($8,600) – Starting 12th.
  • Ty Gibbs ($8,100) – Starting 3rd.
  • Alex Bowman ($8,000) – Starting 20th.

Sleepers: (Make sure we check starting positions)

  • Erik Jones ($7,300) – Starting 25th.
  • AJ Allmendinger ($6,800) – Starting 24th.
  • Ty Dillon ($5,000) – Starting 34th.
  • Custer ($5,100) – Starting 33rd.

As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or GOAT in Discord.

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