NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan
Michigan International Speedway
Sunday 08/06/23 2:30 PM
2 mile
Michigan. This is a 200-lap event.
Last Race Notables: Harvick won. Hamlin and Harvick led 38 laps, Suarez led 33 laps, Bell led 31 laps, Chastain led29 laps, Wallace led 22 laps. Start/Finish: Harvick 16/1, Blaney 24/5, Bowman 30/9, A. Dillon 26/13, Kes 33/15, Lajoie 32/19, McLeod 36/23, Gilliland 37/27
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely to be two or three of them that really separate themselves from the pack.
Process:
Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.
Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:
Point Scoring:
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
DraftKings Scoring:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
- 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
- Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Track Stats:
| Last 4 Races | Driver Pts | Previous Winners | Year | Laps Led | Average Finish | ||
| Hamlin | 186 | Harvick | 2022 | Harvick | 220 | Hamlin | 3.8 |
| Harvick | 179 | Blaney | 2021 | Elliott | 77 | Harvick | 4 |
| Truex | 133 | Harvick | 2020 | Hamlin | 64 | Larson | 5.8 |
| Elliott | 133 | Harvick | 2020 | Hamlin | 64 | Truex | 6.5 |
| Kyle Busch | 131 | Harvick | 2019 | Blaney | 39 | Elliott | 6.8 |
| Blaney | 128 | Logano | 2019 | Bell | 34 | Byron | 7.7 |
| Byron | 127 | Harvick | 2018 | Suarez | 33 | Ty Gibbs | 8.8 |
| Blaney | 128 | Truex, Jr | 2019 | Bell | 99 | Kyle Busch | 10.3 |
| Bell | 121 | Bowyer | 2018 | Chastain | 29 | Blaney | 11.8 |
| Jones | 119 | Larson | 2017 | Wallace | 22 | Logano | 12 |
Picks (DK pricing shown)
Top Tier:
- Kyle Busch ($10,100) – Starting 8th.
- Kevin Harvick ($10,300) – Starting 22nd.
- Kyle Larson ($10,800) – Starting 17th.
- Martin Truex ($10,500) – Starting 5th.
- William Byron ($10,000) – Starting 7th.
Mid Tier:
- Chase Elliott ($9,500) – Starting 10th.
- Joey Logano ($9,300) – Starting 6th.
- Brad Keselowski ($8,600) – Starting 12th.
- Ty Gibbs ($8,100) – Starting 3rd.
- Alex Bowman ($8,000) – Starting 20th.
Sleepers: (Make sure we check starting positions)
- Erik Jones ($7,300) – Starting 25th.
- AJ Allmendinger ($6,800) – Starting 24th.
- Ty Dillon ($5,000) – Starting 34th.
- Custer ($5,100) – Starting 33rd.
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or GOAT in Discord.
