NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race
Bristol Motor Speedway
Saturday 09/16/23 6:30 PM
0.53 mile, Concrete
Bristol. This is a 500-lap event. Damn Saturday night NASCAR, almost forgot with all this Football stuff going on. Welp, playoffs at Bristol. Short track bumpin’. Here we go!!!
Last Race Notables: Buescher won. Buescher led 169 laps, Bell led 143 laps, Keselowski led 109 laps, Almirola led 36 laps, Larson led 34 laps. Start/Finish: Buescher 20/1, Elliott 23/2, Byron 16/3, Lajoie 31/15, Burton 27/16, Ware 32/17, Gililand 30/18, Suarez 29/19.
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, which makes place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely to be two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.
Process:
Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.
Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:
Point Scoring:
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
DraftKings Scoring:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
- 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
- Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Track Stats:
| Last 4 Races | Driver Pts | Previous Winners | Year | Laps Led | Average Finish | ||
| Harvick | 169 | Buescher | 2022 | Kes | 316 | Larson | 3 |
| Elliott | 151 | Larson | 2021 | Harvick | 297 | Harvick | 6 |
| Kes | 137 | Harvick | 2020 | Kyle Busch | 259 | Allmendinger | 7 |
| Busch | 131 | Kes | 2020 | Elliott | 240 | Jones | 9.3 |
| Hamlin | 123 | Hamlin | 2019 | Larson | 209 | Chastain | 10 |
| Byron | 119 | Kyle Busch | 2018 | Hamlin | 197 | Preece | 12.7 |
| Jones | 116 | Kurt Busch | 2018 | Buescher | 169 | Byron | 13 |
| Bell | 109 | Kyle Busch | 2017 | Bell | 144 | Briscoe | 13.5 |
| Buescher | 102 | Kyle Busch | 2017 | Blaney | 114 | Kes | 13.5 |
| Logano | 100 | Johnson | 2016 | Almirola | 37 | Busch | 13.7 |
Picks (DK pricing shown)
Top Tier:
- Kyle Larson ($11,500) – Starting 36th.
- Denny Hamlin ($11,200) – Starting 2nd.
- Kevin Harvick ($9,500) – Starting 21st.
- Kyle Busch ($10,500) – Starting 15th.
- Christopher Bell ($10,800) – Starting 1st.
Mid Tier:
- Joey Logano ($9,000) – Starting 28th.
- Chris Buescher ($9,300) – Starting 20th.
- Ty Gibbs ($7,900) – Starting 8th.
- Ross Chastain ($8,500) – Starting 23rd.
Sleepers:
- Erik Jones ($7,400) – Starting 31st.
- Ryan Preece (6,300) – Starting 17th.
- Todd Gilliland ($5,300) – Starting 30th.
- Harrison Burton ($5,600) – Starting 32nd.
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or GOAT in Discord.
