Conmann’s 9/16/23 UFC Noche Betting Blueprint

Today’s UFC Noche event is an 11-fight card starting at 7:00PM and airing in its entirety on ESPN+. We have eight total bets! Enjoy the UFC Noche – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)

Betting Terms Key:

  • ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
  • Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
  • Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”

Josefine Knutsson vs. Marnic Mann (women’s)

Notes:
  • Knutsson has a record of 6-0 with 1 win by KO. “Little Thunder” is making his UFC debut.
  • Mann is 6-1 with 4 wins by finish. “The Sawed-Off Savage” was KO in her only loss.
  • Mann is making her UFC debut.
Analysis:

A low-level women’s fight between two debuting fighters to start an only 11-fight event, which has four women’s fights on it and multiple large favorites, including two fights at -750 or more. Needless to say, we are going to be very selective today. Knutsson is a monster -720 favorite here and makes this fight impossible to bet, although I do think Knutsson uses her pressure and kickboxing skills, including hard kicks, to get the job done vs. Marnic Mann. Mann backed into the UFC, losing her DWCS fight via second round KO. “The Sawed-Off Savage” then won a lackluster decision on the regional scene and got the call. I think that Knutsson wins handedly, but I can’t bet it. Pass, No Bet.

Alex Reyes vs. Charlie Campbell

Notes:
  • Reyes is 13-3 with all 13 wins by finish. Alex was KO in 2 of his 3 losses.
  • Campbell is 7-2 with 5 wins by KO. “The Cannibal” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
  • Campbell is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:

There is a lot going on here as Alex Reyes is returning to the UFC after a SIX-year layoff, which included spine-related injuries. Reyes now returns vs. Charlie Campbell, who is nine years younger and has fought his entire nine-fight career during the time that Reyes was away. Ring rust is sure to be on display here, as Campbell will look to press Reyes early and not allow him time to settle in and adjust. “The Cannibal” is a hard-hitting striker who fights aggressively. Many moons ago, Reyes was a promising prospect and has a 100% finishing rate in his 13 victories, but it is very tough to take that much time off and expect him to be the same fighter here. I think Campbell gets it done, but if he doesn’t, I think somehow Reyes pulls a rabbit out of his ass with a finish. Either way, I do not see this fight seeing the judges’ scorecards. I bet fight to NOT start round 3 and used it as a parlay piece.

Tracy Cortez vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (women’s)

Notes:
  • Cortez is 10-1 with 2 wins by finish. Tracy was submitted in her only loss.  
  • Jasudavicius is 9-2 with 3 wins by finish.
Analysis:

This should be a fun, grappling-heavy fight between two very good wrestlers. Tracy Cortez is on a 10-fight winning streak and is 4-0 in the UFC and will be taking on Jasmine Jasudavicius, who has looked very good as of late, with wins in her last two fights. Cortez uses her strength and high-level wrestling to mostly bully her opponents and get takedowns and win via smothering top control. All of Tracy’s four UFC wins have come by decision. Jasudavicius is also a big, strong wrestler, which makes this matchup very intriguing, as she may be the first fighter that Cortez has faced that may be stronger than she. Jasudavicius comes from an Olympic-level wrestling background as well, so this should be a good test of wills for each fighter. I favor Jasudavicius here due to her size and strength, and she may also be the better striker. Cortez has given up takedowns to lesser wrestlers in the past. At +110, I will take the dog here. I bet Jasudavicius +110, risking 1 to win 1.1 units.

Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel da Silva

Notes:
  • Chairez is 10-5 with all 10 wins by finish. “Pitbull” was submitted in 2 of his 5 losses.
  • da Silva is 11-5 with all 16 fights ending by finish.
Analysis:

Daniel da Silva may be the first fighter to start his UFC career 0-4 with four losses by finish and get a chance for a fifth fight. In addition, “Miojo” has never seen a third round in his entire career, as all 16 of his fights have ended in the first or second round. Edgar “Pitbull” Chairez also has a 100% finishing rate in all of his 10 wins. However, he is much more durable and has never been knocked out. Da Silva is very dangerous for the first round and then if he does not get the finish, he wilts, and gets finished. You know my tag, a kill or be killed fighter. Chairez looked very good in his UFC debut, lasting the full 15 minutes vs. undefeated phenom, Tatsuro Taira, and is being handed a layup here in da Silva to style on. I love this spot for Chairez and will bet him to win inside the distance -150, risking 4.5 to win 3 units. I will also bet this fight to NOT start round 3 and use it in a parlay.

Roman Kopylov vs. Josh Fremd

Notes:
  • Kopylov is 11-2 with 10 wins by KO. Roman was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses. 
  • Fremd is 11-4 with 8 wins by finish. Josh was stopped in 2 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:

Roman Kopylov is on a three-fight winning streak with all three wins by knockout. Josh Fremd is on a two-fight winning streak and is taking this fight on a quick turnaround, as he just fought a month ago, winning by unanimous decision. Kopylov is a powerful striker who uses his plus wrestling defense to keep fights standing and Fremd is a strong wrestler making an interesting dynamic. On the feet, Kopylov should have a significant power advantage and Fremd is not that good from range. I like Kopylov in this matchup to defend takedowns and keep the fight standing, where I expect him to find the chin of Fremd, who stands very upright in his stance with very little head movement. I bet Kopylov and used him as a parlay piece.

Lupita Godinez vs. Elise Reed (women’s)

Notes:
  • Godinez is 10-3 with 2 wins by finish. 
  • Reed Is 7-3 with 2 wins by KO. Elise was stopped in all 3 of her losses.

Analysis:

“Loopy” Godinez should have her way with Elise Reed here IF she wrestles! I say IF because “Loopy” has fallen in love with her mediocre boxing and failed to wrestle in fights that she should have in the past. Reed is a middling fighter who comes from a Karate striking background and has TERRIBLE takedown defense. This should be a no-brainer for Godinez to wrestle here. With a switch of training camps with a new team, I believe it will be implored to get the takedowns and win the fight. Reed has been stopped in all three of her losses. I bet Godinez and used her as a parlay piece.

Fernando Padilla vs. Kyle Nelson

Notes:
  • Padilla is 15-4 with 13 wins by finish. 
  • Nelson is 14-5-1 with 9 wins by finish. “The Monster” was stopped in 3 of his 5 losses.
Analysis:

Kyle Nelson is a very serviceable fighter, but will have his hands full here with the long, rangy, and powerful striker, Fernando Padilla, who has 13 of his 15 wins by finish. Nelson was stopped in three of his five losses and I think Padilla has multiple ways to hurt Nelson and get him out of there. I think Fernando will use his two-inch height and five-inch reach advantage to pick apart Nelson from range and wear him down, as Nelson has shown to fade as the fight goes long. Both fighters fight at a slower pace and Padilla is also live for a submission here, as he has eight of his 13 wins by KO. I think the line is too low on Padilla and we are still getting value despite the -245 price tag. I bet Padilla and used him as a parlay piece.

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Christos Giagos

Notes:
  • Zellhuber is 13-1 with 9 wins by finish. 
  • Giagos is 20-10 with 12 wins by finish. “The Spartan” was stopped in 7 of his 10 losses.
Analysis:

Daniel Zellhuber will have a massive three-inch height and six-inch reach advantage in this matchup and it looks even bigger when they faced off at weigh ins. Giagos is a nine-fight UFC veteran who is well-rounded, but not great anywhere, and Zellhuber is nine years younger with massive upside at only 24 years old. “Golden Boy” is a Muay Thai style striker with big power and Giagos has shown to wear over the course of fights if they become grueling. “The Spartan” will need to close the distance here and try to wrestle Zellhuber, which will work against his cardio. Zellhuber has shown a good ability to get back to his feet when taken down, and with the size, youth, and skill, I think he will be too much for Giagos to handle for the full 15 minutes. I bet Zellhuber and used him as a parlay piece.

Raul Rosas vs. Terrence Mitchell

Notes:
  • Rosas is 7-1 with 6 wins by finish. 
  • Mitchell is 14-3 with all 14 wins by finish. “Terr-Bear” was KO in 2 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:

This is clearly a setup fight for Raul Rosas as he is the fighter that the UFC has been marketing and is clearly the A-side in this matchup vs. Terrence Mitchell, who lost his UFC debut via first round KO last time out. Mitchell comes from the spotty Alaska regional MMA scene and his wins have come against VERY low-level opposition. The UFC pushed Rosas too fast, too hard, and gave him a VERY tough matchup his last time out vs. Christian Rodriguez, who put it on the youngster, winning via dominant unanimous decision. This is a “get right” spot for Rosas to get back on track. I bet Rosas to win by submission and used it as a parlay piece.

Kevin Holland vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Notes:
  • Holland is 25-9 with 21 wins by finish. “Trailblazer” was stopped in 4 of his 9 losses. 
  • Maddalena is 15-2 with 13 wins by finish. Jack was stopped in both of his losses.
Analysis:

This is a great fight and one that I am really looking forward to! Jack Della Maddalena is 5-0 in the UFC with four wins by finish and is getting a big step up in competition here vs. Kevin Holland, who will have a massive four-inch height and eight-inch reach advantage in this matchup. The way to beat Holland is to wrestle, and that is not Maddalena’s game, as he is a boxer-style fighter, and he is very hittable, which should play into the advantage of Holland with his size and reach advantage. In this fight, Holland should have the grappling edge, and without the threat of repetitive takedowns from Maddalena, I think Holland controls distance and dictates where this fight takes place en route to handing Maddalena his first UFC loss. I was shocked to see Holland as an underdog here and I will gladly scoop that up! I bet Holland +125, risking 2 to win 2.5 units.

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko (women’s)

Notes:
  • Grasso is 16-3 with 6 wins by finish. Alexa was submitted in 1 of her 3 losses.
  • Shevchenko is 23-4 with 15 wins by finish. “Bullet” was stopped in 2 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:

The Main Event! A rematch from their last fight in March, where Grasso won by stunning upset via submission in the fourth round when Valentina got sloppy on a shot and got choked out. What is very important to note is that Shevchenko was winning the fight up until that point, out striking Grasso 87-59 and had four takedowns compared to zero for Grasso. Shevchenko looks laser-focused and has said all of the right things in her interviews, which lead me to believe that she will get the belt back by tightening up her game. I think she will use that dominant wrestling again, and for sure NOT throw anymore reckless stupid spinning shit, which got her in trouble the first time. Now we get Valentina at a discounted price due to her momentary lapse of sense, and I will gladly pounce on it. I bet on Shevchenko -165, risking 5 to win 3.03 units.

UFC Noche – Official Bets:

  • 7:30: Reyes/Campbell fight to NOT start round 3 & Padilla parlay -127 (3.81 to win 3 units)
  • 8:00: Jasudavicius +110 (1 to win 1.1 units)
  • 8:30: Chairez ITD -150 (4.5 to win 3 units)
  • 8:30: Chairez/Da Silva fight to NOT start round 3 & Kopylov parlay -149 (4.47 to win 3 units)
  • 9:30: Godinez/Zellhuber parlay -139 (2.78 to win 2 units)
  • 9:30: Godinez/Rosas via submission parlay -104 (3.12 to win 3 units)
  • 11:30: Holland +125 (2 to win 2.5 units)
  • 12:00: Shevchenko -165 (5 to win 3.03 units)

Continue Reading: Conmann’s UFC Noche DraftKings Plays

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