4EVER 400 Presented by Mobil 1
Homestead-Miami Speedway
Sunday 10/22/23 2:30 PM
1.5 mile, Paved
This is a 267-lap event.
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Last Race Notables: Larson won. Larson led 199 laps, Byron led 32 laps, Truex led 28 laps. Start/Finish: Chastain 20/2, A Dillon 32/4, Suarez 23/10, Stenhouse 27/15.
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, which makes place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely to be two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend, unlike last year where Harvick got them all.
Process:
Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.
Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:
Point Scoring:
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
DraftKings Scoring:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
- 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
- Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Track Stats:
| Last 4 Races | Driver Pts | Previous Winners | Year | Laps Led | Average Finish | ||
| Truex | 161 | Larson | 2022 | Larson | 204 | Allmendinger | 3 |
| Hamlin | 153 | Byron | 2021 | Truex | 168 | Truex | 5.8 |
| Byron | 140 | Hamlin | 2020 | Hamlin | 143 | Busch | 6.5 |
| Elliott | 129 | Kyle Busch | 2019 | Byron | 134 | Hamlin | 7.3 |
| Busch | 128 | Logano | 2018 | Busch | 122 | A. Dillon | 7.8 |
| A. Dillon | 128 | Truex, Jr | 2017 | Blaney | 70 | Harvick | 10.8 |
| Blaney | 126 | Johnson | 2016 | Buescher | 57 | Elliott | 11.3 |
| Kes | 124 | Kyle Busch | 2015 | Kes | 48 | Bowman | 12 |
| Larson | 122 | Harvick | 2014 | Harvick | 41 | Hemric | 12 |
| Harvick | 109 | Hamlin | 2013 | Logano | 39 | Kes | 12.3 |
Picks (DK pricing shown)
Top Tier:
- Martin Truex ($10,000) – Starting 1st.
- William Byron ($10,500) – Starting 7th.
- Denny Hamlin ($11,000) – Starting 11th.
- Tyler Reddick ($10,700) – Starting 3rd.
Mid Tier:
- Joey Logano ($8,500) – Starting 36th.
- Chase Elliott ($9,200) – Starting 16th.
- Brad Keselowski ($8,300) – Starting 4th.
- Kevin Harvick ($8,100) – Starting 22nd.
Sleepers:
- AJ Allmendinger ($7,000) – Starting 25th.
- Austin Dillon ($6,400) – Starting 6th.
- JH Nemechek ($6,800) – Starting 24th.
- Ricky Stenhouse ($6,700) – Starting 23rd.
For More GOAT Bets: See Today’s Plays
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or @GOAT in Discord.
