GOAT’s 10/15/23 South Point 400 DraftKings Plays

GOAT's NASCAR DFS Breakdown

NASCAR South Point 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Sunday 10/15/23 2:30 PM
1.5 mile, Paved

More Playoffs racing in Vegas this week.  This is a 267-lap event.

Last Race Notables: Byron won.  Byron led 176 laps, Larson led 63 laps, Hamlin led 10 laps.  Start/Finish:  Bowman 11/3, Haley 27/8, Suarez 24/10, Reddick 34/15, Preece 31/23, Burton 35/26.

Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions.  Less laps = less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, which makes place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable.  Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely to be two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.

Process:

Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar.  We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers.  Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run.  I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off.  The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.

I am trying to narrow things down for you.  Too much information can just be confusing.  If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.

Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:

Point Scoring:

Drivers will accumulate points as follows:

DraftKings Scoring:
  • Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
  • Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
  • Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
  • Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
  • 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
  • Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
  • Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
  • Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
  • Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)

Track Stats:

Last 4 Races Driver Pts Previous Winners Year Laps Led Average Finish
Byron 163 Byron 2023 Byron 191 Busch 6
Truex 153 Logano 2022 Larson 185 Truex 6.5
Busch 153 Bowman 2022 Hamlin 183 Reddick 8.5
Hamlin 145 Hamlin 2021 Chastain 151 Bowman 8.7
Chastain 145 Larson 2021 Blaney 57 Byron 9.3
Larson 144 Kyle Busch 2020 Busch 51 Chastain 10
Reddick 128 Logano 2020 Logano 41 Harvick 10.5
Harvick 120 Truex 2019 Reddick 40 Elliott 10.7
Logano 118 Logano 2019 Bell 32 Larson 12.3
Bowman 111 Kes 2018 Suarez 31 Hamlin 12.3

Picks (DK pricing shown)

Top Tier:

  • William Byron($10,600) – Starting 3rd.
  • Kyle Larson ($11,000) – Starting 2nd.
  • Denny Hamlin ($10,800) – Starting 15th.
  • Martin Truex ($10,000) – Starting 4th.
  • Tyler Reddick ($10,300) Starting 8th

Mid Tier:

  • Kyle Busch ($9,400) – Starting 6th.
  • Chase Elliott ($9,200) Starting 35th.  
  • Kevin Harvick ($8,000) Starting 24th.   
  • Alex Bowman ($7,700) – Starting 14th.

Sleepers:

  • Daniel Suarez ($7,300) Starting 36th.  
  • Justin Haley ($5,900) Starting 20th.
  • Harrison Burton ($5,600) Starting 33rd.  
  • Ty Dillon ($5,100) Starting 27th.

For More GOAT Bets: See Today’s Plays

As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or @GOAT in Discord.

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