NASCAR South Point 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Sunday 10/15/23 2:30 PM
1.5 mile, Paved
More Playoffs racing in Vegas this week. This is a 267-lap event.
Last Race Notables: Byron won. Byron led 176 laps, Larson led 63 laps, Hamlin led 10 laps. Start/Finish: Bowman 11/3, Haley 27/8, Suarez 24/10, Reddick 34/15, Preece 31/23, Burton 35/26.
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, which makes place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely to be two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.
Process:
Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.
Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:
Point Scoring:
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
DraftKings Scoring:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
- 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
- Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Track Stats:
| Last 4 Races | Driver Pts | Previous Winners | Year | Laps Led | Average Finish | ||
| Byron | 163 | Byron | 2023 | Byron | 191 | Busch | 6 |
| Truex | 153 | Logano | 2022 | Larson | 185 | Truex | 6.5 |
| Busch | 153 | Bowman | 2022 | Hamlin | 183 | Reddick | 8.5 |
| Hamlin | 145 | Hamlin | 2021 | Chastain | 151 | Bowman | 8.7 |
| Chastain | 145 | Larson | 2021 | Blaney | 57 | Byron | 9.3 |
| Larson | 144 | Kyle Busch | 2020 | Busch | 51 | Chastain | 10 |
| Reddick | 128 | Logano | 2020 | Logano | 41 | Harvick | 10.5 |
| Harvick | 120 | Truex | 2019 | Reddick | 40 | Elliott | 10.7 |
| Logano | 118 | Logano | 2019 | Bell | 32 | Larson | 12.3 |
| Bowman | 111 | Kes | 2018 | Suarez | 31 | Hamlin | 12.3 |
Picks (DK pricing shown)
Top Tier:
- William Byron($10,600) – Starting 3rd.
- Kyle Larson ($11,000) – Starting 2nd.
- Denny Hamlin ($10,800) – Starting 15th.
- Martin Truex ($10,000) – Starting 4th.
- Tyler Reddick ($10,300) – Starting 8th.
Mid Tier:
- Kyle Busch ($9,400) – Starting 6th.
- Chase Elliott ($9,200) – Starting 35th.
- Kevin Harvick ($8,000) – Starting 24th.
- Alex Bowman ($7,700) – Starting 14th.
Sleepers:
- Daniel Suarez ($7,300) – Starting 36th.
- Justin Haley ($5,900) – Starting 20th.
- Harrison Burton ($5,600) – Starting 33rd.
- Ty Dillon ($5,100) – Starting 27th.
For More GOAT Bets: See Today’s Plays
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or @GOAT in Discord.
