Today’s UFC Vegas 79 event is an 11-fight card starting at 4:00PM and airing in its entirety on ESPN+. We have six total bets! Enjoy the UFC Vegas 79 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)
Betting Terms Key:
- ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
- Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
- Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”
Montserrat Rendon vs. Tamires Vidal (women’s)
Notes:
- Rendon has a record of 5-0. “Monster” is making her UFC debut.
- Vidal is 7-1 with 3 wins by finish. “Tratora” was submitted in her only loss.
Analysis:
Montserrat Rendon is an undefeated, 5-0 Mexican prospect, who will be making her UFC debut vs. Tamires Vidal, who won her UFC debut last time out via first round KO. This fight sets up as a striker vs. grappler matchup with Vidal, a kickboxer, and the debutant Rendon, a grappler. Each fighter should have a significant advantage over the other in their respective skill sets, however, Rendon does not have strong wrestling and if she is unable to get this fight to the ground and keep it there, she is going to get wrecked on the feet. I like Vidal to win, but do not want to lay -230 on her. No Bet.
Mizuki Inoue vs. Hannah Goldy (women’s)
Notes:
- Inoue is 14-6 with all 9 wins by submission.
- Goldy is 6-3 with 2 wins by finish. “24K” was KO in 1 of her 3 losses.
Analysis:
Mizuki is returning to action after a three-year layoff and is a -330 favorite over a below average fighter in Hannah Goldy, who is 1-3 in her four-fight UFC career. Mizuki is primarily a grappler and has nine of her 14 career wins by submission. Goldy is a Karate style striker with poor takedown defense and Mizuki has decent boxing and will have a four-inch reach advantage here, which will make this a very tough matchup for Goldy, wherever the fight takes place. Just like the first fight of the night, I like the favorite, but cannot lay the price. Pass, No Bet.
Mohammed Usman vs. Jake Collier
Notes:
- Usman is 9-2 with 6 wins by finish. “The Motor” was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.
- Collier is 13-9 with 9 wins by finish. “The Prototype” was stopped in 5 of his 9 losses.
Analysis:
Mohammed Usman is 2-0 in the UFC and is a big, strong, powerful heavyweight. He is also a plodding fighter who offers very low volume in his striking and has shown to be a capable wrestler, albeit vs. low-level opposition. Jake Collier is on a three-fight losing streak, but is slightly better than his ledger shows, as he has lost a couple of split decisions that could have gone his way. “The Prototype” is a high-volume striker and is very light on his feet for a heavyweight and his movement and range could frustrate Usman here, who will be looking to land a big KO punch or drag Collier to the ground. I think that if Collier can keep range and avoid being stuck on bottom if taken down, his volume striking could be enough to pull off the upset here. I bet Collier +125, risking 1 to win 1.25 units.
Jacob Malkoun vs. Cody Brundage
Notes:
- Malkoun is 7-2 with 2 wins by KO. “Mamba” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
- Brundage is 8-5 with 7 wins by finish. Cody was stopped in 3 of his 5 losses.
Analysis:
Jacob Malkoun is the biggest favorite on the card, and rightfully so. “Mamba” is a monster wrestler and has 31 takedowns over his last four fights. Cody Brundage is on a three-fight losing streak and is a fighter that looks for a big KO. He has shown to wilt if he cannot get the knockout. Malkoun is not just a good wrestler, he has exceptionally good top control and pressure. Brundage is facing a tall task here, as he is not a good wrestler, and even more concerning for him, is that he seems to accept the takedown and tries to get a guillotine, which lands him on his back if he does not pull it off. Tough sledding here vs. Malkoun, and it is a tailor-made matchup for him to dominate. Another item to factor is that Brundage took this fight as a replacement on just 2.5 weeks’ notice. I bet Malkoun and used him as a parlay piece.
Tim Means vs. Andre Fialho
Notes:
- Means is 32-15-1 with 24 wins by finish. “The Dirty Bird” was stopped in 9 of his 15 losses.
- Fialho is 16-7 with 14 wins by finish. Andre was KO in 5 of his 7 losses.
Analysis:
This fight is a VIOLENCE spot and sets up perfectly for us to bet, as Andre Fialho either wins in round 1 or typically gets finished in rounds 2 or 3. In fact, five of his six UFC fights have followed this script, with only his UFC debut going the distance. Tim “The Dirty Bird” Means is now 39 years old and is very shop-worn from a grueling 49-fight career spanning 19 years. Means is on a three-fight losing streak and was submitted in two of those three losses. Fialho is not a submission threat and will be headhunting for the KO, as 13 of his 16 career wins have come via KO. Means is a technical, high-volume striker, and is also a capable grappler. This fight is another example of a fight that is extremely mispriced, and I love the fight to end inside the distance. I nearly fell off my chair when I saw the line at -225 to end early and was expecting to see an unbettable number near -600. You know what we do when we identify a bad line, we SMASH! I bet fight to end inside the distance and used it as a parlay piece.
Dan Argueta vs. Miles Johns
Notes:
- Argueta is 9-1 with 6 wins by finish.
- Johns is 13-2 with 6 wins by finish. “Chapo” was stopped in both of his losses.
Analysis:
Dan Argueta was dominating Ronnie Lawrence his last time out prior to the referee stopping the fight by error after he thought Lawrence was unconscious. The stoppage ruled in a no contest, which is a terrible rule that we just saw repeated last weekend with the Chairez/Lacerda fight. Argueta is a good wrestler with a decent submission game and has some power on the feet, but offers low volume. Johns is a “wrestle-boxer” with below average cardio, which is an unusual mix considering his style. I lean Argueta here, but not enough to lay -185 on him. No Bet.
Ricardo Ramos vs. Charles Jourdain
Notes:
- Ramos is 16-4 with 11 wins by finish. “Carcacinha” was stopped in 3 of his 4 losses.
- Jourdain is 14-6-1 with 12 wins by finish. “Air” was submitted in 1 of his 6 losses.
Analysis:
Charles Jourdain is a high-volume striker with average takedown defense and has good durability, having only been finished in one of his career losses. “Air” Jourdain is a middling 5-5-1 in his 11 UFC fights. Ricardo Ramos is a dangerous striker with good power and does a great job mixing in kicks, along with unorthodox strikes, such as spinning elbows, which he used in his last fight to earn a first round KO win. “Carcacinha” is also a black belt in BJJ and a good wrestler, who averages just under three takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. I was a bit surprised to see Jourdain as the favorite here and will gladly pounce on the plus-money side who holds a wrestling and submission edge, along with being near equal in the striking department. I bet Ramos + 120, risking 2 to win 2.4 units.
Bryan Battle vs. AJ Fletcher
Notes:
- Battle is 9-2 with 7 wins by finish. “Pooh Bear” was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.
- Fletcher is 10-2 with 9 wins by finish.
Analysis:
I like this fight to be a violence spot with each fighter having significant advantages in different areas. Battle is three inches taller and will have a HUGE 10-inch reach advantage. Fletcher has big power, with nine of his 10 wins by finish, and good durability, as he has not been stopped in either of his losses. Battle is 4-1 in his UFC fights and has looked good. “Pooh Bear” is a big moment fighter with KO power and good submission skills, but lacks in between, such as wrestling and control time. Fletcher is very powerful and explosive with his striking and wrestling and looks like a little spark plug. Fletcher pushes a high pace with big overhand punches that lead to his plus wrestling. It is tough for me to pick a side here, as I can make an argument for both sides, but I do believe this fight ends inside the distance with one fighter coming through with an explosive movement. I bet fight ITD and used it as a parlay piece.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson (women’s)
Notes:
- Rodriguez is 16-3-2 with 7 wins by finish. Marina was KO in 1 of her 3 losses.
- Waterson is 18-11 with 12 wins by finish. “The Karate Hottie” was stopped in 5 of her 11 losses.
Analysis:
This is a rematch that NOBODY asked for or wanted in a fight that we saw Marina Rodriguez win via unanimous decision in a five-round fight that she clearly dominated for the most part. Why are we running this back? Waterson only got older and is now 37 years old and on a three-fight losing streak. Rodriguez has gone 2-2 since their first fight, only losing to top of the division fighters Virna Jandiroba and Amanda Lemos. I don’t see Waterson improving as she gets older and losing three in a row, as where I can see Rodriguez in a get-right spot after two losses vs. an opponent that she already clearly defeated. Give me Rodriguez. Big favorite, but what I feel is a safe parlay leg. I bet Rodriguez and used her as a parlay piece.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Dan Ige
Notes:
- Mitchell is 15-1 with 9 wins by submission. “Thug Nasty” was submitted in his only loss.
- Ige is 17-6 with 10 wins by finish.
Analysis:
This is a really fun co-main event and one that I am very much looking forward to between two fighters that I really like. Dan “50K” Ige is extremely durable and has never been stopped in his 23-fight career and is a fighter that will ALWAYS fight for your money! Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell is coming off his first career loss as the Jiu Jitsu ace was submitted by undefeated 14-0 monster, Ilia Topuria, who very well just might be the best fighter not named Alexander Volkov in the 145-lb. division. This is a good litmus test for Mitchell to see where he stands in his career and the division. Mitchell has sloppy striking and very good wrestling and jiu jitsu. Ige is a black belt in BJJ, a good wrestler, and an exceptional boxer, using crisp strikes with KO power in both hands. I like Ige here in this spot as an underdog and will gladly scoop up the +170. I bet Ige +170, risking 1 to win 1.7 units.
Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Notes:
- Fiziev is 12-2 with 9 wins by finish, including 8 by KO. “Ataman” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
- Gamrot is 22-2 with 12 wins by finish.
Analysis:
The Main Event! This should be a good fight between otherworldly striker, Rafael Fiziev, and takedown machine, Mateusz Gamrot, who averages almost five takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon time. Fiziev is a VERY high-level striker with a Muay Thai style and also has exceptional takedown defense, which will surely be tested here throughout. Gamrot is a great wrestler as mentioned, but does not have good control once on the ground and I envision Fiziev to be able to get back up if the takedown occurs. On the feet, Fiziev will have a significant advantage in the striking exchanges as Gamrot really does not have much to offer there vs. ”Ataman,” who has big power and crushing leg kicks. I like Fiziev to hurt Gamrot on the feet while dealing with the nuisance of defending his takedowns along the way, ultimately winning the fight either by KO or a decision victory. I bet Fiziev -155, risking 3.1 to win 2 units.
Conmann’s UFC Vegas 79 – Official Bets:
- 5:00: Collier +125 (1 to win 1.25 units)
- 5:30: Malkoun & Means/Fialho fight ITD -143 (7.1 to win 5 units)
- 7:00: Ramos +120 (2 to win 2.4 units)
- 7:30: Battle/Fletcher fight ITD & Rodriguez parlay +110 (2 to win 2.2 units)
- 8:30: Ige +170 (1 to win 1.7 units)
- 9:00: Fiziev -155 (3 to win 2.1 units)
