Conmann’s 8/12/23 UFC Vegas 78 Betting Blueprint

Conmann's UFC Betting Blueprint

Today’s UFC Vegas 78 event is a 13-fight card starting at 4:00PM with the card airing in its entirety on ESPN. We have eight total bets, including a five-unit Bomb! Enjoy the UFC Nashville – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)

Betting Terms Key:

  • ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
  • Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
  • Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”

Juliana Miller vs. Luana Santos
Notes:

  • Miller has a record of 3-2 with all 3 wins by finish. 
  • Santos is 5-1 with 3 wins by submission. Luana is making her UFC debut.

Analysis:
Great, a low-level women’s MMA fight to start the card. Luana Santos, a 5-1 prospect, is making her UFC debut against former Ultimate Fighter winner, and loser of her last fight, Juliana Miller. Santos has a Judo background and has three submission victories. Miller has decent grappling and below average takedown defense, which will pose a problem stylistically in this matchup. Santos has good striking with some power and looks to have Miller covered skill wise in multiple facets of the game. I lean Santos, but cannot lay money on a debuting women’s MMA fight. Pass, No Bet.

Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Jose Johnson
Notes:

  • Blackshear has a record of 13-5-1 with 10 wins by finish, including 8 by submission. 
  • Johnson is 15-7 with 10 wins by finish, including 8 by KO. “No Way” was stopped in 4 of his 7 losses.
  • Johnson is making his UFC debut.

Analysis:
Jose Johnson will be making his UFC debut as a late notice replacement, taking on Da’Mon Blackshear, who picked up his first UFC win his last time out. Johnson is a long, rangy striker with good power and terrible takedown defense. “No Way” gave up 12, and then six, takedowns in his two Contender Series fights. Blackshear is a strong grappler who excels at taking the back and has average wrestling, however, that should be enough to drag this fight to the ground at some point, where he will have his biggest advantage in this matchup. I like Blackshear to get the win and he is live for a submission. I bet Blackshear and used him as a parlay piece. 

Jaqueline Amorim vs. Montserrat Ruiz (women’s)
Notes:

  • Amorim is 6-1 with all 6 wins by finish. 
  • Ruiz is 10-2 with 5 wins by finish. “Conejo” was KO in 1 of her 2 losses.

Analysis:
Jaqueline Amorim is coming off her first loss after defeating all six previous opponents inside the distance. Montserrat “Conejo” Ruiz is also coming in off a loss, however, she is 1-1 in her two UFC fights. Amorim showed cardio issues in her debut loss and is a one-dimensional submission fighter. Ruiz is returning off a two-year layoff and a 35-second KO loss. “Conejo” oddly, is one-dimensional in her game, and is a “one trick pony,” utilizing a scarf hold takedown early and often to get her opponent to the ground. That might be tough to pull off against Amorim, who is the bigger fighter in this matchup and will have a three-inch height and a seven-inch reach advantage. Even if and when this fight hits the mat, Amorim is the better overall grappler. I bet Amorim and used her as a parlay piece.

Josh Parisian vs. Martin Buday
Notes:

  • Parisian is 15-6 with 13 wins by finish, including 11 by KO. Josh was stopped in 3 of his 6 losses. 
  • Buday is 12-1 with 8 wins by finish, including 7 by KO.

Analysis:
Martin Buday is 3-0 in the UFC and is riding an 11-fight winning streak. Josh Parisian is 2-3 in his five UFC fights and is a fighter with big power, bad takedown defense, and poor cardio. Buday is primarily a striker who also likes to bull his opponents up against the cage, where he uses control time and strikes from the clinch to win minutes. Parisian is big and stiff and is nothing that Buday has yet to face. Buday will have the grappling advantage if the fight hits the mat, but I expect a lot of cage control in a boring fight. I like Buday here in this spot, and as long as he continues to fight smart like he has previously, skill wise he has Parisian covered. I bet Buday and used him as a parlay piece.

Francis Marshall vs. Isaac Dulgarian
Notes:

  • Marshall is 7-1 with 5 wins by finish. 
  • Dulgarian is 5-0 with all 5 wins by finish. “The MidWest Choppa” is making his UFC debut.

Analysis:
Francis Marshall is coming off his first career loss in a fight that he underwhelmed in. I hope to chalk it up as a learning experience for Francis, as he is a young fighter that I like. Isaac Dulgarian is making his UFC debut and is undefeated at 5-0, with all five wins by first round finish. Marshall has good cardio and wrestling, but struggled in the striking game in his loss. Dulgarian has power in his strikes and is a former college wrestler. This fight should be a high-octane, fast-paced affair, which I think concludes in violence. Dulgarian only has 7.5 minutes of cage time in five career fights and has only beaten one opponent with a winning record, and that fighter is 41 years old. I like Marshall in this spot, and I also like the fight to end inside the distance, which will serve as a double down or hedge. I bet Marshall and fight ITD, using both as parlay pieces.

Terrance McKinney vs. Mike Breeden
Notes:

  • McKinney is 13-6 with all 13 wins by finish. “T.Wrecks” was stopped in all 6 of his losses.  
  • Breeden is 10-5 with 8 wins by KO. “Money” was KO in 2 of his 5 losses.

Analysis:
Terrance McKinney is the poster child for a “kill or be killed” fighter, with all 19 of his fights ending by finish. “T.Wrecks” is explosive with big power and very good wrestling, but has poor cardio, which when all baked together, leads to a violent outcome. Mike Breeden is 0-2 in the UFC, and I think this is a get-right spot for McKinney, who took this fight on nine days’ notice. Breeden struggles against good wrestlers and  has been finished by knockout in two of his five losses. I think this is the perfect spot for McKinney, who will have a three-inch reach advantage in this matchup, to get back on track. I bet McKinney and used him as a parlay piece.

JP Buys vs. Marcus McGhee
Notes:

  • Buys is 9-5 with 8 wins by finish. “Young Savage” was stopped in 4 of his 5 losses.
  • McGhee Is 7-1 with all 7 wins by finish. “The Maniac” was submitted in his only loss.

Analysis:
JP Buys stinks and Marcus McGhee looked like an animal in his UFC debut, winning by second round submission. Buys is 0-3 in his UFC fights and looked bad in all of them. McGhee has finished all seven of his wins and trains with a great team, the MMA Lab, and will be very well prepared to get his second UFC win. Ultimately, this fight should play out as striker vs. grappler, with McGhee looking to stand and bang and Buys looking to take the fight to the ground. McGhee will have a three-inch height and a two-inch reach advantage and will be the bigger and stronger fighter here. I bet McGhee and used him as a parlay piece.

Josh Fremd vs. Jamie Pickett
Notes:

  • Fremd is 10-4 with 8 wins by finish. Josh was stopped in 2 of his 4 losses. 
  • Pickett is 13-9 with 9 wins by KO. “The Nightwolf” was stopped in 6 of his 9 losses.

Analysis:
Jamie Pickett is on a three-fight losing streak and is coming off a loss to Bo Nickal, where he was served on a platter as a sacrificial lamb for the mega prospect. Josh Fremd is well-rounded, but his strong point is his wrestling and leg kicks. Pickett has big power, with nine wins by knockout. Although Fremd can hang on the feet offensively, he gets hit too easily and should look to wrestle early and often. Fremd missed weight and looked a little ragged at weigh ins. I have seen some video of him since, and it looks like he recovered well. I think Fremd has Pickett covered everywhere and gets the win, along with sending Pickett packing with his walking papers. I bet Fremd and used him as a parlay piece.

AJ Dobson vs. Tafon Nchukwi
Notes:

  • Dobson is 6-2 with 5 wins inside the distance. 
  • Nchukwi is 6-3 with 4 wins by KO. “Da Don” was KO in 2 of his 3 losses.

Analysis:
AJ Dobson is 0-2 in the UFC, but has lost to top fighters Armen Petrosyan and Jacob Malkoun. Tafon Nchukwi is also on a two-fight losing streak, losing both by knockout. “Da Don” is a high-paced kickboxer-style fighter with big power, and has four of his six wins by knockout. Dobson, like Nchukwi, is primarily a striker. Both fighters are very hittable on the feet and Dobson should have a slight wrestling edge. Nchukwi missed weight and looked worn at weigh ins and even a bit slow later at faceoffs after hydrating. I like Dobson in this spot as an underdog. I bet Dobson +120, risking 1 to win 1.2 units.

Polyana Viana vs. Iasmin Lucindo (women’s)
Notes:

  • Viana is 13-5 with all 13 wins by finish. “Dama de Ferro” was submitted in 1 of her 5 losses.
  • Lucindo is 14-5 with 10 wins by finish, including 8 by KO. Iasmin was stopped in 3 of her 5 losses.

Analysis:
Polyana Viana has a 100% finishing rate in her 13 career wins and is durable, as she has only been stopped once in her five career losses. Iasmin Lucindo is 1-1 in her two UFC fights and is a high-paced, heavy-hitting striker with great leg kicks. Viana has never shied away from violence, which makes this fight a potential car crash. Viana is a black belt in BJJ and has eight of her 13 wins by submission. “Dama de Ferro” has shown to slow down as the fight goes on and is most dangerous early. I lean Viana as a dog +160, but as of this writing, I did not bet it. No Bet.

Khalil Rountree vs. Chris Daukaus
Notes:

  • Rountree is 11-5 with 7 wins by KO. “The War Horse” was stopped in 3 of his 5 losses.
  • Daukaus is 12-6 with 11 wins by KO. Chris was stopped in all 6 of his losses.

Analysis:
Chris Daukaus is making his debut in the light heavyweight division after going 4-3 in his seven UFC fights at heavyweight. Chris won his first four UFC fights and then lost his last three, all by knockout. Rountree has won his last three UFC fights and is coming off a solid victory over a very good fighter in Dustin Jacoby. “The War Horse” is a kickboxer, with seven knockouts in 11 career victories. Daukaus was finished in all six of his losses and Rountree in three of his five losses, which leads to a “violence” spot here. While Rountree is a kicker who prefers to create space and strike, Daukaus has a boxing style where he wants to close distance and crowd Rountree, who also has poor takedown defense and grappling. I hope that Chris grapples here, and if he does, I think he gets the DUB. The play here is VIOLENCE! I bet fight to NOT start round 3 and used it as a parlay piece.

Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu
Notes:

  • Swanson is 28-13 with 17 wins by finish. “Killer” was stopped in 10 of his 13 losses.
  • Dawodu is 13-3-1 with 7 wins by KO. “Mean” was submitted in 1 of his 3 losses.

Analysis:
In the co-main event, longtime UFC veteran and fan favorite, Cub Swanson, will be taking on Hakeem Dawodu. Swanson is now 40 years old and has lost two of his last three fights, including a KO loss his last time out vs. Jonathan Martinez, and is clearly on the downhill portion of his career. Dawodu has also lost two of his last three fights and is a high-volume striker with good speed. Cub is a good striker and has good wrestling, which he should lean on here, as that will be his biggest advantage in this matchup vs. Hakeem, who has struggled in the grappling department and would prefer a striking match. Swanson is moving back up to lightweight after one fight at 135 lbs. and Dawodu will be the bigger fighter and have a three-inch reach advantage. I bet Dawodu and used him as a parlay piece.

Vicente Luque vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
Notes:

  • Luque is 21-9-1 with 19 wins by finish. “The Silent Assassin” was stopped in 3 of his 9 losses.
  • Dos Anjos is 32-14 with 16 wins by finish, including 11 by submission. Rafael was KO in 4 of his 14 losses.

Analysis:
This is a fun main event between two fighters that I am very familiar with. Vicente Luque trained at my gym years ago and currently trains with Mickey Gall, and I have cornered against Dos Anjos in the UFC when Khabib beat him via unanimous decision. “RDA” is a good striker with very hard kicks and a high-level grappling game that includes good wrestling and high-level Jiu Jitsu. Luque is extremely well-rounded as well, and will have a six-inch reach advantage in this matchup. I love Vicente, but he is coming off back-to-back losses, including a KO in his last fight, and more concerning, a brain injury. I think that this is a bad matchup for Luque and Dos Anjos has him covered everywhere except size. I bet Dos Anjos – 115, risking 1.15 to win 1 unit.

UFC Vegas 78 – Official Bets:

  • 4:30: Blackshear/Marshall parlay +115 (1 to win 1.15 units)
  • 4:30: Blackshear & Marshall/Dulgarian fight ITD parlay +102 (1 to win 1.02 units)
  • 4:30: Blackshear/Fremd parlay -129 (2.58 to win 2 units)
  • 5:00: Amorim & Daukaus/Rountree fight to NOT start round 3 parlay -109 (2.18 to win 2 units)
  • 5:30: Buday/Dawodu parlay +1112 (2 to win 2.22 units)
  • 6:30: McKinney/McGhee parlay -128 (6.4 to win 5 units)
  • 8:00: Dobson +120 (1 to win 1.2 units)
  • 10:00: Dos Anjos -115 (1.15 to win 1 units)

Continue Reading: Conmann’s UFC Vegas 78 DFS Breakdown

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