Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:
Today’s UFC Vegas 88 event is a 13-fight card starting at 4:00PM and airing in its entirety on ESPN+. We have six bets! Enjoy the UFC Vegas 88 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)
Fight Breakdowns: Join @Conmann22 in Discord voice chat at 2pm EST
Betting Terms Key:
- ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
- Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
- Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”
Charalampos Grigoriou vs. Chad Anheliger
Notes:
- Grigoriou is 8-3 with 6 wins by KO. “Pampos” was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
- Anheliger is 12-7 with 10 wins by finish, including 7 by KO. “The Monster” was submitted in 6 of his 7 losses.
- Grigoriou is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:
Charalampos Grigoriou is making his UFC debut vs. Chad Anheliger, who is 1-2 in his three UFC fights. Grigoriou is a striker with big power and has six of his eight wins by KO. “Pampos” mixes in good leg kicks with his power punches and has also shown decent offensive wrestling. Anheliger is now 37 years old and taking this fight on late notice, which is a concern. “The Monster” also has good power in his strikes, and although he landed four takedowns in his last fight, Anheliger generally struggles defending the takedown, and once grounded, he has poor submission defense as evidenced by his six out of seven losses by submission. Grigoriou is not much of a submission threat so this fight will most likely stay on the feet where either guy can win. Tough fight to pick a side on. Pass.
No Bet.
Thiago Moises vs. Mitch Ramirez
Notes:
- Moises is 17-7 with 11 wins by finish, including 8 by submission. Thiago was stopped in 3 of his 7 losses.
- Ramirez is 8-1 with 7 wins by finish, including 5 by KO. “The Fight Stalker” was KO in his only loss. Ramirez is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:
Mitch Ramirez is making his UFC debut and is 8-1 overall with seven finishes coming off a 1st round KO in LFA. Thiago Moises is an 11-fight UFC veteran with a 6-5 record, and he has fought many good fighters at this level and will have vast experience and the quality of opponents advantage. Ramirez has a lot of power, using wild hooks and leg kicks in his striking attack as well as being a decent grappler. “The Fight Stalker” is a big kid and may have a future, but this is a very tall task for his UFC debut against such a solid experienced veteran in Moises. Ramirez has also shown questionable cardio, which could also be a factor coupled with the nerves of a UFC debut.
I bet Moises and used him in a parlay.
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Cory McKenna
Notes:
- Amorim is 7-1 with 7 wins by finish, including 5 by submission.
- McKenna is 8-2 with 4 wins by finish.
Analysis:
This is a pivotal fight for Jaqueline Amorim, who is 1-1 in the UFC with one good showing and one poor showing. Amorim is a black belt in BJJ and was a very successful grappling champion prior to her MMA career. Cory McKenna is primarily a grappler, which is not optimal in this matchup and her striking is very low output. Amorim has a bad gas tank and really struggled in her loss to an average at best Sam Hughes. After a strong first round, she completely gassed. This fight might come down to wrestling and cardio and those two edges go to McKenna. I want to bet Amorim here as I think she is the much better submission grappler, but I can’t trust her gas tank. I lean Amorim as an underdog, but not enough for a bet. Pass.
No Bet.
Joshua Culibao vs. Danny Silva
Notes:
- Culibao is 11-2-1 with 6 wins by finish, including 5 by KO. “Kuya” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
- Silva is 8-1 with 5 wins by KO. “Puma” is making his UFC debut.
Analysis:
Danny Silva is making his UFC debut and he missed weight and did not look good on the scale. Josh Culibao is 3-2-1 in his six UFC fights and is a low-volume striker with good power. Silva is a very high-volume striker with a boxing style, and he also mixes in good leg kicks. Both fighters struggle to defend the takedown, but I do not think either must worry here, as they both prefer to strike. The volume of Silva is overwhelming, but the missed weight might hamper his cardio later in this fight. Culibao is more of a big moment fighter than a round winner and I think the UFC experience, power, and quality of previous opponents gives Culibao the edge here.
I bet on Culibao and used him in a parlay.
Jafel Filho vs. Ode Osbourne
Notes:
- Filho is 15-3 with 14 wins by finish. “Pastor” was submitted in 2 of his 3 losses.
- Osbourne is 12-6 with 9 wins by finish. “The Jamaican Sensation” was stopped in 5 of his 6 losses.
Analysis:
Jafel Filho is 1-1 in the UFC and is a very good grappler with a black belt in BJJ and an arsenal of tricky submissions. Ode Osbourne is 4-4 in his eight UFC fights and is a very explosive fighter with nine of his 12 wins by finish. “The Jamaican Sensation” is a big moment fighter and struggles when put on his back foot and his cardio starts to go as the fight goes long. Filho has good power in his striking game and will press Osbourne until he gets the takedown, and the ground is where he will have his biggest edge, as Osbourne has been submitted in five of his six losses. Combine that fact with Filho finishing 14 of his 15 victories and I think this leads to a Filho win by finish.
I bet Filho to win inside the distance +110, risking 2 to win 2.2 units.
Josiane Nunes vs. Chelsea Chandler
Notes:
- Nunes is 10-1 with 7 wins by KO.
- Chandler is 5-2 with 3 wins by finish.
Analysis:
Chelsea Chandler dropped her last fight after winning her UFC debut and is a very big fighter who missed weight yesterday and looked terrible on the scale. Josiane Nunes is 3-0 in the UFC thus far, and although diminutive, she is a big power puncher with a big looping overhand left that she throws from her southpaw stance. Chandler is a lumbering type of fighter who has decent boxing, but she will much prefer to get the fight to the ground and secure top position hunting for submissions and using ground and pound. Nunes has shown to slow down a bit later in fights, and with Chandler being so much bigger and potentially shot from the weight cut, this could be a slog fest. NO interest for me betting on this circus-style bout.
No Bet.
Natan Levy vs. Mike Davis
Notes:
- Levy is 8-1 with 3 wins by submission.
- Davis is 10-2 with 8 wins by finish, including 7 by KO. “Beast Boy” was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:
Mike “Beast Boy” Davis returns to the Octagon after a year and a half layoff and is a powerful striker with seven of his 10 wins by KO. Natan Levy is primarily a grappler and has a kickboxing style of striking when the fight is standing. Davis is on a three-fight winning streak and Levy is on a two-fight winning streak. Davis will have a big edge when the fight is on the feet with his power striking and Levy should most likely look to wrestle early, which could also be a problem vs. Davis, who is a good wrestler as well. Levey is good at getting takedowns, but struggles to control his opponents when they are grounded, which also could be a big problem vs. the explosive Davis. I like Davis here to be the better fighter everywhere and get the job done.
I bet Davis and used him in a parlay.
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Bryan Barberena
Notes:
- Meerschaert is 35-17 with 33 wins by finish, including 27 by submission. “GM3” was stopped in all 12 of his 17 losses.
- Barberena is 18-11 with 13 wins by finish, including 11 by KO. “Bam Bam” was stopped in 5 of his 11 losses.
Analysis:
This fight is a striker vs. grappler matchup with Bryan Barberena a volume-based striker, vs. Gerald Meerschaert, who is the grappler with 27 wins by submission. Barberena is on a three-fight losing streak and Meerschaert is on a two-fight losing streak, making this a must-win fight for both fighters if they want to stay on the UFC roster. Meerschaert will have a one-inch height and a five-inch reach advantage in this matchup and he will use his size to close the distance and get this fight to the ground, where he will have his biggest edge in this matchup. On the flip side, “GM3” is not very durable as he has been finished in 12 of his 17 losses. Barberena has very poor takedown defense at just 49% and I think that will be the determining factor here.
I bet Meerschaert to win by submission +120, risking 2 to win 2.4 units.
Pannie Kianzad vs. Macy Chiasson
Notes:
- Kianzad is 16-7 with 3 wins by KO. “Banzai” was stopped in 3 of her 7 losses.
- Chiasson is 8-3 with 4 wins by finish. Macy was stopped in 2 of her 3 losses.
Analysis:
This fight is the rematch that nobody wanted or asked for between Pannie Kianzad and Macy Chiasson from their earlier fight in 2018 that Chiasson won by second round submission. This matchup is purely a striker vs. grappler matchup with Chiasson, the grappler, having a distinct size advantage with a four-inch height and a six-inch reach advantage. I see much of the same from their first matchup and anticipate Chiasson to bull Kianzad up against the fence to nullify her striking output and get some takedowns to either win a dominant decision or get the finish.
I bet on Chiasson and used her in a parlay.
Christian Rodriguez vs. Isaac Dulgarian
Notes:
- Rodriguez is 10-1 with 7 wins by finish.
- Dulgarian is 6-0 with all 6 wins by finish, including 4 by KO.
Analysis:
Christian Rodriguez is a tough and durable fighter who has played spoiler in his last two fights, derailing two previously undefeated fighters in Raul Rosas and Cameron Saaiman. Rodriguez is now forced to go up a weight class as he has missed weight several times and will receive a very stiff test right out of the gate vs. Isaac Dulgarian, who is 6-0 with all six wins by first round finish, including a very impressive 1st round KO in his UFC debut over Francis Marshall. Prior to his pro career, “The Midwest Choppa” was 4-0 in his amateur fights with four first round finishes. Overall, Dulgarian has never seen a second round. Rodriguez is skilled everywhere and uses a counter striking offense on the feet and has good wrestling and cardio. Dulgarian is a former D-1 wrestler and has a vicious ground and pound game. Although Rodriguez is tough, now up a weight class, I am going to pick Dulgarian to continue his rampage and win inside the distance. At a +140 number, it is too good to pass up until he gives us reason otherwise.
I bet Dulgarian to win inside the distance +140, risking 2 to win 2.8 units.
Ovince St. Preux vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
Notes:
- St. Preux is 26-17 with 20 wins by finish. “Durinho” was KO in 2 of his 6 losses.
- Nzechukwu is 12-4 with 9 wins by finish, including 8 by KO. “American Savage” was stopped in 3 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:
After a long and storied fight career, this could be the end of the line for Ovince St. Preux, now 40 years old and a loser of three of his last four fights. “OSP” has slowed down and shown vulnerability, as he was finished in his last three losses. Kennedy Nzechukwu is nine years younger, two inches taller, and will have a three-inch reach advantage vs. “OSP,” who generally holds the height and reach advantage in many of his matchups. Nzechukwu suffered a KO vs. Dustin Jacoby in his last fight, snapping a three-fight winning streak and he will look to rebound here in a big way vs. a very favorable opponent. Simply put, Nzechukwu should be better everywhere here and use volume to put it on St. Preux and most likely get the finish. After a loss, I fully expect “OSP” to take his gloves off and retire in the Octagon today.
I bet Nzechukwu and used him in a parlay.
Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa
Notes:
- Battle is 10-2 with 8 wins by finish. “The Butcher” was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.
- Loosa is 10-3 with 6 wins by finish, including 5 by KO.
Analysis:
This is a very good, well matched, co-main event between Bryan Battle and Ange Loosa. Battle has been scorching hot as of late, on a two-fight winning streak, and has won five of his six UFC fights. Loosa is on a two-fight winning streak after dropping his UFC debut and this matchup shapes up to be a fun, yet unpredictable, fight as I can make a case for each fighter to get their hand raised. Loosa is a high-paced striker with good wrestling and cardio and Battle has big KO power on the feet, but is hittable. Another knock on Battle is that he defends takedowns only at a 45% rate and that could be trouble here, but I have seen Battle improve every fight and I do not want to bet against him. Too tough to call, pass for me.
No Bet.
Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
Notes:
- Tuivasa is 14-6 with 13 wins by KO. “Bam Bam” was stopped in 5 of his 6 losses.
- Tybura is 24-8 with 15 wins by finish. “Tybur” was KO in 5 of his 8 losses.
Analysis:
A good ole heavyweight bout in the Main Event in the small cage should lead to fireworks between Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura. Tuivasa is on a three-fight losing streak, but those losses were to Alexander Volkov, Sergei Pavlovich, and Cyril Gane, making this matchup vs. Tybura a step down in recent competition. Tybura is 7-2 over his last nine fights, but is coming off a first round KO to Champion Tom Aspinall. Tuivasa is a one-dimensional striker with huge power and Tybura, although also having power, will most likely look to wrestle here where he should have an edge on the ground. I like this spot for Tuivasa to get back on track, most likely with an early KO. There is no added value in taking Tuivasa by KO at only +105 when the line is -110, which also gives you the decision and submission paths of victory (although unlikely).
I bet Tuivasa -110, risking 2.2 to win 2 units.
UFC Vegas 88 – Official Bets:
- 4:30: Moises, Davis, Nzechukwu parlay -133 (2.66 to win 2 units)
- 5:30: Culibao/Chiasson parlay +121 (2 to win 2.42 units)
- 6:00: Filho ITD +110 (2 to win 2.2 units)
- 7:30: Meerschaert by submission +120 (2 to win 2.4 units)
- 8:30: Dulgarian ITD +140 (2 to win 2.8 units)
- 10:00: Tuivasa -110 (2.2 to 2 units)
