Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:
Saturday’s UFC Sao Paulo event is now an 11-fight card with the prelims starting at 6:00PM followed by the Main Card at 9:00PM airing in its entirety on ESPN+. We have five total bets! Enjoy the UFC Sao Paulo – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)
Fight Breakdowns: Join @Conmann22 in Discord at 4pm EST
Betting Terms Key:
- ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
- Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
- Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”
Kaue Fernandes vs. Marc Diakiese
Notes:
- Fernandes has a record of 8-1 with 6 wins by finish. Kaue is making his UFC debut.
- Diakiese is 16-7 with 7 wins by finish including 6 KO. “Bonecrusher” was submitted in 3 of his 7 losses.
Analysis:
Marc Diakiese is on a two-fight losing streak and will open the UFC Sao Paulo card by welcoming Kaue Fernandes, who is making his UFC debut in the first fight of the night. Diakiese is 7-7 in his 14 UFC fights and is a solid kickboxer who fights at low volume, but has decent power. “Bonecrusher” is a good wrestler as well, averaging over three takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon and has used his wrestling strategically in his two wins prior to his current losing streak, racking up 19 takedowns in those two unanimous decision victories. Fernandes is a black belt in BJJ and has decent striking with powerful leg kicks. One glaring deficiency that I saw is that Kaue gassed out badly in his loss and conceded takedowns and looked very labored. I think the experience of Diakiese will be enough for him to pace himself here and mix in takedowns and get the win. I bet Diakiese and used him as a parlay piece.
Eduarda Moura vs. Montserrat Ruiz (women’s)
Notes:
- Moura is 9-0 with 8 wins by finish. “Ronda” is making her UFC debut.
- Ruiz is 10-3 with 5 wins by finish. “Conejo” was KO in 2 of her 3 losses.
Analysis:
Eduarda Moura is making her UFC debut here and she missed weight by three pounds. Already a huge betting favorite, the highly touted 9-0 undefeated prospect fighting in front of her home crowd may even have a bigger advantage if she didn’t have to suck out those last few pounds, which are always the toughest. “Ronda” has a massive six-inch height and a five-inch reach advantage vs. Ruiz, who is on a two-fight losing streak and is basically a one-trick pony with her limited skillset that features a seldom used “Scarf hold” takedown, which is akin to a playground headlock. Moura is a finisher, with eight of her nine wins, including seven in the first round, all coming by stoppage. This is a maul spot for Moura, who is also a teammate of headliner Jailton Almeida, and she received a VERY favorable matchup here. I bet Moura to win and used her as a parlay piece.
Angela Hill vs. Denise Gomes (women’s)
Notes:
- Hill is 15-13 with 5 wins by KO. “Overkill” was submitted in 2 of her 13 losses.
- Gomes is 8-2 with 6 wins by KO. Denise was KO in 1 of her 2 losses.
Analysis:
UFC lifer and all around tough out Angela “Overkill” Hill, at 38 years old, will take on Denise Gomes, who is riding a two-fight winning streak with both wins by KO. Hill is a Muay Thai style striker who has fought everyone in the division across her career and always proves to be a tough out. This is a tough matchup for each fighter and a “draw a line in the sand” type of showdown, where either Gomes needs to put Hill away and ascend in the division or Hill will turn her away and prove to be the ultimate gatekeeper with some pop left in her for additional fights. Gomes has good power, but is not much of a wrestler, which is typically needed to slow down Hill, who is a volume striker. Denise has slowed down in past fights and Hill will keep coming. I anticipate Hill to avoid the big power early from Gomes and take over as the fight goes on and wins a decision. I like Hill here as an underdog. I bet Hill +120, risking 1 to win 1.2 units.
Vitor Petrino vs. Modestas Bukauskas
Notes:
- Petrino is 9-0 with 7 wins by finish, including 6 wins by KO.
- Bukauskas 15-5 with 11 wins by finish, including 9 by KO. “The Baltic Gladiator” was stopped in 4 of his 5 losses.
Analysis:
Vitor Petrino is a terror who can wrestle and knock you out and has seven of his nine wins by finish. Modestas Bukauskas is a bit of a journeyman fighter who was released from the UFC after going 1-3 and then after a couple of wins on the regional scene, was brought back as a late notice replacement and has looked decent, going 2-0 with both wins via unanimous decision. I think the fun comes to a halt here for “The Baltic Gladiator,” as he now has to fight Petrino in front of a rabid Brazilian crowd. Petrino has big power, good wrestling , and good control when he grounds his opponents. I like Petrino in every aspect of this fight and think that he has Bukauskas, who is a low-volume striker with below average takedown defense, covered everywhere. Gimme all the Petrino! I bet Petrino and used him as a parlay piece.
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov
Notes:
- Dos Santos is 24-7 with 17 wins by finish. “Capoeira” was stopped in 3 of his 7 losses.
- Fakhretdinov is 21-1 with 17 wins by finish.
Analysis:
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos is on a two-fight winning streak and is 10-3 in his 13 UFC fights. Fakhretdinov is 3-0 in his UFC career thus far and is on an overall 20-fight winning streak with 17 of his 21 wins by finish. Dos Santos has big power in his capoeira style striking attack, but lacks in the wrestling and grappling departments, which will be a huge problem in this matchup. Fakhretdinov has good power in his strikes and excels in the grappling department and uses a smothering style of wrestling, averaging almost six takedowns per 15 minutes of UFC Octagon time. Once he downs his opponents, Rinat has excellent control. I like Fakhretdinov to wrestle early and often and either win a dominant decision or perhaps get the finish. I bet Fakhretdinov and used him as a parlay piece.
Elves Brener vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky
Notes:
- Brener is 15-3 with 13 wins by finish, including 11 by submission.
- Kruschewsky is 15-2 with 13 wins by finish. “Bahia” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:
Kaynan Kruschewsky is making his UFC debut on four days’ notice and will be facing Elves Brener, who is 2-0 with one finish thus far in the UFC. Brener is a strong grappler with 11 of his 15 wins by submission and has shown that he can throw down and slugged it out with both of his UFC opponents. Kruschewsky is a kill or be killed fighter, with 14 of his 15 wins coming by finish and one of his two losses by KO. Brener had a full camp and most likely has the cardio edge, along with the UFC experience, leading to what will most likely be a convincing victory. I like Brener here to be the more well-rounded fighter and get it done. I bet Brener and used him as a parlay piece.
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan
Notes:
- Vieira is 9-2 with all 9 wins by finish, including 8 by submission. “The Black Belt Hunter” was submitted in 1 of his 2 losses.
- Petrosyan is 9-2 with 6 wins by KO. “Superman” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:
This is a striker vs. grappler matchup with Viera, the grappler, having eight of his nine wins by submission, vs. Petrosyan, the striker, who has six of his nine wins by KO. Viera is not only a grappler, he is a world-class grappler and one of the best in the world. ”The Black Belt Hunter” lacks in the wrestling department and has shown a questionable gas tank. Petrosyan has very powerful kicks and although not a strong defensive wrestler, he has very good athleticism to get back to his feet where he can use his top tier kickboxing. Each fighter has a massive edge over the other in their respective areas, but I favor Petrosyan to be able to use his movement and striking to keep the fight standing, and if taken down, to get back up. Very tough fight to predict as Viera can get a submission or win with control time. I lean Petrosyan, but No Bet.
Caio Borralho vs. Abusupiyan Magomedov
Notes:
- Borralho is 14-1 with 8 wins by finish.
- Magomedov is 22-5-1 with 20 wins by finish, including 14 by KO. “Abus” was stopped in 4 of his 5 losses.
Analysis:
Caio Borralho is 4-0 in the UFC and is a very well-rounded fighter. “The Natural” is a powerful kickboxer with a good fight IQ who uses his range well. Magomedov is a powerful striker with below average takedown and submission defense, who has shown to fade if fights go long. Borralho will have his biggest advantage on the ground, and he should look to wrestle early and often and use his excellent back control and overall Jiu Jitsu to win minutes or get the submission. I bet Borralho and used him as a parlay piece.
Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes
Notes:
- Nascimento is 10-1 with 8 wins by finish, including 6 by submission. “Yogi Bear” was KO in his only loss.
- Mayes is 10-5 with 7 wins by finish, including 6 by KO. “Lord Kong” was stopped in 3 of his 5 losses.
Analysis:
This is the rematch that no one asked for or wanted to see that Nascimento won in his UFC debut via rear naked choke in May of 2020. Mayes is a southpaw power puncher with six of his 10 wins by KO. “Lord Kong” has shown the ability to wrestle a bit, but that would not be wise in this matchup vs. Nascimento, who is a black belt in BJJ and has six of his 10 wins by submission, including vs. Mayes as mentioned. “Yogi Bear” is an average striker at best, but should be able to repeat his earlier performance vs. Mayes where he outstruck him in volume and outwrestled him with two takedowns to zero prior to locking up the submission in the second round. I bet Nascimento and used him as a parlay piece.
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicholas Dalby
Notes:
- Bonfim is 15-0 with all 15 wins by finish, including 12 by submission.
- Dalby is 22-4-1 with 10 wins by finish.
Analysis:
Gabriel Bonfim is at the top of my list of fighters that are future Champions in their division, and at 15-0 with all 15 wins by finish, it is pretty hard to argue with me about that. Nicholas Dalby is a very tough fighter at 22-4 and has never been finished, which is an interesting contrast to the 100% finishing rate of Bonfim. “Danish Dynamite” is now 39 years old and on a three-fight winning streak and has good cardio and durability, although he is very hittable and has been rocked in multiple fights. Dalby is a low-volume fighter, which will favor Bonfim, as he has shown to slow down a bit later in fights if extended. Bonfim is a beast of a grappler and I think that he will be able to hang with, or perhaps even hurt, Dalby on the feet and once the fight hits the ground, he will show the Danish fighter that there are levels to this game. I bet Bonfim and used him as a parlay piece.
Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis
Notes:
- Almeida is 19-2 with all 19 wins by finish, including 12 by submission. “Malhadinho” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
- Lewis is 27-11 with 23 wins by finish, including 22 by KO. “The Black Beast” was stopped in 9 of his 11 losses.
Analysis:
This Main Event has VIOLENCE written all over it! So much so that the inside the distance line is the highest that I have ever seen at -10,000!!! “The Black Beast” Derrick Lewis is one of the most prolific KO artists in UFC history and has 22 of his 27 wins by KO. On the flip side, Lewis has been finished in nine of his 11 losses. Jailton Almeida is a scary dude! “Malhadinho” is 19-2 with all 19 wins by finish, including 12 by submission, which should be his path here in this fight. Almeida is an explosive heavyweight with BIG KO power and is even better in the grappling department, averaging almost seven takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, and once he grounds his opponent, he unmercifully batters him until he gets the TKO or the submission. Astonishingly, Almeida has only had two punches by his opponents that landed on him in five fights! Pretty remarkable when you think about it! Unless Lewis lands a “Hail Mary” miracle punch, he will find himself on his back and a recipient of the above mentioned hell being wrought down by Almeida. I love Almeida here to win, get the finish, and continue his claim towards heavyweight gold. I bet Almeida and used him as a parlay piece.
Conmann’s UFC Sao Paulo – Official Bets:
- 6:00: Diakiese/Brener parlay +121 (1 to win 1.21 units)
- 6:30: Moura/Bonfim/Almeida ITD parlay -156 (7.8 to win 5 units)
- 7:00: Hill +120 (1 to win 1.2 units)
- 7:30: Petrino/Fakhretdinov parlay -122 (3.66 to win 3 units)
- 9:30: Borralho/Nascimento parlay +104 (3 to win 3.12 units)
