Conmann’s 10/7/23 UFC Vegas 80 Betting Blueprint

Conmann's Dawson v. Green Betting/DFS Blueprint

Today’s UFC Vegas 80 event is an 11-fight card starting at 4:00PM and airing in its entirety on ESPN+. Very light betting card today. We have six total bets! Enjoy the UFC Vegas 80 – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)

Betting Terms Key:

  • ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
  • Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
  • Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”

Montana De La Rosa vs. JJ Aldrich (women’s)

Notes:
  • De La Rosa has a record of 12-8-1. Montana was stopped in 3 of her 8 losses.
  • Aldrich is 12-6 with 3 wins by KO. JJ was stopped in 3 of her 6 losses.
Analysis:

We start things off with a women’s fight between Montana De La Rosa, who is on a two-fight losing streak, vs. JJ Aldrich, who lost two of her last three. De La Rosa is a grappler who looks to take the fight to the ground early and often, as she lacks in her striking, offering very little volume and power. Aldrich is a southpaw boxer with average takedown defense and very little power. I expect De La Rosa, who will have a small size advantage with a two-inch height and a one-inch edge in reach, to rack up a couple of takedowns and use control time to ultimately get a decision victory. Aldrich has been caught a couple times in submissions and the sub will be a possibility here as well for Montana. I bet De La Rosa -146, risking 1.46 to win 1 unit.

Nathan Maness vs. Mateus Mendoca

Notes:
  • Maness is 14-3 with 8 wins by finish. “Mayhem” was stopped in 2 of his 3 losses.
  • Mendoca is 10-1 with 7 wins by finish.
Analysis:

Nathan Maness dropped his last two fights and will be facing Mateus Mendoca, who dropped his UFC debut vs. Javid Basharat, which was his first career loss. Maness is a low volume striker with decent takedown defense, however, once he finds himself on the ground, specifically on his back, he struggles with getting back to his feet. Mendoca is very well-rounded with a Muay Thai striking style and is a black belt in BJJ. “Bocao” is a training partner of Charles Oliveira and has that Chute Boxe style that most fighters from that team possess. Maness will have a four-inch height and a one-inch reach advantage, which could act as a detriment vs. Mendoca, who likes to fight at range, utilizing his powerful strikes, which include hard kicks to his opponent’s legs. I favor Mendoca to have the advantage in striking and on the ground. I bet Mendoca and used him as a parlay piece.

Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Kanako Murata (women’s)

Notes:
  • Demopoulos is 9-5 with 5 wins by finish. 
  • Murata is 12-2 with 6 wins by finish. Kanako was stopped in both losses.
Analysis:

Kanako Murata is returning to the Octagon after a 2.5-year layoff, due to a gruesome arm injury suffered in her last fight vs. Virna Jandiroba in 2021. She will be facing Vanessa Demopoulos, who dropped her last fight. Demopoulos is a grappler who is too comfortable off her back and lacks the wrestling to consistently get the fight to the ground where she wants it. Murata is a strong wrestler and will have the edge in that department in addition to being a very strong physical fighter, which could give Demopoulos fits. I anticipate Murata to get multiple takedowns and use top control to get the victory. I like Murata to win, but not at a near -400 price tag. Pass, No Bet.

Qileng Aori vs. Johnny Munoz

Notes:
  • Aori is 24-10 with 9 wins by finish. “Mongolian Murderer” was stopped in 3 of his 10 losses.
  • Munoz is 12-3 with 9 wins by finish. “Kid Kvenbo” was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:

Both fighters enter here off a loss, and both are 2-3 their last five fights. Munoz is a black belt in BJJ and has decent striking with very good leg kicks. Aori is a one-dimensional boxing style striker, who has good pressure and pace on the feet, but is very hittable with subpar striking defense. Both fighters are lacking in the wrestling game, so it will be interesting to see which fighter can dictate where the fight takes place. The fight is tightly lined at near pick ’em, and it is anybody’s guess on the winner. Too tight to call. Pass, No Bet.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbita (women’s)

Notes:
  • Kowalkiewicz is 15-7 with 4 wins by finish. Karolina was stopped in 3 of her 7 losses. 
  • Belbita is 15-7 with 10 wins by finish. “Warrior Princess” was submitted in 4 of her 7 losses.
Analysis:

Karolina Kowalkiewicz is quietly on a three-fight winning streak at 37 years of age, and will be facing Diana Belbita, who is 10 years younger and will also have a four-inch height and reach advantage. Kowalkiewicz is predominantly a high-volume striker with decent, but rarely used, grappling. Belbita is also a high-volume striker, which should lead to a fun, standup affair. This is another high variance fight with too many variables for me to confidently make a bet on. I lean Kowalkiewicz, but I do not want to lay the -170 price tag on her. Pass, No Bet.

Alexander Hernandez vs. Bill Algeo

Notes:
  • Hernandez is 14-6 with 8 wins by finish. “The Great Ape” was stopped in 4 of his 6 losses.
  • Algeo is 17-7 with 11 wins by finish. “Senor Perfecto” was submitted in 2 of his 7 losses.

Analysis:

Alexander Hernandez is dropping down to 145 lbs. to face Algeo after a unanimous decision victory over Jim Miller in the 155-lb. weight class in his previous fight. Algeo is a high volume striker, in addition to being a good submission grappler holding a black belt in BJJ. Hernandez has good power in his strikes and has good wrestling, although underused. This is a tough fight matchup-wise for both fighters. Hernandez will have the edge in power and Algeo will have a higher output. I would lean Hernandez matchup-wise, but I do not like the way that he has looked previously when fighting in this weight class. Tough fight to confidently call. Pass, No Bet.

Philipe Lins vs. Ion Cutelaba

Notes:
  • Lins is 17-5 with 13 wins by finish. “Monstro” was KO in 4 of his 5 losses.
  • Cutelaba is 17-9-1 with 15 wins by finish, including 13 by KO. “The Hulk” was stopped in 7 of his 9 losses.
Analysis:

Philipe Lins is on a three-fight winning streak and has looked good as of late after a lackluster start to his UFC career. Ion Cutelaba is a kill or be killed fighter who is very dangerous, especially early in fights, and is coming off a first round KO after dropping his three prior fights. Lins is a big man and will have a one-inch height and a three-inch reach advantage in this matchup and I think he will be able to withstand the initial onslaught of Cutelaba, who fades if he is unable to get a quick finish. Both fighters have durability issues and have been stopped in a combined 11 of their 14 losses. Lins has 100% takedown defense and is a low volume striker, favoring him to reserve his gas tank vs. the wild Cutelaba. I like Lins at an underdog price and will gladly take a shot on him at +125. I bet Lins +125, risking 1 to win 1.25 units.

Drew Dober vs. Ricky Glenn

Notes:
  • Dober is 26-12 with 19 wins by finish. Drew was stopped in 6 of his 12 losses.
  • Glenn is 22-7-2 with 16 wins by finish. “The Gladiator” was stopped in 3 of his 7 losses.
Analysis:

Ricky Glenn returned to action in April after a two-year layoff and was promptly knocked out by Christos Giagos in the first round and now must face the very powerful Drew Dober. Dober has BIG power and has KO victories in his last six wins. Glenn is also a powerful striker, with 13 of his 22 wins by knockout, but has shown poor durability once he gets rocked. Both fighters are now 34 years old with big power and waning durability, leading me to favor this fight to not see the judges’ scorecards. I like Dober to finish Glenn and the price on the fight to end inside the distance is cheaper than betting on Dober to win straight up. I like violence here. I bet fight to end inside the distance and used it as a parlay piece and also used Dober in a separate parlay as well.

Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley

Notes:
  • Morono is 23-8 with 13 wins by finish. “The Great White” was KO in 3 of his 8 losses.
  • Buckley is 16-6 with 12 wins by KO. “New Mansa” was KO in 4 of his 6 losses.
Analysis:

Joaquin Buckley is an athletic, powerful striker, with big power, as shown by his 12 KO victories in his 16 career wins. Alex Morono is a very well-rounded fighter who offers high-volume striking, which includes good leg kicks and movement, and is good on the ground and should have the grappling edge. Both fighters have shown durability issues and have been knocked out a combined seven times in their losses and both fighters have never been submitted. All roads lead to a striking affair where Buckley will hold the power edge and Morono the volume. I think that the four-inch reach advantage will help Buckley, who is also five years younger than “The Great White,” stay a step ahead and get the win. I like Buckley here. I bet Buckley and used him as a parlay piece.

Joseph Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan

Notes:
  • Pyfer is 11-2 with 10 wins by finish. “BodyBagz” was stopped in both losses. 
  • Alhassan is 12-5 with all 12 wins by KO. “Judo Thunder” was KO in 1 of his 5 losses.
Analysis:

This is a fun matchup between two very explosive and powerful fighters in Joseph Pyfer and Abdul Razak Alhassan! Pyfer was the star of Contender Series last year and has since gone 2-0 with two first round KO’s to start his UFC career. Alhassan packs huge power as well, and has all 12 of his wins by KO. “Judo Thunder” is just that, sporting a high-level Judo background in addition to his big power, which makes a tough fight for his opponents. A knock on Alhassan is his gas tank, as he slows down immediately as the fight goes long. Pyfer is 11 years younger, four inches taller, and has a two-inch reach advantage in this matchup and has a better gas tank. I like Pyfer to win here and think it is by KO. I will gladly take the huge discount of “BodyBagz” to win by KO -130, as opposed to the money line at -400. I bet Pyfer to win by KO -130, risking 1.3 to win 1 unit.

Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green

Notes:
  • Dawson is 20-1-1 with 17 wins by finish, including 13 by submission. “KGD” was KO in his only loss.
  • Green is 30-14-1 with 19 wins by finish. “King” was stopped in 6 of his 14 losses.
Analysis:

The Main Event! I will start by saying that I believe this fight will be a washout and Grant Dawson, who is a big favorite at -500, will win handily. I like Bobby Green, but this is a bad matchup for him vs. Dawson, who has not lost since 2016, which was his only career loss, nonetheless. “KGD” is 8-0-1 in his UFC career and has finished five of his opponents. Bobby Green has been sputtering of late after getting a HUGE bag to fight Islam Makhachev on late notice last February. “King” won his last fight vs. the ghost of Tony Ferguson, and before that, he was knocked out by Drew Dober and Islam with a no contest vs. Jared Gordon as well. Green is a very good boxer with high volume striking and good takedown defense, which will surely be tested here vs. Dawson, who averages just under four takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon. This fight will be interesting at times since Green will have such an edge in the striking, as Dawson lacks there, but his ground game is so good that once he takes Green down, he will keep him there for the remainder of the round, as he also aggressively hunts for submissions. With this fight being 25 minutes, I favor Dawson to get the victory. I like Dawson, but not at the -500 price tag. I will pass, No Bet.

Conmann’s UFC Vegas 80 – Official Bets:

  • 4:00: De La Rosa -146 (1.46 to win 1 unit)
  • 5:30: Mendoca/Pyfer/Dawson parlay +118 (3 to win 3.54 units)
  • 6:30: Lins +125 (1 to win 1.25 units)
  • 7:30: Buckley & Dober/Glenn fight ITD -116 (1.16 to win 1 unit)
  • 8:30: Pyfer via KO -130 (1.3 to win 1 unit)

Continue Reading: Conmann’s UFC Vegas 80 DraftKings Plays

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