ABER’s 8/8/23 MLB Breakdown

ABER's MLB Daily Fantasy Plays

What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle! 

Chalk Stack Of The Day

Boston Red Sox vs. Brady Singer (RH)
I am out on the Red Sox chalk tonight against Singer. Not only has Singer been extremely good lately, he’s also reverse splits. Generally when you’re playing into the Red Sox, it’s the lefties you want and against Singer you’re content with lefties if going this route but ideally you want the righties. If you’re playing into the chalk tonight Adam Duvall is at the top of the list for me.

Top Stacks Of The Day

Chicago Cubs vs. Carlos Carrasco (RH)
The Cubs continue to be chalky once again tonight, but I’m fine with getting into it with the Red Sox fade. Since the beginning of July, they had the throne for the best offense in the split, but the Doyers have surpassed them. Carrasco is really bad and isn’t missing any bats. My favorites in order are Christopher Morel, Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ, and Dansby Swanson.

Atlanta Braves vs. Mitch Keller (RH)
Given where I’m going at pitcher tonight, I’m going to be able to stack up some expensive stacks, and of course, the Braves are at the top of that list for me. Keller has been really bad over the last month and it’s not going to get any better tonight. As usual with the Braves, I’m fine with stacking up 1-9 in anyway you can make them fit, but the lefties would be the priorities.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RH)
As I stated, I will not need the savings on offense tonight, so I’m loading up on bats and the Dodgers are on red alert tonight against Pfaadt, who has been really bad for the entire year. His HR/9 is nearing three, and, as I stated above, the Dodgers are the #1 offense in the split since July 1st. My favorite plays in order are Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, and JD Martinez.

Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day

Max Scherzer (RH) vs. Oakland Athletics
Amongst the top, it’s either Framber or Scherzer. Framber is by far the more efficient pitcher, but the matchup is significantly better for Max and you get a minor discount. This is not my preferred spot to spend because the pitchers below are in incredible spots for much less.

Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day

Wade Miley (LH) vs. Colorado Rockies
Wade Miley is not someone I ever get too excited to roster, but this spot is too sexy to resist. Since the beginning of July, the Rockies have a league leading 29.6% K rate in the split. He’s not super talented, but he can exploit good matchups and this is one of them. He is my preferred SP1 on DraftKings and one of my favorite plays on FanDuel.

Top Value Pitcher Of The Day

Touki Toussaint (RH) vs. New York Yankees
Ladies and gentlemen, it is National Touki Day. I’m not sure you can not ask for a better spot for him in the league and what makes this spot so special is the seven right handed bats the Yankees will have in the lineup. Touki has been exceptional this year against both sides of the plate, but he’s been absurd against right handed hitting with a .288 woba, 33.3% K rate, 3.69 fip, 2.92 xfip, 67.6% ground ball rate, and a 21.6% fly ball rate. We talk all the time about how elite it is when guys induce over 50% ground balls, but they usually lack the strikeout upside to be viable in tournaments, which is why we tend to use that data to fade bats as opposed to playing pitchers. Touki is the total package tonight and the price tag is an absolute joke when you have ace-like numbers. We won’t even talk about how he’s going to be unowned.

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