Conmann’s UFC Betting Blueprint Intro:
Today’s UFC Mexico event is a 13-fight card starting at 7:00PM with the entire card airing on ESPN+. We have five bets! Enjoy the UFC Mexico – Betting Blueprint, and as always, “Let’s get to the bag!” – Mike Constantino (Conmann22)
Fight Breakdowns: Join @Conmann22 in Discord voice chat at 4pm EST
Betting Terms Key:
- ITD means “Inside the Distance.” This is a bet meaning that the fight will be ended and not go to the judges’ scorecards. We use the ITD bet in two ways: “Fight ITD” means either fighter to win “Inside the Distance.” If you see a fighter’s name only, and not both fighters’ names, for example, “Jones ITD” means to bet “Jones Inside the Distance,” which means that we are only betting on one fighter to win by finish.
- Some sportsbooks label the “Fighter ITD” bet as a “Double Chance.” In this case, select the fighter who we have “ITD.” As example: “Jones ITD” or, said another way, “Jones to win by Submission/KO/TKO/(DQ).”
- Some books offer the “Fight ITD” bet as “Will the fight go the distance?” In this instance, select “NO” if we are betting the “Fight ITD.”
Erik Silva vs. Muhammadjon Naimov
Notes:
- Silva is 9-2 with 7 wins by finish. “The King” was submitted in both of his losses.
- Naimov is 10-2 with 7 wins by finish.
Analysis:
Erik Silva, now 36 years old, was stopped in his UFC debut by TJ Brown via submission and now returns after a 14-month layoff. Muhammadjon Naimov made his UFC debut on late notice, up a weight class, winning by second round KO and then followed that up with another win against Nathaniel Wood. Naimov is seven years younger than “The King” and is now riding a five-fight winning streak with three wins by finish. Silva has good power in his punches and thudding leg kicks to compliment his solid grappling game, but historically does not have good cardio, which will be a huge problem with the elevation here in Mexico City. I have been on Naimov since his UFC debut, and I am 2-0 on betting on him thus far. I like the toughness that I have seen from him in the UFC thus far. I expect a back and forth first round and then for Naimov to take over as the fight goes long and possibly get a finish.
I bet Naimov and used him in a parlay.
Victor Altamirano vs. Felipe dos Santos
Notes:
- Altamirano is 12-3 with 6 wins by finish. “El Magnifico” was submitted in 1 of his 3 losses.
- dos Santos is 7-1 with 5 wins by finish.
Analysis:
Felipe dos Santos lost an unanimous decision to a very tough, Manel Kape, in his UFC debut, which was a late notice fight. Dos Santos showed crazy volume with over 300 strikes in the 15 minute fight. Victor Altamirano is 2-2 in his four UFC fights and will be the overall more well-rounded fighter in this matchup, as he will have the wrestling edge. Dos Santos is one of many Chute Boxe fighters on this card and fights with good pressure and does a good job punching and kicking with both sides. Altamirano is a wild fighter with good output, which should make this fight very exciting. “El Magnifico” having the wrestling edge will be the difference maker if he is able to sustain control on the ground and not allow dos Santos to get up to his feet consistently, which would be the area that Felipe can take over with his cardio dragging the fight into the later rounds. I lean Altamirano, and at +240 in a fight that I think can go either way, is terrific value.
I bet Altamirano +240, risking 1 to win 2.4 units.
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Denys Bondar
Notes:
- Rodriguez is 16-2 with 11 wins by finish. “Lazy Boy” is making his UFC debut.
- Bondar is 14-4 with all 14 wins by finish. “Psycho” was topped in 2 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:
Ronaldo Rodriguez is making his UFC debut after a 5-0 run on the regional scene after losing on the Contender Series to Jerome Rivera in 2020. Denys Bondar is 0-2 in the UFC with his first fight ending by gruesome arm break. “Psycho” is a kill or be killed fighter with all 14 wins by finish. Rodriguez is seven years younger, but will be at a four-inch reach disadvantage. Bondar is an aggressive fighter with powerful strikes and a good grappling game, but is very sloppy all around. Rodriguez also has power in his strikes, including good leg kicks, but offers low volume. “Lazy Boy” has a decent grappling arsenal and will be debuting in front of his home crowd. This is a tough fight to predict the winner on, as there are so many unknowns on each side here, and with the line even at a pick ’em, this leads to a pass.
No Bet.
Claudio Puelles vs. Fares Ziam
Notes:
- Puelles is 12-3 with 9 wins by finish, including 7 by submission. “Prince of Peru” was KO in 2 of his 3 losses.
- Ziam is 14-4 with 9 wins by finish. “Smile Killer” was submitted in 3 of his 4 losses.
Analysis:
Claudio Puelles and Fares Ziam combine for a 9-4 UFC record with this matchup a striker vs. grappler affair. Puelles is an aggressive submission artist, who has very dangerous leg locks, and Ziam is a technical striker with a good jab and leg kicks, but offers very low output. Puelles, although a very good submission artist, lacks in the wrestling department and uses leg kicks to set up his range for takedowns. When “Prince of Peru” can’t find the takedown, he looks frustrated on the feet and loses most striking exchanges. This fight comes down to wrestling, and with Ziam holding a three-inch height and reach advantage with a 75% takedown defense, I favor him to be able to keep this fight standing and get the victory.
I bet Ziam and used him in a parlay.
Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel da Silva
Notes:
- Chairez is10-5 with all 10 wins by finish. “Puro Chicali” was submitted in 2 of his 5 losses.
- da Silva is 11-5 with all 11 wins by finish. “Miojo” was stopped in all 5 losses.
Analysis:
This fight is a rematch from their original matchup five months ago in September, which resulted in a no contest after a premature referee stoppage. Chairez had da Silva on the brink of submission when the referee waved it off and he would most likely have put da Silva to sleep without the intervention. Daniel da Silva may be the first fighter to start his UFC career 0-4 with four losses by finish and get a chance for a fifth fight. In addition, “Miojo” has never seen a third round in his entire career, as all 16 of his fights have ended in the first or second round. Edgar “Pitbull” Chairez also has a 100% finishing rate in all of his 10 wins, however, he is much more durable and has never been knocked out. Da Silva is very dangerous for the first round and then if he does not get the finish, he wilts and gets finished. A prototypical kill or be killed fighter. I liked and bet on Chairez the first time around and will do so again here.
I bet Chairez to win ITD using him in a parlay, and I will also bet this fight to NOT start round 3, also using it in a parlay.
Jesus Santos Aguilar vs. Mateus Mendonca
Notes:
- Aguilar is 9-2 with 7 wins by finish, including 6 by submission. Jesus was submitted in both of his losses.
- Mendonca is 10-2 with 7 wins by finish. “Bocao” was KO in 1 of his 2 losses.
Analysis:
Mateus Mendonca is 0-2 in his UFC fights and Jesus Santos Aguilar 1-1 in his two UFC fights. Both fighters were thrown to the wolves in their respective debuts, with Aguilar being submitted by 15-0, undefeated Tatsuro Taira in the first round, and Mendonca losing to undefeated, 14-0 Javid Basharat. Aguilar bounced back with an impressive first round KO in his last fight and Mendonca suffered another loss by finish, getting KO in the first round. Aguilar has power in his strikes, but his specialty is his grappling, specifically his guillotine choke, which he has used to win in five of his six submission wins. Mendonca will have a two-inch height and a huge nine-inch reach advantage and will look to use his length to employ his Muay Thai striking style and stay on the outside and pick apart the diminutive Aguilar. Aguilar is always live for a submission, and with Mendonca having shown poor fight IQ and below average cardio, I would not be surprised to see an Aguilar finish. Mendonca is most dangerous early, and I think that this fight ends inside the distance, but not with enough confidence to bet it.
No Bet.
Cristian Quinonez vs. Raoni Barcelos
Notes:
- Quinonez is 18-4 with 13 wins by finish, including 10 by KO. “El Nino Problema” was stopped in all 4 of his losses.
- Barcelos is 17-5 with 10 wins by finish. Raoni was stopped in 2 of his 5 losses.
Analysis:
On paper, Raoni Barcelos has all of the tools that you would want in a fighter, a technical, volume based striker with good power, a champion wrestler, and a black belt in BJJ, but he is now 37 years old and 1-4 his last five fights. Cristian Quinonez is 1-1 in his two UFC fights and is 10 years younger than Barcelos. “El Nino Problema” is also a good, volume based striker with power, but he fights very recklessly as shown in his last fight, a first round submission in which he was dropped prior to being submitted. Although 1-4 his last five, Barcelos has lost to good fighters, and I am not so certain that he is washed yet. I expect violence in this spot, but can’t trust Quinonez due to his recklessness, and I am uneasy about putting my money on the aging Barcelos, leading to a pass.
No Bet.
Manuel Torres vs. Chris Duncan
Notes:
- Torres is 14-2 with 13 wins by finish. “El Loco” was submitted in both of his losses.
- Duncan is 11-1 with 8 wins by finish, including 7 by KO. “The Problem” was KO in his only loss.
Analysis:
Manuel Torres has proved to be a terror, going 2-0 with two first round KO wins in the UFC, and in fact, 15 of “El Loco’s” 16 career fights have ended in the first round! Chris Duncan is 2-0 in his two UFC fights with both wins by decision. Torres has huge power and uses leg kicks to set up his power punches. Duncan has an awkward and stiff looking style, which could spell doom here, as he does not have good head movement when entering and exiting the pocket with his strikes. With a brawling style and his plodding movement, I think “The Problem” is going to have a problem staying awake. I like Torres here to keep his KO streak going and finish Duncan.
I bet Torres to win by KO/TKO +115, risking 2 to win 2.3 units.
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Sam Hughes (women’s)
Notes:
- Jauregui is 10-1 with 7 wins by KO. Yazmin was KO in her only loss.
- Hughes is 8-5 with 5 wins by finish. “Sampage” was stopped in 2 of her 5 losses.
Analysis:
Yazmin Jauregui is the biggest favorite on this card, and I think it is a get right spot for her, as she will be fighting in front of her home crowd vs. a middling fighter. Yazmin suffered her first career loss in her last fight via KO in only 20 seconds vs. Denise Gomes and this sets up perfectly for her to rebound vs. Hughes. “Sampage” is 3-4 in her seven UFC fights, and although gritty, I do not think that she has the power to hurt Jauregui, nor the wrestling offense or defense to stop her grappling game. Jauregui has big power and fights at a good pace, and with her seven-years-younger age advantage, I think she is still improving, whereas we know what Hughes is at this point in her career. The number is big, so the only way to use Jauregui would be as a parlay sweetener if it improves the odds for one of your bets.
I bet Jauregui and used her in a parlay.
Raul Rosas vs. Ricky Turcios
Notes:
- Rosas is 8-1 with 7 wins by finish, including 5 by submission.
- Turcios is 12-3 with 4 wins by finish. “Pretty” was KO in 1 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:
This is a trappy fight with the still 19 years young Rosas vs. the former Ultimate Fighter winner, Ricky Turcios. Rosas is 2-1 in the UFC, but his one loss was in a fight where he started to gas after he could not find an early submission. Turcios is a BJJ black belt and fights at a very high pace and will be in your face for the full 15 minutes of a fight. Rosas is always live for a submission, but I see this as a tough fight vs. Turcios, who will have the better cardio. I see this fight only playing out two ways, either Rosas gets an early submission or Turcios hangs in there and wins a decision. One area of note is that Turcios has poor takedown defense at only 45%, so Rosas should get his opportunity early. I don’t have enough confidence to play either side here and will gain my exposure through my DFS lineups.
No Bet.
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Francisco Prado
Notes:
- Zellhuber is 14-1 with 10 wins by finish, including 7 by KO.
- Prado is 12-1 with all 12 wins by finish.
Analysis:
This will be an exciting fight between two finishers in Daniel Zellhuber and Francisco Prado, who combine for 22 of their 26 wins by stoppage. Zellhuber lost his UFC debut and then rattled off two wins and Prado won by KO in his last UFC fight after dropping his debut. Zellhuber will have a three-inch height and eight-inch reach advantage, which will suit him stylistically here in this matchup as he will want to stay long vs. the powerful Prado and keep him at range. Prado is an aggressive fighter who constantly pressures moving forward, which opens himself up to be taken down, as could Zellhuber by stronger wrestlers. I expect Zellhuber to use his length and employ his Muay Thai striking style to technically pick apart Prado and avoid the big KO. I lean Zellhuber, but do not want to lay -300 vs. the big power capabilities of Prado as I have seen Zellhuber be hittable in past fights.
No Bet.
Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega
Notes:
- Rodriguez is 19-4 with 13 wins by finish. “El Pantera” was KO in 3 of his 4 losses.
- Ortega is 15-3 with 10 wins by finish. “T-City” was KO in 2 of his 3 losses.
Analysis:
This fight is a rematch from their initial fight from July of 2022, which ended prematurely in the first round due to an Ortega injury, which resulted in a TKO victory for Rodriguez. Since that fight, Rodriguez has gone 1-1 and this is the first fight for “T-City” after taking off for 19 months. Both fighters are of proud Mexican decent and promise to bring their historical tough pedigree to put on a show in front of this Mexican crowd. Other than the TKO loss to Yair, Ortega has only lost to the two best Lightweights in the world, current Champion Alexander Volkanovski and former Champion Max Holloway. Rodriguez is slightly younger and has a three-inch height and a two-inch reach advantage and fights tall, utilizing his height and length. An interesting note to watch is will Rodriguez limit his kicks due to the fear of Ortega catching a kick and taking the fight to the floor, where “T-City” is world-class with his Jiu Jitsu and will hold an edge. Rodriguez is very vulnerable to takedowns as it is. Ortega has very creative methods to get the fight to ground and has jumped guillotine many times. Rodriguez must utilize his reach, use constant movement, switch stances, and limit his kicks. This is a very tough fight to call with so many variables since last meeting.
No Bet.
Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval
Notes:
- Moreno is 21-7-2 with 16 wins by finish, including 11 by submission.
- Royval is 15-7 with 13 wins by finish. “Raw Dawg” was stopped in 2 of his 7 losses.
Analysis:
This Main Event is a rematch from an earlier fight in 2020, in which Moreno won by first round KO. After that fight, Moreno went on to win the belt and became Champion and Royval has gone 3-2, including losing his last time out via unanimous decision to current Champion, Alexandre Pantoja. “Raw Dawg” is a whirlwind of a fighter with solid striking, scrambling, and submissions and Moreno is solid everywhere with good striking, wrestling, and a black belt in BJJ. Fighting as the Main Event in front of his home crowd is a huge advantage for the former Champion, Moreno, and I think he coasts to victory. Moreno will have a big wrestling edge and I think he mixes up all of his skills to earn the dominant victory.
I bet Moreno and used him in a parlay.
UFC Mexico – Official Bets:
- 7:00: Naimov, Chairez/Lacerda fight to NOT start Round 3, Jauregui parlay -123 (3.69 to win 3 units)
- 7:00: Naimov/Ziam/Torres parlay +180 (1 to win 1.8 units)
- 7:30: Altamirano +240 (1 to win 2.4 units)
- 8:30: Chairez ITD/Moreno parlay -114 (3.42 to win 3 units)
- 9:30: Torres by KO/TKO +115 (2 to win 2.3 units)
