NASCAR Xfinity 500
Martinsville Speedway
Sunday 10/29/23 2:00 PM
0.526 mile, Paved
Playoffs head to Martinsville. Short track racing to advance to the championship.
Last Race Notables: Larson won. Preece led 135 laps, Briscoe 109 laps, Hamlin 36 laps, Larson 30 laps, Logano 25 laps, Harvick 20 laps. Start/Finish: Larson 19/1, Logano 15/2, Blaney 31/7, Elliott 24/10, Bowman 23/11, Chastain 34/13.
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, which makes place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely to be two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.
Process:
Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.
Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:
Point Scoring:
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
DraftKings Scoring:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
- 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
- Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Track Stats:
| Last 4 Races | Driver Pts | Previous Winners | Year | Laps Led | Average Finish | ||
| Elliott | 160 | Larson | 2023 | Elliott | 528 | Logano | 5 |
| Byron | 150 | Bell | 2022 | Hamlin | 342 | Blaney | 6.3 |
| Logano | 145 | Byron | 2022 | Byron | 212 | Bowman | 8 |
| Larson | 143 | Bowman | 2021 | Larson | 175 | Almirola | 8.8 |
| Blaney | 143 | Truex | 2021 | Bell | 150 | Larson | 9 |
| Almirola | 141 | Elliott | 2020 | Preece | 135 | Byron | 9 |
| Briscoe | 124 | Truex | 2020 | Briscoe | 134 | Briscoe | 11.3 |
| Hamlin | 124 | Truex | 2019 | Logano | 34 | Elliott | 11.5 |
| Bell | 122 | Kes | 2018 | Chastain | 31 | Truex | 12.3 |
| Truex | 114 | Logano | 2018 | Harvick | 20 | Chastain | 12.3 |
Picks (DK pricing shown)
Top Tier:
- Denny Hamlin ($11,500) – Starting 4th.
- Joey Logano ($9,800) – Starting 15th.
- Kyle Larson ($11,000) – Starting 5th.
- William Byron ($11,200) – Starting 16th.
- Ryan Blaney ($10,400) – Starting 11th.
Mid Tier:
- Chase Elliott ($8,800) – Starting 14th.
- Ross Chastain $8,000) – Starting 13th.
- Tyler Reddick ($9,200) – Starting 19th.
- Kyle Busch ($9,000) – Starting 31st.
Sleepers:
- Alex Bowman ($7,500) – Starting 22nd.
- Erik Jones ($6,700) – Starting 29th.
- Aric Almirola ($7,400) – Starting 12th.
- Ty Dillon (5,000) – Starting 34th.
For More GOAT Bets: See Today’s Plays
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or @GOAT in Discord.
