Price’s 2023 Sanderson Farms DFS Breakdown:
This week we move from the Ryder Cup to the good ol’ Sanderson Farms Championship at The Country Club of Lake Jackson. This venue has held the tournament for quite a few years in a row now, and we have some decent historical data to pull from. It’s the second event of fall swing, so you’ll once again see the middle to lower echelon golfers who are trying to break into the top 70 for elevated events. Aberg is the big name, but he is also the lone player making the trek from Italy to come play after being in the Ryder Cup. We’ve seen different styles of golfers win here, with the winning score typically pushing 20 under par. It’s a par-72, so we get the normal four par 5s to attack, and Bermuda greens since we are not on the west coast. It’ll be a fun week, let’s make some money. All prices listed are for DraftKings.
$10K+:
- Jaeger: $10,800 – Has three of 4 made cuts here, is top four in tee to green, has gained strokes putting lately, and Bermuda is his best surface.
- Cole: $10,300 – Top guy in the stat model this week, does everything well, and has been knocking on the door the last year to win.
- GPP Plays: Grillo. Aberg would normally be a plug and play, but don’t want to mess with the Ryder Cup hangover.
$9K+:
This range is so meh. Guys are way overpriced and I like the $8K range better.
- Ghim: $9100 – Ghim rated third overall in stats for me, and would probably be first, but he lost NINE strokes putting a few tournaments ago that skews his numbers drastically. He’s been mediocre here, but over his last 10 tourneys is gaining almost five strokes tee to green against the field. Just gotta hope his putter isn’t as bad as it was at the Wyndham.
- Svennson : $9000 – Svensson rates 13th for me this week, but I like the price point on someone who’s gaining strokes across the board his last 20 measured rounds. If his putter shows up, he will T10.
- GPP Plays: Kim will be popular if you want to go there.
$8K+:
This range is filled with my favorite plays this week.
- Smalley: $8900 – Smalley is top in the field over his last 36 rounds on approach and second tee to green. He is God awful at putting, so you just need an average week there and he will be in contention.
- Hubbard: $8800 – A weak field event means we play Hubbard. He rates seventh overall for me and has three solid outings in a row leading up to this event. He finished fifth here last year.
- Ryder: $8500 – Ryder has been gaining strokes on approach at a high clip his last few outings, has made the cut here two years in a row, and he rates second overall in stats for me.
- GPP Plays: Hodges, Hoge, Griffin
$7K+:
The $7k range is where the winning lineups will differentiate themselves.
- Bhatia: $7900 – Bhatia missed the cut at the Fortinet as chalk, so we may see him come in lower owned than he should be. He rates 18th for me in stats.
- Lindheim: $7900 – This is my preferred spend up in the $7k range. He was elite on the KFT and got promoted to the tour at the very end of the season. I think people will go elsewhere because he’s unknown and more expensive than a lot of known commodities.
- Wu: $7600 – Wu rates sixth for me this week, and is coming off a tourney where he gained three strokes on approach, while his last three tournaments he’s gained nearly eight strokes putting. If they click again, he will more than pay off.
- Sigg: $7500 – Sigg rates 10th for me, and would be higher except three events ago he randomly lost five strokes on approach when the other seven events around that one, he’s gained three. Finished ninth here last year.
- Reavie: $7400 – Chez rates fourth for me in stats this week. He has mediocre history here at best, but looks to be a solid play, nonetheless. He went 10 weeks in a row gaining strokes putting to now losing strokes five events in a row. We are banking on the time off allowing him to correct that.
- Lower: $7000 – I did not expect Lower to rate highly for me this week, but he comes in ninth overall. He is bad on par 5s, which makes me wary, but the rest of his game fits the bill for this course and he made the cut here last year.
- GPP Plays: Noren, Streelman, B. Wu, Kuest, Bez, Yu, Novak, Pan, Palmer, Blair, Tarren
$6K+:
This is the price range you expect most of the missed cuts to come from, you’ve just got to hope that if you use anyone here, he makes the cut and can finish top 40. These are not guys you play in 50%+ of your lineups if you run 10 lineups.
- Moore: $6800 – Rates 14th in stats for me, has a made and missed cut here the last two years. His play just comes down to his short game. His approach has been solid over his last five events, but needs to be average putting.
- Redman: $6600 – Has three made cuts in a row here, we’ve seen him pop in weak field events, and he rates 28th in stats for me this week.
- Kodaira: $6500 – Is break even on strokes gained (SG) his last 20 events, is cheap, and is coming off a 30th at the Fortinet. Last player in if you need the savings.
- GPP Darts: Hall, Martin, Kizzire, Knox, Hoffman, Roy, Dufner, Gribble
Core 3 For The Week If:
- doing stars and scrubs – Cole, Grillo, Lower
- doing balanced build – Svensson, Smalley, Hubbard
