What’s up, 4Deep?! Baseball is here and I’m ready to put us in the driver’s seat to hopefully take down some tournaments this year! First and foremost, baseball is the only sport that I consistently play multiple lineups. I HIGHLY recommend at least playing two lineups. Fading chalk in baseball is usually the key to taking down tournaments, but is not always the correct move. What I will be providing below is an in-depth breakdown of my top stacks of the night and I will always start with what I believe will be the chalk, followed with my favorite pitchers as well. Generally speaking, chalk is usually chalk because they are in a good spot and I will be telling you whether or not I agree with it. What I want though, is for you to understand what is chalk and then determine whether or not you want to play them! Now, let’s get to the fun part with a lot of numbers and all the pitch data you can handle!
Chalk Stack Of The Day
DraftKings: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Feltner (RH)
We have a Coors game on DraftKings that is not on FanDuel, so of course that’s shifting tons of ownership on both sites. How do the Dodgers in Coors ever look bad? The only negative here is that they don’t have anything to play for and it’s the backend of a double header. I would not be surprised if we see a very watered down lineup and in that scenario I would try to get away from them because we don’t roster guys just because it’s Coors. We are better than that, despite the value we probably get. If they’re a full go, then by all means, anyway you can stack them is fine with me.
FanDuel: Minnesota Twins vs. Paul Blackburn (RH)
If you have been paying attention, you know I don’t pick on Paul Blackburn. He’s not a bad pitcher by any means and holds his own more than he doesn’t. The Twins have been playing some great baseball though, moving into the top five in the split and really lowering that K rate. This is really an easy fade for me given the ownership, but I’m “okay” with some lefties if you wanted to go this route with Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien leading the way.
Top Stacks Of The Day
Houston Astros vs. George Kirby (RH)
We are going straight at one of the best pitchers on the slate with the hungry Astros. Every game for them at this point is a must-win, which basically puts them already in the playoffs and we know the experience this team has. They are the #1 offense in the split over the last 30 days with the third lowest K rate. Kirby has always been a pitcher I’ve never really understood because he’s good, but his underlying numbers think otherwise. My biggest complaint with him has always been his ability to miss bats and that’s going to really catch up to him tonight. There are going to be tons of balls in play tonight and we’re on the cheap pitching to afford them. My favorites in order are Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. I know they’re expensive, so I’m also fine with sprinkling in anyone else as long as we have two out of four of those guys in the stack.
San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Harrison (LH)
Above we got the league’s best offense in the split against righties over the last 30 days and now we will talk about the best offense on the other side. About a week ago, I was counting out the Padres and thinking it was time for them to throw in the white flag, but they are somehow hanging around the wild card race despite the odds of them getting in being really low. I don’t generally get in depth on these articles, but we are going to go over how much better the Padres have actually been than everyone else in the split over the last 30 days. They have a .451 woba, next has a .393. They have a .192 wrc+, next has a 151. They have a .324 ISO, next has a .232. Their OPS is 1.083, next has .937. We get the point here. I know it’s a small sample, but over the last 30 days, they have quite literally been better than the Braves have been than everyone else all year. On top of all of that, the Padres are facing Kyle Harrison in back to back starts, which is a major red flag. My favorites in order are Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Luis Campusano, and Eguy Rosario for value.
Top Spend Up Pitcher Of The Day
Kevin Gausman (RH) vs. New York Yankees
Big red flag here, but the matchups across the board are not great. Given Gausman has the best matchup of the day, we can make an exception for that flag today…maybe? The Yankees are bottom five in the split with the second highest K rate this month. The Jays are also one of those teams that isn’t completely eliminated from the playoffs yet, so I expect a heavy dose of Gausman tonight. He’s the safest pitcher of the night with what is also likely the highest ceiling.
Top Mid Tier Pitcher Of The Day
Seth Lugo (RH) vs. San Francisco Giants
Statistically, there is nothing here worth targeting, but the entire mid tier is full of landmines. The Giants have been middle of the pack across the board in every major category, but they lack upside, especially in an extremely heavy pitcher’s park.
Top Value Pitcher Of The Day
Cristian Javier (RH) vs. Seattle Mariners
Javier has been extremely underwhelming for the entire year in comparison to the expectations surrounding him. He’s coming off what is probably his best start of the year, which could mean over a one-game sample, he figured it out just in time for the playoffs? I sure hope so because I’m putting my neck out there to tell you he is my favorite pitcher of the night. He’s actually been extremely good against right handed hitting and the best hitters in this lineup are right handed. The Mariners have played better baseball in the second half of the season, but over the last month, they have fallen to the bottom 10 of offenses in the split with the seventh highest K rate over the last month. Gausman’s ceiling is really the only one I’m afraid of and he’s got that red flag on his head. The Astros are still trying to get into the playoffs, so they’re going to need him on his A game and the price tag here is great. If I didn’t already give you enough reasons, he’s also going to be extremely low owned tonight.
