Zab’s EPL Daily Fantasy Plays – 9/16/23

⚽ EPL Slate – 9/16/23 ⚽

Morning, everyone. I’ll be breaking down the best plays for the European Premier League slate. If you haven’t played EPL DFS before, make sure to check out the scoring setup on both sites, as they are different. Some of the main differences are listed below. 

UPDATES: 

Scoring Notes:

• If you are playing on FanDuel, you’re searching for the goals. Goals count for 15 points, and shots are worth one point. Shots on goal are worth five, while assists are seven.
• For defenders, I like looking at cheap center mids who will be on the defensive. I target these players because they will rack up tackles and clearances. Occasionally will pop up with a cheap goal, also.
• If you are playing on DraftKings, goals are worth 10 points, shots are one, and shots on goal are one. Assists are worth six points.
• Playing on DK you want to look for set piece-takers and players that will be crossing the ball. Defenders won’t get as many points for tackles and clearances, so I’m targeting defenders who play on the outside who will move up and cross the ball in.

Slate Thoughts:

I’ll be paying up for goal scorers. I think we see a high-scoring slate. I’ll be looking to find cheap options at defense, allowing me to find more goals.

Matches:

Manchester City (A) vs. West Ham (H)

• MCI are -205 to win and are projected to score three goals in this match. They will be a heavily-targeted team, and one we will look at for goals.
• West Ham are projected to score one goal or less.
• Vegas Projection 3-1 MCI or 3-0 MCI.

Main Targets:

• E. Haaland (MCI) – Goal scoring machine – Highest odds on slate to score a goal. Led EPL in goals last season. Has scored six so far this season.
• J. Alvarez (MCI) – Averaging 30 FPPG in first four matches. Sets up goals and scores them himself. Takes set pieces.
• P. Foden (MCI) – Foden is the set-up man. Foden has three assists so far this season and has created 10 chances and eight crosses in four matches. One of the main set-takers for MCI.
• J. Ward-Prowse (WH) – Takes corners for WH, JWP has been setting up the goals this season. IF West Ham were to score, he will have a hand in it. He did suffer an injury in his last match, but should be fine for game day. 
• L. Paqueta (WH) – Has a hand in everything for West Ham, creates chances, averages a shot a game, and has contributed 18 tackles in four games. He’s a solid mid-priced guy that will give you a little of everything.

Aston Villa (H) vs. Crystal Palace (A)

• AVL are -110 to win and have a team total of over 1.5.
• Crystal Palace are projected to score one goal.
• Vegas Projection 2-1 AVL.

Main Targets:

• E. Eze (CP) – This man does it all for CP, he takes all the set pieces for CP and is averaging 28 points in four matches for them. 
• O. Edouard (CP) – Boom or bust GPP play. He’s going to get you a goal or not enough to do any damage on the score sheet.
• O. Watkins (AVL) – Highest odds to score in this game at +140. Is yet to score this season, but has fired nine shots, with three being on goal. 
• M. Diaby (AVL) – Has scored every other game for AVL. Will the trend continue?

Tottenham (H) vs. Sheffield United (A)

• Tot are favored -370 to win and have a team total of three goals.
• Shu are the biggest underdogs and have a projected team total of one goal.
• Vegas Projection 3-1 Tot.

Main Targets:

• Son Heung-Min (Tot) – Second-highest goal-scoring odds on the slate. Scored a hat trick in his last game. 
• J. Maddison (Tot) – Maddison has been electric since transferring to Tot. He’s averaging 38 points. Expensive, but worth the money. He does it all for the Spurs.
• P. Sarr (Tot) – Cheaper option for the highest favorite on the slate. Sarr is averaging 19 points a game, chips in with chances created and shots every game. He’s scored one goal so far this year. Cheap option to get more exposure to the highest favorite.
• O. Norwood (Shu) – Takes all the sets for Sheffield. Will also chip in with defensive stats.

Man United (H) vs. Brighton and Hove Albion (A)

• Man U is favored to win at +115 with a team total set at over 1.5 -150.
• Brighton’s team total is set 0.5 at -525 and the over 1.5 at +100.
• Vegas Projection 2-1 MU or 2-2 final.

Main Targets:

• B. Fernandes (MU) –  Bruno is one of the most consistent plays on the slate. He sets up chances, takes set pieces for MU, and chips in defensively. Great option for cash games.
• M. Rashford (MU) – Goal scorer for MU, pops up with shots on goals and chances created every match.
• C. Erikson (MU) – Cheaper option for Mu who takes sets. He’s been creating more chances in the last two games and it has shown on the score sheet, producing a goal and assist in his last two. He’s in great form heading into this match.
• K. Mitoma (BHA) – Has been pushing the pace for BHA since the start of the season and has been a great addition to this squad. Has created 14 chances this season and has been rewarded with three assists and one goal, averaging 25 points a game. I can see him getting loose on a counter attack and adding another goal to his stat sheet.

Fulham (H) vs. Luton (A)

• Fulham are -150 favorites and their team total is projected at over 1.5 -135.
• Luton’s team total at over 0.5 goal -185 and under 1.5 goals at -390.
• Vegas Projection 2-1 Fulham.

Main Targets:

• J. Palhinha (FUL) – Accrues points across the board with shots, tackles, clears. Mid tier option playing a low-level team.
• B. De Cordova Reid (FUL) – Mid tier forward option playing a low-level team. Seems to always pop up with a goal in these games.

New Castle (H) vs. Brentford (A) – FANDUEL ONLY

• New Castle are -185 to win, projected to score over 1.5 goals at -185 and the under 2.5 goals is set at -235.
• Brentford goals are set at over 0.5 goals at -190 and under 1.5 goals -380.
• Vegas projection 2-1 Newcastle.

Main Targets:

• B. Mbeumo (BRE) – Goal scorer for Brentford, he will get you there every game with his shots/chances created and SOG. Solid target, but New Castle is a tough side and he’s playing on the road. GPP option.
• C. Wilson (NEW) – Not projected to start, but if he does, he’s worth a look. Has been coming off the bench and scoring as of late.
• A. Isak (NEW) – Scored two goals in the opening match and hasn’t scored since. Not shooting much either. Pure GPP play. But has the second-highest odds on the team to score at -135.

Top Cash Plays:

• Haaland, Alvarez , Maddison, Son, Digne, Robinson, Zouma

Top GPP Stacks:

• Tottenham , MCI , New Castle (FD). Game stack of MU/BHA (low-owned).

Recommended Plays: