Zab’s EPL Daily Fantasy Plays – 9/23/23

Zab's Champions League DFS
⚽ EPL Slate – 9/23/23

Another weekend of Premier League soccer. We have a five-game slate for FanDuel, and a three-game slate for DraftKings. Man City has the highest projected win odds and highest team total on the slate going against Nottingham Forest. Man City will again have some of the highest owned players on the slate, but there are other teams in great spots. Let’s dive in.

UPDATES: 

Scoring Notes:

  • If you are playing on FanDuel, you’re searching for the goals. Goals count for 15 points, and shots are worth one point. Shots on goal are worth five, while assists are seven.
  • For defenders, I like looking at cheap center mids who will be on the defensive. I target these players because they will rack up tackles and clearances. Occasionally will pop up with a cheap goal, also.
  • If you are playing on DraftKings, goals are worth 10 points, shots are one, and shots on goal are one. Assists are worth six points.
  • Playing on DK you want to look for set piece-takers and players that will be crossing the ball. Defenders won’t get as many points for tackles and clearances, so I’m targeting defenders who play on the outside who will move up and cross the ball in.

Matches:

Man City -650 vs. Nottingham Forest +1600

  • Over/ Under goals -3.5 with the lean on the under at -125
  • MCI team total over 2.5 goals -145, under 3.5 goals -230
  • NF over 0.5 goal +110, under 0.5 goal -145
Match Breakdown:

MCI is deserving of the massive odds. They let us down over the week in their Champions League match, but I’m going right back. They are the best team in the Premier League and I see them winning this match 3-1 or 3-0. MCI’s defense is currently a little suspect, so I can see NF scoring one. Awoniyi (NF) is a dangerous goal scorer, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets in behind the defense and gets one late.  Haaland and Alvarez will be my main two targets in cash.

Main Targets:
  • Haaland (MCI) Cash/Gpp – Top goal scoring option for MCI.
  • Alvarez (MCI) Cash/Gpp – In phenomenal form, will be locking him in main lineup.
  • Foden (MCI) Cash/Gpp – Takes sets for MCI.
  • Doku (MCI)  Cash/Gpp – Goal scoring threat looked phenomenal in his last EPL match.
  • Ola Aina (Def) (FD) – Cheap defender option on FanDuel that will rack up clearances and tackles. (cash/gpp)
  • J. Worrall (Def) (FD) – Same as Ola, but for a dollar more on FanDuel. (cash/gpp)

Luton Town +235 vs. Wolves +120

  • Over/Under 2.5 goals with the over being -105 and under -115
  • Luton Town team total over 0.5 goal -285, under 1.5 -250
  • Wolves over 0.5 goal -500 and under 1.5 goals -145
Match Breakdown:

Luton Town is garbage, plain and simple. They have two goals for and 10 against and are 0-4. Wolves aren’t much better with five goals for and 11 against. They have a 1-4 record. This is going to be a low-scoring match. Guessing a 1-1 or 1-0 Wolves win.

Main Targets:
  • C. Morris (Lut) – Goal scoring threat for Lut. Not sure I’ll get here (gpp)
  • M. Cunha (Wol) – Takes PKs, has goal and shot upside (gpp)
  • P. Neto (Wol) – Takes sets for the Wolves , creates chances and has six assists in his last three matches. cash/gpp
  • A. Doughty (def) (Lut) – Takes sets and corners for Lut. Slides up into the attack and chips in with def stats. (cash,gpp)
  • R. Semedo (def) (Wol) – 12 crosses , 19 tackles, 13 clearances, six interceptions, and two shots. Smooth playmaker that will contribute with offensive stats, but unlikely a goal. (gpp)

Crystal Palace -105 vs. Fulham +295

  • Game total over/under 2.5 lean under -130
  • CP team total over 0.5 goals -500, over 1.5 goals +115, under 1.5 goals -340
  • Ful over 0.5 goals -205, under 1.5 goals -340
Match Breakdown:

Crystal Palace plays better home than away. It’s something Cubbable and I mention when they play. We like to target them every time they are the home team. We will be doing this in DFS also. I’ll be having exposure to Edouard and Eze in my GPP lineups and also one of them in my cash lineup. Edouard has been scoring all the goals as of late.

Main Targets:
  • Eze (CP) – Takes all the sets and corners. Goal upside, shot upside. Sign me up (cash/gpp)
  • Edouard (CP) – Four goals, 16 shots, nine on target in five games. In great form currently. (cash/gpp)
  • J. Ayew (CP) – Cheaper option that has 16 crosses, seven chances created, two assists. Did pop up with an injury last match, so will be curious to see if he’s in. 
  • C. Vinicius (Ful) – One game, one goal for Fulham. Great striker. 
  • A. Pereria (Ful) – Takes corners for Fulham and creates chances (DK play)
  • J. Anderson (def) (CP)
  • T. Ream (def) (Ful)

Brentford -120 vs. Everton +350 (FanDuel only)

  • Over/under 2.5 the over is -110, under-115 
  • Bre team total over 1.5 goals -115, under 1.5 goals -110
  • Eve team total over 0.5 goal -205, under 1.5 goals -350
Main Targets:
  • Mbeumo (Bre) – Goal scorer at home vs. a weak side. Takes sets. Cash/gpp
  • Wissa (Bre) – Creates chances, generated five shots last match. Going against a weak Eve team.
  • Jensen (Bre) – Takes sets, creates chances, shoots. Cheaper option to get exposure to Brentford.
  • Doucoure (Eve) – One goal, four shots, one cross, and two chances created last Match. Gpp option
  • Pinnock (Bre) (def)
  • Young (Eve) (def)
  • Hickey (Bre) (def)

Burnley +340 vs. Man United -135 (FanDuel only)

  • Over 2.5 match goals -185, under 3.5 match goals -185
  • Burnley over 0.5 goals -290, under 1.5 goals -235
  • Man U over 1.5 goals -235, under 2.5 goals -290
Main Targets:
  • B. Fernandes (Mun) – Set piece monopoly. Gets involved in attack. Cash/gpp option 
  • Rashford (Mun) – In form and playing fantastic right now. Deadly attacker that has two-goal upside every game.
  • Al dakhil (Brn) (def)
  • Beyer (Brn) (def)

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