Volpe’s NFL Showdown Plays – 9/28/23: Lions at Packers
? Thursday Night Showdown – 9/28/23 ?
Lions @ Packers | 8:15 PM EST
Lions -2.5 | Over/Under 45
Tonight is a huge NFC North matchup. The Lions knocked the Packers out of the playoffs last season and are out to prove they are a contender again. The Detroit Lions have never won an NFC North championship and are the favorites to do so this year. They will attempt to beat the Packers for the 4th consecutive time by pounding the rock with Montgomery and Gibbs against a weak run D. The Green Bay Packers and Jordan Love have proved they are competitive. They are banged up and will be without their two best offensive lineman, and one of their leading tacklers. They are expected to get back offensive stars Aaron Jones and Christian Watson. The Lions have shown some weaknesses, but are in a much better position to win this game, as they should have Taylor Decker and David Montgomery. The Packers have given up some numbers on the ground, so it appears to me it would be a Montgomery/Gibbs game.
UPDATES: Aaron Jones & Christian Watson are ACTIVE
⭐ Notable News ⭐
- Lions rank 32nd against TEs in yards, catches, targets – Musgrave may be a must play depending on ownership. Last season the Lions were not good against TEs either
- The Packers held Amon-Ra St. Brown to six for 49 and four for 55 in the two games last season
- LaPorta leads NFL tight ends with 186 receiving yards
? Key Injuries ?
- DET: OUT: Matt Nelson (T, Ankle), H. Vaitai (G, Knee), Emmanuel Moseley (CB, Knee)
- GB: OUT: Elgton Jenkins (G/T, Knee), DeVondre Campbell (LB, ankle), David Bakhtiari (T, Knee), Jaire Alexander (CB, Back),
?️ Weather ?️
- Lambeau Field (outdoors) | 60 degrees, 0% chance of rain, 5-8 mph winds
? Last Matchups ?
- 1/8/23: Lions 20-16
- 11/6/22: Lions 15-9
- 1/9/22: Lions 37-30
? QB Matchups ? (Through three weeks)
- Lions Defense: Ranked 28th | 24.0 FP/G allowed to QBs
- Packers Defense: Ranked 16th | 16.7 FP/G allowed to QBs
? RB Matchups ? (Through three weeks)
- Lions Defense: Ranked 23rd | 20.9 FP/G allowed to RBs
- Packers Defense: Ranked 20th | 18.5 FP/G allowed to RBs
? Core Players ?
- Captains: Love, Musgrave
- Flex: Montgomery or Gibbs
? More of ?
- St. Brown, A. Jones, Love, Goff, Gibbs, Watson, LaPorta, Monty, Raymond
? Best Values ?
- Montgomery, Musgrave, Raymond, Reynolds
? Less of ?
- Dillon
?Large GPP Plays In Order ?
- Kalif Raymond – Trending upwards and saw six targets last week.
- Marvin Jones – Seems to be getting passed by Reynolds and Raymond, but he still sees 40% of snaps.
- Tucker Kraft – Third round TE, who has played better than backup Josaiah DeGuara. His snap counts have been limited, however, this would be the spot to give him a chance.
? Prediction ?
- Lions 26-23 – The Packers have gone over in every game and both defenses have their weaknesses. I like this to be a competitive game, but I have the Lions sneaking this one out.
? Bets ? (+4.1 units)
- Musgrave OVER 3.5 receptions (+120) – 2 units to win 2.4 units – The Lions are dead last against tight ends and allowed 11 receptions to Falcon tight ends last week and 10 the week prior against Seattle. I’m sure they are aware of this void, but they have other skill positions to worry about.
? Rankings ? See Detailed Player Projections ⬇️
Click Here For Volpe’s Showdown Projections
If you have any lineup questions, ask me @mvolp in Discord before lock!
