Volpe’s NFL Showdown Plays – 9/21/23: Giants at 49ers
? Thursday Night Showdown – 9/21/23 ?
Giants @ 49ers | 8:15 PM EST
49ers -10.5 | Over/Under 45
UPDATES:
We have the home opener for the San Francisco 49ers, who will be facing the New York Giants, who are off to a rough start. The 49ers have a top-three pass rush after two weeks and the Giants’ OL ranks in the bottom 10 in pass protecting. This offensive line also has multiple players that are questionable. In addition to their offensive line issues, they will be without Saquon Barkley.
The 49ers have allowed some numbers to receivers in consecutive weeks to the likes of Allen Robinson, Calvin Austin, Puka Nacua, and Tutu Atwell. Deommodore Lenior is the cornerback to attack for the Giants. He lines up outside and has allowed 15 receptions on 20 passes. The plethora of Giants receivers is where it gets confusing. Hodgins is outside 90% of the time, followed by Slayton and the rookie Jaylin Hyatt, which are the receivers I will have exposure to for the Giants.
The bottom line is that Daniel Jones will be under pressure all night. In addition to that, the Giants have allowed big games to Tony Pollard and James Conner in back to back weeks. Now they will have to deal with a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey while having two rookie corners cover Deebo Samuel. The 49ers haven’t lost a regular season game with Purdy at QB and that has a very high probability of staying true.
⭐ Notable News ⭐
- Brandon Aiyuk is OUT
- WanDale Robinson is ACTIVE
? Key Injuries ?
- NYG: OUT: Barkley (RB, Ankle), Azeez Ojulari (DE, Hamstring), Ben Bredeson (G, Concussion), Andrew Thomas (OT, Hamstring)
- SF: OUT: Brandon Aiyuk (WR, Shoulder), Ambry Thomas (CB, Knee)
?️ Weather ?️
- Levi Stadium, San Francisco (Outdoors) | 60°F, 0% chance of rain, Wind 5-8 MPH
? Last Matchup ?
- 9/27/2020: 49ers 36-9
? QB Matchups ?
- Giants Defense: Ranked 12th | 15.8 FP/G allowed to QBs
- 49ers Defense: Ranked 11th | 15.3 FP/G allowed to QBs
? RB Matchups ?
- Giants Defense: Ranked 20th | 24.1FP/G allowed to RBs | 18th in ’22-’23 allowing 22.9 FP/G
- 49ers Defense: Ranked 16th | 22.3 FP/G allowed to RBs | 1st in ’22-’23 allowing 16.6 FP/G
? Core Players ?
- Captains: Kittle ( 5% owned at captain), TBD
- Flex: McCaffrey, Deebo
? More of ?
- Purdy, Kittle, 49ers D, Moody, Jennings. Slayton, Hodgins, Hyatt, Mitchell
? Best Values ?
- Mitchell, Bell
? Less of ?
- Campbell, Giants DST, Waller
?Players that can win large GPPs ?
- Hyatt – He is a talented rookie who brought the Giants some life last week. He can run by anyone.
- Jennings – more opportunities if Aiyuk misses.
- Mitchell – Good game to give CMC a rest, plus blowout narrative.
- Bell – He has registered decent snap counts and could also see more opportunity with Aiyuk’s injury.
- McCloud – He has been involved in previous years and was recovering from a wrist injury.
- WanDale Robinson – Questionable, but the Giants receiving corps needs help.
? Prediction ?
- 49ers 30-16
? Bets ? (+1.31 Units)
- McCaffrey OVER 78.5 rushing yards – 1.5 units – I think they try to get him 115 rushing yards to tie Jim Brown and OJ Simpson, I’d even look at some alt lines.
- Kittle to score 2 TDs +1500. $30 to win $450
- Moody OVER 1.5 FG’s – 1 unit
? Rankings ? See Detailed Player Projections ⬇️
Click Here For Volpe’s Showdown Projections
If you have any lineup questions, ask me @mvolp in Discord before lock!
