Volpe’s DraftKings NFL Showdown Plays – 12/21/23

December 21, 2023
3:52 pm

Volpe’s NFL Showdown Plays – 12/21/23: Saints at Rams

🏈 Thursday Night Showdown – 12/21/23 🏈
Saints @ Rams | 8:15 PM EST
Rams -3.5 | Over/Under 46

Projections are tailored to DraftKings’ Showdown Captain contests. If you have any lineup questions, for FanDuel or DraftKings, ask me @mvolp in Discord before lock!

UPDATES:

⭐ Notable Info ⭐

The Rams are a different offense with Kyren Williams in the backfield. LA averages 27 points per game when he plays compared to 14.25 when he doesn’t. Since his last return, the Rams have put up 132 points over the last four weeks, including games vs. the Browns and Ravens — the No. 1 and No. 2 defenses in EPA/play on the season. This offense has been a wagon indoors too, with Williams getting the ball. The back is averaging 5.5 yards per carry indoors compared to 4.08 outside and he currently ranks fourth in the league in rushing yards despite missing four games.

🩹 Key Injuries 🩹

Saints: OUT: Isaiah Foskey (DE), Lonnie Johnson Jr (CB), Ryan Ramczyk (OT) | QUES: Kendre Miller (RB)
Rams: OUT: Tre Tomlinson (CB) | QUES: Joe Noteboom (OT)

🌦️ Weather 🌦️

SoFi Stadium – INDOORS

🏈 QB Matchups 🏈

Saints: Ranked 6th | 18.2 FP/G allowed to QBs
Rams: Ranked 21st | 21.8 FP/G allowed to QBs

🏃 RB Matchups 🏃

Saints: Ranked 6th | 18.2 FP/G allowed to RBs
Rams: Ranked 3rd | 17.2 FP/G allowed to RBs

🧤 WR Matchups 🧤

Saints: Ranked 3rd | 27.4 FP/G allowed to WRs
Rams: Ranked 18th | 34.0 FP/G allowed to WRs

🏈 TE Matchups 🏈

Saints: Ranked 21st | 12.8 FP/G allowed to TEs
Rams: Ranked 26th | 13.6 FP/G allowed to TEs

🧩 Core Players 🧩

Tonight’s Build: TBD.
Must-Have: Kyren, Kupp
- Captains: TBD
- GPP: AT Perry (10% owned), Rashid Shaheed (25% owned)

🔝 More of 🔝

Kyren, Stafford, Olave

🔑 Best Values 🔑

Not great value tonight, perhaps the defenses because they are cheap

🚫 Less of 🚫

I am by no means fading these players, but based on matchups, I will have less of Kamara and Puka. I will also have less of Taysom Hill, given his recent injuries and tough matchup on the ground.

🎲 Deeper GPP Plays In Order 🎲

AT Perry – Purely on exploiting a matchup against Derion Kendrick, who was roasted last week
Bowden Jr. – He has still been involved with or without Olave
Davis Allen – He looked good the last two weeks, so I think he has earned himself a role
Moreau – 2+ receptions in three straight. Relationship with Carr from LVR
Graham – Scored a TD in three straight games

🔮 Prediction 🔮

Rams 23-20

🎰 Bets 🎰 (+6.2 units)

Parlay +375: $60 to win $285
- Chris Olave OVER 4.5 Receptions -150
- Tyler Higbee OVER 2.5 Receptions -125
- Kyren OVER 81.5 rush yards -170
🎄Merry Christmas ya filthy animals 🎄