Volpe’s DraftKings NFL Showdown Plays – 1/21/24

Volpe's DraftKings NFL Showdown Plays

Volpe’s NFL Showdown Plays – 1/21/24: Chiefs at Bills

๐Ÿˆ Sunday Night Showdown – 1/21/24ย ๐Ÿˆ
Chiefs @ Bills | 6:30 PM EST
Bills -2.5 | Over/Under 45.5

Projections are tailored to DraftKings’ Showdown Captain contests. If you have any lineup questions, for FanDuel or DraftKings, ask me @mvolp in Discord before lock!

Patrick Mahomes plays his first playoff game on the road in Buffalo. The Chiefs’ offense is simplified right now as they will look to use a heavy dose of RB Isiah Pacheco, and get the ball to Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. The Chiefs’ defense has allowed 20 or less points in each of their last five games, including a 20-17 loss to the Bills in week 14. The Chiefs played on Saturday, so they should be well-rested.

The Bills face a great pass defense as Lajarius Sneed will shadow Stefon Diggs. The Bills will want to get James Cook going and will need Kincaid to step up as the Bills drafted him to help beat the Chiefs. The Bills will have slot corner Taron Johnson, who was cleared from a concussion, but LB Terrel Bernard is a gametime decision. The Bills’ defense has allowed 22 or fewer points in each of their last six games. The Bills played on Monday night and are a little banged up.

To me, it seems like the Bills are the more complete team right now and having home field advantage will be huge for them tonight.

UPDATES:ย 

โญ Notable Info โญย 
๐Ÿฉนย Key Injuries ๐Ÿฉน
  • Chiefs: OUT: Kadarius Toney (WR) | QUES: Willie Gay (LB), Justyn Ross (WR)
  • Bills: OUT: Gabe Davis (WR), Christian Benford (CB), Taylor Rapp (S) | QUES: ย Sam Martin (P), Terrel Bernard (LB)
๐ŸŒฆ๏ธย Weather ๐ŸŒฆ๏ธย 
  • Highmark Stadium – OUTDOORS
  • 23 Degrees, 5% chance of snow, 7-11 MPH Winds
๐Ÿˆย QB Matchups ๐Ÿˆ
  • Chiefs: Ranked 4th | 17.8 FP/G allowed to QBs
  • Bills: Ranked 8th | 18.4 FP/G allowed to QBs
๐Ÿƒย RB Matchups ๐Ÿƒย 
  • Chiefs: Ranked 10th | 19.4 FP/G allowed to RBs
  • Bills: Ranked 18th | 21.2 FP/G allowed to RBs
๐Ÿงคย WR Matchups ๐Ÿงคย 
  • Chiefs: Ranked 3rd | 27.7 FP/G allowed to WRs
  • Bills: Ranked 7th | 30.2 FP/G allowed to WRs
๐Ÿˆย TE Matchups ๐Ÿˆ
  • Chiefs: Ranked 10th | 10.7 FP/G allowed to TEs
  • Bills: Ranked 5th | 10.4 FP/G allowed to TEs
๐Ÿงฉย Core Players ๐Ÿงฉ
  • Tonight’s Build: 4-2 BUF, 4-2 KC, 5-1 BUF
  • Must-Have: Allen, Kelce, Pacheco
    • Captains: Kelce, Cook, Pacheco, Rice
    • GPP: Kincaid, Sherfield/Harty, Watson/Hardman
    • I like Kincaid as a GPP play the Chargers TE’s combined for 8 for 101 against the Chiefs in week 18, Bengals TE’s went 6 for 59 in week 17, and Kincaid had 5 receptions when these teams last faced off.
๐Ÿ” More of ๐Ÿ”
  • Allen, Kelce, Pacheco, Cook, Both Defenses because they are cheap
๐Ÿ”‘ย Best Values ๐Ÿ”‘ย 
  • Kelce, Sherfield, Hardman, Harty, Edwards-Helaire
  • Sherfield and Hardman are the best cheap options
๐Ÿšซย Less of ๐Ÿšซย 
  • Knox, Murray
๐ŸŽฒ Deeper GPP Plays In Order ๐ŸŽฒ
  1. Justin Watson
  2. Deonte Harty – WR4 and should see 20-25% of the snaps
  3. Valdes-Scantling
  4. Hardman Jr. –ย 
  5. Trent Sherfield – With Gabe Davis OUT, Sherfield will be WR3
๐Ÿ”ฎ Prediction ๐Ÿ”ฎ ย 
  • Bills 24-23
๐ŸŽฐ Bets ๐ŸŽฐ (+6.3 units)
  • Mahomes OVER 24.5 completions +100 – 1 unit
  • Diggs o5.5 receptions -115 – 1 unit
๐Ÿ“ˆย Rankings ๐Ÿ“ˆย See Detailed Player Projections โฌ‡๏ธ

Click Here For Volpe’s Showdown Projections

If you have any lineup questions, ask me @mvolp in Discord before lock!

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