Volpe’s NFL Showdown Plays – 1/21/24: Chiefs at Bills
🏈 Sunday Night Showdown – 1/21/24 🏈
Chiefs @ Bills | 6:30 PM EST
Bills -2.5 | Over/Under 45.5
Projections are tailored to DraftKings’ Showdown Captain contests. If you have any lineup questions, for FanDuel or DraftKings, ask me @mvolp in Discord before lock!
Patrick Mahomes plays his first playoff game on the road in Buffalo. The Chiefs’ offense is simplified right now as they will look to use a heavy dose of RB Isiah Pacheco, and get the ball to Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. The Chiefs’ defense has allowed 20 or less points in each of their last five games, including a 20-17 loss to the Bills in week 14. The Chiefs played on Saturday, so they should be well-rested.
The Bills face a great pass defense as Lajarius Sneed will shadow Stefon Diggs. The Bills will want to get James Cook going and will need Kincaid to step up as the Bills drafted him to help beat the Chiefs. The Bills will have slot corner Taron Johnson, who was cleared from a concussion, but LB Terrel Bernard is a gametime decision. The Bills’ defense has allowed 22 or fewer points in each of their last six games. The Bills played on Monday night and are a little banged up.
To me, it seems like the Bills are the more complete team right now and having home field advantage will be huge for them tonight.
UPDATES:
⭐ Notable Info ⭐
🩹 Key Injuries 🩹
- Chiefs: OUT: Kadarius Toney (WR) | QUES: Willie Gay (LB), Justyn Ross (WR)
- Bills: OUT: Gabe Davis (WR), Christian Benford (CB), Taylor Rapp (S) | QUES: Sam Martin (P), Terrel Bernard (LB)
🌦️ Weather 🌦️
- Highmark Stadium – OUTDOORS
- 23 Degrees, 5% chance of snow, 7-11 MPH Winds
🏈 QB Matchups 🏈
- Chiefs: Ranked 4th | 17.8 FP/G allowed to QBs
- Bills: Ranked 8th | 18.4 FP/G allowed to QBs
🏃 RB Matchups 🏃
- Chiefs: Ranked 10th | 19.4 FP/G allowed to RBs
- Bills: Ranked 18th | 21.2 FP/G allowed to RBs
🧤 WR Matchups 🧤
- Chiefs: Ranked 3rd | 27.7 FP/G allowed to WRs
- Bills: Ranked 7th | 30.2 FP/G allowed to WRs
🏈 TE Matchups 🏈
- Chiefs: Ranked 10th | 10.7 FP/G allowed to TEs
- Bills: Ranked 5th | 10.4 FP/G allowed to TEs
🧩 Core Players 🧩
- Tonight’s Build: 4-2 BUF, 4-2 KC, 5-1 BUF
- Must-Have: Allen, Kelce, Pacheco
- Captains: Kelce, Cook, Pacheco, Rice
- GPP: Kincaid, Sherfield/Harty, Watson/Hardman
- I like Kincaid as a GPP play the Chargers TE’s combined for 8 for 101 against the Chiefs in week 18, Bengals TE’s went 6 for 59 in week 17, and Kincaid had 5 receptions when these teams last faced off.
🔝 More of 🔝
- Allen, Kelce, Pacheco, Cook, Both Defenses because they are cheap
🔑 Best Values 🔑
- Kelce, Sherfield, Hardman, Harty, Edwards-Helaire
- Sherfield and Hardman are the best cheap options
🚫 Less of 🚫
- Knox, Murray
🎲 Deeper GPP Plays In Order 🎲
- Justin Watson
- Deonte Harty – WR4 and should see 20-25% of the snaps
- Valdes-Scantling
- Hardman Jr. –
- Trent Sherfield – With Gabe Davis OUT, Sherfield will be WR3
🔮 Prediction 🔮
- Bills 24-23
🎰 Bets 🎰 (+6.3 units)
- Mahomes OVER 24.5 completions +100 – 1 unit
- Diggs o5.5 receptions -115 – 1 unit
📈 Rankings 📈 See Detailed Player Projections ⬇️
Click Here For Volpe’s Showdown Projections
If you have any lineup questions, ask me @mvolp in Discord before lock!
