TOMMY G’s 2023 NFL WEEK 4 DFS PLAYS
? QB ?
Josh Allen
- I’m paying up this week for Josh. He’s gunna go the fuck off. I know we don’t love paying up for QB but the more I analyze the QB position this week the more I think this is an actual leverage play on the field. A lot of ppl will be taking chances at QB this week. Hurts is in a potential blowout game, Mahomes is off the slate, Lamar has a bad matchup, tua has really struggled vs the Bill and Cousins is in a game where they should win and are facing a team allowing 140 yards per game on the ground, so we may see some overdue cousins regression. That leaves Herbert as the other option and he’s in a great spot, but gimme the duel guy who didn’t just lose one of his main weapons in an up pace game vs a team he’s destroyed for $300 more. In 2 games vs Miami last year Allen went for 704 yds, 6 TD, and had 18 attempts for 124 yards on the ground. Yeah. U get a 30 out of Allen this week (which I think we do) I think it means more than in most weeks cause there’s a lot less potential for that at the top than usual and a lot of people will be taking risks at QB this week. I know there is a ton of amazing high priced receivers and CMC that you wanna pay up for, but there’s a shit ton of mid priced stars this week too, and if Allen goes 300/3 50/1 like I think he’s about to…you will need him to win. I know the pairing is with Diggs, but with the addition of Kincaid and his rushing upside, you can play him naked and hope he spreads it around so you don’t have 16k tied to two positions (although I would recommend the hook up here).
Stroud
- He’s still too underpriced for the upside, pace and volume we have seen. The evolution of Dell to go along with Woods and Nico will make him viable every week under 6k.
I’d play herbert on the LAC/LV game stack, but going to Josh when i can. Also like burrow and fields in 2 contrarian spots here.
? RB ?
CMC
- You can actually get to him with Allen easy because of browns, a cheap tight end and tank and still build a good roster, prob gonna have to go naked with Josh tho or drop to gave Davis as the hookup. IF Elijah Mitchell plays I may have him on the main in what would be a huge salary saver in a blowout game where he should get a lot of 2H burn, but the injury situation doesn’t look good. If Mitchell sits I think u jam in Josh and CMC and lock down 60+ with 75 upside in those 2 spots
SWIFT
- Scarface is on this too, so that’s enough for me. Kyren & Moss are more popular options at this price, but they will be higher owned by a lot imo.
Other: Jacobs, kyren, moss, Elijah Mitchell if he plays cheap and Antonio Gibson as a milly maker punt (70% snap share last week and this should be another blowout)
? WR ?
KEENAN
- DK straight fucked up his price and I think u gotta eat the chalk here. He’s 1500 too cheap and no Mike Williams.
OLAVE
- IF we get Jamies this is a SMASH! Due to the way I’m constructing my lineups, and Keenan and Chase being way too close to him in price, it’s a tough pull, but he pops for hundred with Jameis and makes for a nice pivot off Allen chalk. Play his prop if he’s not in ur lineup. Like him with Carr. LOVE him with Jameis.
Jefferson is always the #1 but at almost 2k more than Keenan he’s fough to justify. NOW he will come in lower owned cause of this so he makes for a sick GPP play. Allen is probably best play price considered, Diggs is out hook up, and I’m off Hill (who’s never hit 70 yards bs bills if I’m not mistaken) and Adams with no Jimmy.
CHASE
- He’s going for a hundy vs this joke of a team and is cheaper than the rest of the guys.
TANK
- I don’t need to explain this. You know this is my boy. 100% owned again regardless of ownership just like the last 3 weeks. I’ve been (the only one) saying it for 3 weeks, “Tank is not ‘gonna be’ the #1 in the future. HES THE #1 NOW and last week he proved it. His 45.5 prop is my biggest bet of the week and if u made 100 lineups he should be in 101 of them.
SUTTON
- 5300 is a fucking joke in this matchup. DK was drunk with their pricing this week he’s $1000 to cheap.
PICKENS
- Huge big play upside and you know I’m obsessed with him. He’s in that 5-6k range and could pop for 25 if he breaks one.
DOTSON
- Love this contractian play this week if u feel your lineup is chalky. All the guys above are around the same price as him and gonna be MUCH higher owned. The kid has insane talent and has been getting looks and snaps (16 targets, 90% snap share) and we know he can ball. I FUCKING WISH PICKENS AND SUTTON WERE 6K cause it would hurt less to push this button, but I love early season overreactions cause people forget that this kid was a seasonal bullseye for everyone for a reason just 3 fuckin weeks ago. 90% snaps, over 5 targets a game (and this should be more of a ceiling game), 7 TDs on 35 rec last year so we know he can get in the box and the most important factor, Slay is on McClaurin. If you don’t play him I get it, but at least smash his over 35.5 prop if you don’t. 7/70/1 incoming at sub 5k.
Puka, Tutu, Pittman are great plays Im jusy gonna Jam them all in on a Stanford game stack of this game but they are great value (chalky, but phenomenally priced)
? TE ?
2 guys I’m looking at here and 2 guys only. Due to my roster construction I can’t pay up. I liked Mikes Parham at 2800 with TD upside, but for me I need a guy at every position who can score 15+. Those 2 guys under 3500 (cause we gotta save salary with Josh and another big name or 2) Okonkwo and Ferguson.
FERGUSON
- Shockingly leads all Tightends in the NFL in redzone looks while averaging 6 targets a game…at 3500. Yeah.
OKONKWO
- 3100 and should be the #2 offensive option this week with Treylon out. Cinci has been getting beat up by the tight end (although they have played 3 good ones so it’s skewed), but there’s upside her with no Treylon. We saw a ton of 40+ yard games out of him last year (4 of last 6) so a 5/50/1 line at 3100 is not out of reach. I prefer Ferguson, but u may need the 400
? DEFENSE ?
BROWNS
- Another pricing fuck up, just eat the chalk
