‘THIS IS MARCH’ BRACKET BIBLE

4DeepBets.com Presents:

TOMMY G’S “THIS IS MARCH”

BRACKET BIBLE!

THIS. IS. MARCH! In this article I will recap the Regular Season / Conference Tournaments that have already been completed, then I will do a brief overview of each region with some of my opinions on how it will play out. After that, I will go through some futures bets I like. In order to get the full betting breakdown and plays for the tournament, you will need to join 4deepbets.com. We have a HUGE promo going on right now!

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WE WILL BE LIVE IN DISCORD FROM THURSDAY THRU MONDAY SWEATING THE GAMES, GIVING LIVE PLAYS AND PARTYING!!!!!

Ok, onto the Madness…

SECTIONS:

CONTENT SCHEDULE
CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT RECAP
ALL 64 TEAMS BROKEN DOWN BY CONFERENCE
REGIONAL CHEAT SHEET
FAVORITE & LEAST FAVORITE SEEDS
MY TOP 5’s CHEAT SHEET
HOFFMAN’S ARTICLE
RECORDED SHOW LINKS
FUTURES BETS
DAILY BETS FOR ALL GAMES

SECTION 1: MARCH MADNESS WEEK 1 CONTENT SCHEDULE

Tuesday
- TOMMY G “THIS IS MARCH” BRACKET BIBLE (FREE)
- Stay Cashin youtube show 2pm-3pm (FREE)
- Hoffman’s March Madness guide (subscribers only)
- Bets for the first day of play-in games (subscriber only)
Wednesday
- LIVE MARCH MADNESS VOICE CHAT SHOW!
- Stay Cashin youtube show 2pm-3pm (FREE)
- Release of the 4deep staff’s brackets (subscribers only)
- 4deepbets $500 bracket challenge announced (subscribers only)
- Bets for the 2nd day of play-in games (subscribers only)
Thursday – Sunday
- Bets for every game in the tournament (subscribers only)
- LIVE DISCORD SWEAT SHOWS EVERY DAY (subscribers only)
- Prizes, Giveaways, Contests & More (subscribers only)
Monday
- Sleep for 36 hours

SECTION 2: CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT RECAP

BETTING RECAP

This season was a ton of fun with a lot of chaos, but overall we killed it as usual. I promised you guys a monster March and so far we have had exactly that. The REAL conference tournaments started on Tuesday with the ACC and that was when the fun really began! So far for the month of March we are up 136.65 units, which if it continues, will mark the second 100 unit month of 2022 (we did 103.12 units in January). We had MULTIPLE RUNS during last week where we nailed 10+ bets IN A ROW, with the longest streak being 12 straight on Saturday. After absolutely murdering the books all week, I decided to max bet the board on Sunday…and let’s just say Sunday wasn’t very kind to us! After a HORRIFIC beat in the Davidson game and a TERRIBLE ending in Princeton, Purdue and Memphis collapsed at the same time, making Tennessee the only winning college basketball bet of the 5, including a couple of live bet losses, so we definitely got the bad day out of the way before the fun begins! Here is the daily breakdown and final performance for the month so far. We are currently up 136.65 units and hitting 60{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} of our bets (with some +1000 parlay hits also).

To put this into a real dollar perspective, here is how this breaks down:

$5 per unit bettor is up $683.25

$10 per unit bettor is up $1,366.50

$100 per unit bettor is up $13,665.00

SECTION 3: 64 TEAMS BROKEN DOWN BY CONFERENCE

Most people like to break the tournament down by region, but I think the most effective way to get a read on who you want to pick is to break it down by conference, and work from there. Here is a breakdown of every Multi-Bid conference and every single team in the field. If you can’t set a viable bracket with this information, you might just wanna sit this March out. I AM NOT INCLUDING MY BETS FOR EACH GAME OR MY FINAL BRACKET IN HERE, THAT WILL REMAIN FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY, SO SIGN UP YA CHEAP FUCKS. Now, let’s begin…

CONFERENCE: AMERICAN

BIDS: 2
TEAMS: Houston (5), Memphis (9)
OVERVIEW: Houston can fuck some shit up, and Memphis can beat ANYONE. Houston ended up winning the conference, as expected, but I was, and still am, pretty high on Memphis. These Houston and Memphis teams are VERY GOOD and both can beat anyone in the country (while Memphis can not only beat any team, but also lose to any team, since they are completely retarded, but insanely athletic). Unfortunately, they are both saddled with tough 1st round games and inevitable appointments with Arizona and Gonzaga shortly thereafter, so trusting either of these guys will be a decision that will make or break your bracket. SMU got snubbed for the tournament in my opinion and should have been in the field of 68.

HOUSTON is a team to watch, since they were 6-1 on neutral sites and 7-3 on the road, which is an important stat come Thursday. Houston is a top 20 offensive and defensive team in some of the more advanced metrics, along with being a top 15 team overall, so to say they have what it takes to make a run isn’t that bold of a prediction, considering they made it to the Final 4 last year. However, no one will have them going deep for two reasons: 1) They are a 5 seed, so the fear of the 5-12 matchup alone will give people pause in picking them to go to far; and 2) They run into Arizona in the second round, who everyone is obsessed with. I have not finalized my bracket yet, but I will tell you this, there is a very good chance you see Houston making it out of this region for me! Houston is a 5 seed who should really be a 3 seed, but the committee disrespected this entire conference.

MEMPHIS is similar to Houston, but they are a little more long and athletic, but a lot more retarded and poorly coached. Memphis can LITERALLY BEAT ANYONE IN THE COUNTRY, they are that good, but they can also lose to anyone since they are, like I said before, completely retarded. Memphis can hang with anyone offensively, are one of the best defensive teams you will find, are long as fuck, BUT they turn the ball over more than Russell Westbrook with a concussion. This team is basically the team no one wants to play, and that includes Gonzaga, who will most likely see them for what I think can be a bracket-busting affair in round 2…as long as Memphis doesn’t turn the ball over 30 times versus Boise and get bounced in round 1. Overall The American Athletic is VERY UNDERRATED, so keep your eye on Memphis and Houston NO MATTER WHO THEY PLAY, cause they can beat ANYONE, including Arizona and Gonzaga.

CONFERENCE: A10

BIDS: 2
TEAMS: Davidson (10), Richmond (12)
OVERVIEW: Davidson and Richmond get BIG10 foes round 1, and they are gonna be a problem! This is a sneaky good conference that can fuck some people up this week. The A10 was a two-bid conference, but could have been 3 with Dayton getting fucked over for some more name brand teams like Michigan. Richmond faced Davidson in the final and this was one of the better games of the week, with a very dangerous Richmond team knocking off Davidson as a slight dog, thanks in large part to an uncharacteristic collapse by Davidson late.

DAVIDSON matches up with Michigan State in a 7-10 matchup and this game has upset written all over it. Davidson is not a great defensive team, but the thing they do VERY WELL is shoot 3s, ending the year at almost a 39{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} clip, which ranked top 10 in the nation. They also have some size down low with a 7-footer in the middle, so they have all the ingredients to fuck some shit up. Richmond is coming in WHITE HOT, playing with house money, and they are running right into the most favorable situation an underdog can ask for….a 12 seed! We all know the history of the 5-12 upsets.

RICHMOND is going to face off with the team EVERYONE is picking as their final 4 sleeper, Iowa, who just ran thru the BIG10 like a hot knife through butter. Richmond is a double digit dog in this game, for good reason, but Richmond has 3 very important qualities that cannot be overlooked: They are one of the oldest teams in all of college basketball, they are playing with house money and shouldn’t even be here, and they have a 5-foot-9 serial killer in Jacob Gilyard, who just dropped 26 and 32 points to knock off VCU and Davidson last week. I don’t know if they win, but this is not the cake walk the casual fans think it is for Iowa.

CONFERENCE: ACC

BIDS: 5
TEAMS: Duke (2), UNC (8), Miami (10), Virginia Tech (11), and Notre Dame (play in)
OVERVIEW: The ACC fucking sucks, but they ended up with 5 bids to the dance, with Notre Dame sneaking into a play-in game vs Rutgers, Miami getting a 7-10 matchup with USC (who I think sucks), UNC sitting at an 8 seed in a tough quadrant, Virginia Tech going batshit with a glass slipper to sneak in as an 11 versus Texas in round 1, and Duke getting GIFT WRAPPED the 2 seed in the softest quadrant in March Madness history! I have more confidence in Virginia Tech than any other team here, but unfortunately they have the toughest draw.

DUKE is the most overrated and embarrassing team in coach K’s tenure. Led by Paolo Banchero, who is arguably the best player in the country, Duke has FIVE GUYS who may go in the top 30 of this coming NBA draft, but they have done nothing but disappoint in big spots this year. Not only did they get skull-fucked by UNC at home for Coach K’s farewell game at Cameron, but they followed that up by getting pissed on by a Virginia Tech team who had no business even being in the finals of the ACC tournament. I know, I know, they beat Kentucky and Gonzaga, so how can I be so down on them? Well, those games were in fucking November and honestly, I don’t give a shit about anything that happened 4 months ago in a sport that is all about momentum and growth as a team. While other teams have begun to gel and grow, Duke has come undone and fallen apart. The ACC was a COMPLETE JOKE this year and I feel their record is a result of that, more than their talent and performance. Does Duke have the talent and coaching to win the whole thing? 100{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83}, you can argue (without much of a case for the opposition) that Duke DEFINITELY has the most talented team in the country, but unfortunately that’s not enough to win 6 games in a row this time of year. The committee spoon-fed them the easiest quadrant ever, so I can see them making it out of the region, but I am not putting them in the elite 8 or final 4 – the problem is I can’t decide who knocks them off just yet.

UNC is an 8 seed going up against Marquette and then Baylor if they win, and I am going to make this one quick…I have no fucking clue what to tell you. I have not had a good read on UNC all year and am not gonna pretend I know what they are going to do. All I can say is they play in a shit conference and they are the most unpredictable team in the country, so flip a fucking coin on the Marquette game and pencil in Baylor to knock ‘em off and move on to the next part of you bracket.

MIAMI is the team I am most interested in here since I think USC is fucking terrible and Ihave been betting against them all year. The winner of this game gets Auburn, who I also have been saying are a fucking joke and betting against all year, so as much as I would love a little sexier team to be placed in this spot, Miami may just be good enough to make it out of the first weekend for me. Miami has the one thing I love this time of year – they are 10-2 on the road this year and have won 80{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} of their quad 1 games. Now, I don’t wanna suck their dick too hard since I don’t really love this team since they are a bit of a mess defensively, but they are just in the most money upset spot in the tourney, getting the 2 most overrated teams in back to back games and honestly not having much else after that ‘til the elite 8 since this half of the region is ass. If you wanna pick a double digit seed to make it to the elite 8, you can do worse than Miami.

NOTRE DAME enters with a play-in game versus Rutgers, and they are pretty much what a Mike Brey team always is: Very smart, they don’t foul much (2nd lowest in the nation), they don’t get any blocks or steals (ranked over 300th in both), but they play fundamental, safe D, and are gonna make you make mistakes. They only go about 7 guys deep, and they can fuckin’ rain from beyond the arc (38{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83}, top 20 in the country). So basically, they are Notre Dame. I think they can edge out Rutgers in the play-in game and possibly even knock off an erratic Alabama team after that, but there is nothing sexy about them outside of the fact that they are a fundamentally sound 3-point shooting team, in a soft quadrant of overrated teams. I am leaning Rutgers in this one, but no matter who wins this matchup, they can both beat (or lose by 20 to) ‘Bama.

VIRGINIA TECH, Cinderella herself, is maybe the hottest team in America over the last week, knocking off 3 tournament teams as underdogs and shit-stomping UNC and Duke by a combined 28 points to walk away with ACC gold. Now, I know I keep saying this conference sucks, but that is more “relative to its prior years,” so this run was nothing to sneeze at! Virginia Tech is well-coached, they are playing with house money, they are HOT and they RAIN THREES, shooting almost 40{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} from 3 as a team (3rd in the country). After losing 10 of 15 games in the middle of the year, Va Tech put it together and won 7 of their last 8 games heading in, and are basically a pick ‘em in their first round game versus Texas. If you are in a tournament where you get bonus points based on seed, you take VTech here without even thinking, since Purdue and Kentucky still stand in the way of the winner, and will most likely dispose of them, but this is a very tough section to make a deep run, so I don’t know how far I can send them. I really wish the committee would have made Tech a 10 and Miami an 11 and put Tech in the USC/Auburn section of the bracket cause I 100{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} woulda sent them to the 2nd weekend and maybe even beyond. Tough draw for a hot, sexy team, but I would not be suprised if they fucked some brackets up.

CONFERENCE: BIG12

BIDS: 6
TEAMS: Kansas (1), Baylor (1), Texas Tech (3), Texas (6), TCU (9), Iowa State (11)
OVERVIEW: In my opinion, this is one of the sexiest conferences in college basketball, and from top to bottom, is littered with dangerous teams, making these teams very battle-tested heading into the big dance. The only problem is this whole conference has a losing record on the road, outside of Kansas (8-3) and Baylor (6-4), which puts the odds of any of these other 4 winning a few games on a neutral site pretty slim. Both Kansas and Baylor benefitted from some other top teams collapsing in their conference tournaments to secure 1 seeds, while Baylor was handed a tough region in the west, and Kansas was shockingly gifted a joke of a region in the Midwest. Texas Tech is a bit of an enigma with a 3 seed, but a 3-7 road record this year, while Texas, TCU and Iowa State were handed horrific draws in their first games and all may be ousted early. Kansas has only a couple bumps on their road to the final 4, while Baylor has a gauntlet to get there, but they will be the only 2 teams making a deep run this year from the BIG12.

KANSAS dominated the conference tournament, winning their final 3 games by a combined total of almost 50 points, so they are comin’ in hot after a bit of a stumble a couple weeks ago with back to back losses to Baylor and TCU. Although Kansas is definitely one of the 6 best teams in the tournament, they are not really “elite” at anything specifically, ranking outside the top 15 in every offensive category outside of field goal percentage (14th), but don’t let that fool you, because they are very solid everywhere and don’t have many holes. The other big factor here is the combination of Agbaji and Braun, who are both serial killers on the court and future NBA talents. Kansas should coast out of the first weekend and has a fairly easy road to the final 4, barring Providence putting it all together (which they won’t ‘cause coach Cooley sucks)

BAYLOR is coming off a national championship run in 2021, but has been destroyed by injuries all year long, which is part of the reason I have trouble seeing them make it to the final weekend this year. This is a very good team that does everything well, but the one category they are top 10 in the nation in, is the exact thing I think will hurt them. Baylor is 8th in the country in scoring margin, beating teams by an average of almost 13 points per game, but the problem with this is, they have not been in many close games, which is something I look for heading into the tournament. Not only have they won by an average of 13 points per game, but they have also gotten beaten up by an average of almost 10 points a game in all of their losses, with only 1 being by less than 5 points. I can see them making another epic run, but I personally have them getting knocked off by an underrated and experienced UCLA team in the sweet 16, which will make or break my bracket.

TEXAS TECH is a complete enigma to me. This team won me a lot of money on their magical run years ago, and I still rock the TT hat in their honor, but I cannot get a read on this team this year. They are possibly the best defensive team in college basketball, holding opponents to 38.4{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} from the field and under 21 field goals a game, in a tough conference, so they have one side of the ball on lockdown. The issues for them will be twofold: 1) They are 3-7 on the road, which is completely unacceptable and a major red flag in a tournament where every game will be on a neutral site; and 2) they rank 282nd in 3=point percentage. TTU is 281st in 3-point field goals attempted per game and 298th in the nation in 3-point field goals made, meaning if they get down, it’s gonna be tough for them to shoot their way back into a game. Tech is gonna need to rely on their defense to keep games close and pray they don’t run into a team that catches fire, which in march madness is a big ask, hence why I have them losing to Alabama in the 2nd round. The major factor they have going for them to have a chance at a deep run, though, is that this quadrant is WEAK AS FUCK, so they won’t run into anyone scary until the elite 8 outside of Duke, who is overrated. Good luck handicapping Tech, I’m already assuming whatever I do with them, it will fuck me.

TEXAS is a team I was pretty high on due to the insane amount of transfers they got, but unfortunately they have not been able to gel as well as I thought they would. An early exit at the hands of TCU (who isn’t that good) was the final straw for me, therefore I am sending their asses home on day one in favor of the super hot Hokies of Virginia Tech. Texas doesn’t do anything that well on the offensive side of the ball, but is a lockdown, elite defensive team, but a matchup with Va. Tech who likes to rain threes is about as bad as it gets for the ‘Horns.

TCU sucks. I know, they are a 9 seed and they beat Kansas and Tech and had a few other nice wins, but this team is fucking trash. They are 236th in PPG, 230th in effective field goal percentage, 324th in free throw percentage, 320th in 3-point percentage…ARE WE GOOD HERE? This team fucking sucks, the only thing they do well is offensive rebounds (where they are one of the best in the country), but that is mainly cause they have a lot of practice with their squad missing every fucking shot they throw up. TCU may sneak a win against Seton Hall on the first day, but they will get skull-fucked by Arizona if they do.

IOWA STATE is another team that is fairly unimpressive, but unlike TCU, they got a pretty favorable draw in the very erratic bottom of the midwest region. The Cyclones are a pretty terrible offensive team, similar to TCU, but the one thing they do is grind. This team is like TCU, but with heart, so I can see them giving LSU some problems and possibly even upsetting them (since LSU is slightly retarded at times), but I’ve got Iowa State knocked out day 1 due to a lack of offense.

CONFERENCE: BIG EAST

BIDS: 6
TEAMS: Villanova (2), Providence (4), UCONN (5), Creighton (9), Marquette (9), Seton Hall (8)
OVERVIEW: The BIG EAST stole 6 bids this year, but honestly, outside of Villanova, the team I was most excited to pick to upset some people in the tournament was St. John’s, who decided to collapse at the end of the year losing 6 of their last 10 games. Nova is always a threat with the best coach in college basketball, senior leadership, incredible three point and free throw shooting, and all the intangibles. Providence has a team that could make the final 4, but a coach who should be coaching a high school team, and that will bite them again, as it has in most of their big games this year. The rest of the Big East teams all have some upside to make some noise, but nothing sexy enough to make it to April. Nova can make a 3rd weekend run, and even possibly win it all, but outside of them, Providence is the only team that can make some noise in this tourney past the first weekend.

VILLANOVA has every intangible you can ask for from a March Madness team, the only thing they are lacking is that “IT FACTOR.” They do everything well, they shoot over 35{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} from 3, they are top 25 in opponent’s points per game, they don’t turn the ball over, they are old, they have a stud point guard in Gillespie, who has been here before, and possibly most importantly, they are about to break a national record from the free throw line (yes, NATIONAL RECORD, meaning they are about to possibly have the best free throw percentage in NCAA HISTORY) and you know how important free throws are in close games. With all that said, they aren’t very athletic and struggle on the boards at times. The big thing for Nova was their draw, and they got a decent one, with Tennessee being the only threat to them making the elite 8. I think a Tennessee/Villanova matchup is a lock in this quadrant of the bracket (my favorite team versus my alma mater) and honestly, this is DRIVING ME FUCKING NUTS, cause I think the winner of this game makes the final 4, so I may have to fill out 2 main brackets and split it up.

PROVIDENCE is a team I actually really like with a closer in Durham to close out the games, and a stable of guys who can make big shots in big moments, but coach Cooley is fucking trash. Providence shockingly has done very well in close games this year in spite of Cooley being retarded, but I think that ends now, and when I say now, I MEAN RIGHT NOW, DAY 1, BYE FELICIA! Sorry Providence, you have been good to me this year, but that shit-stomping at the hands of Creighton was the last time I ride with you. Early exit for the Friars.

UCONN starts the tourney off in the dreaded 5 hole, but I think they have the weakest 12 seed of the 4, so they should be ok here…I think. UCONN is gonna be a sexy pick for sharps who watch a lot of college basketball because they fucking ATTACK THE GLASS and are a menace defensively. Most teams that are seeded outside the top 3 that are elite rebounding teams and elite paint defenders usually don’t have the athletes offensively to make any noise, but this team kinda does. They tend to play games in the 60s, but they have 3 guys who are studs in Cole, Sanogo and Martin. The problem is, outside of that, they don’t have much offensively, so as long as Sanogo can stay on the court, they can beat anyone, but unfortunately Sanogo will most likely get in foul trouble, and when that happens, they are in trouble. Their fate relies on the refs in my opinion, but I think they’ll have enough firepower to get out of the first weekend with some real deep run upside if the whistles go their way.

CREIGHTON is a very interesting team this year and one that on the surface seems to have everything you need to make a deep run, but something is just off with these guys this year. They have 5 guys who can kill you, a 7-foot athletic center, are a very good defensive team with a good coach, and they are clutch, but for some reason….they don’t impress me. I feel like this team should be so much better than it is, but they are exactly what they are seeded, a 9 seed with upside. I hadn’t seen this team put it together all year until they came out and absolutely castrated Providence 85-58 in the Big East tournament, only to follow it up with a 48 point outing against Villanova the next day, and that, ladies and gentlemen, is what Creighton is. Would I be shocked if they put it all together and made it out of one of the softer regions? NO! Would I be surprised if they put up 50 points against San Diego St. and lost their first game? NO! So I will probably pick them to beat SDSU, but I can’t pick them to win 2 games in a row.

MARQUETTE…honestly, fuck Marquette, I hate this team. Marquette is so fucking unpredictable it is maddening, which makes it even more infuriating that they play the other team I can’t figure out, UNC, in the first round. Marquette is well coached with Smart, have a killer in Justin Lewis and another stud in Darryl Morsell, but outside of that, they have nothing but a couple guards who can hit some 3s. This should sum up Marquette for those of you who haven’t followed them much:

First 7 games: 7-1 and knocked off top 10 Illinois
Next 5 games: 1-5 and shoulda lost to K-State in their 1 win
Next 9 games: 8-1 and beat Nova TWICE and Providence by 30
Next 10 games: 3-5 and had their easiest stretch of games all year

GET IT? Good. Basically, just flip a coin for this UNC/Marquette game and have the winner losing to Baylor….then get ready to stab yourself in the eye when the winner of this 8-9 game actually makes it to the Elite 8 and loses you all your money.

SETON HALL is seeded between 8 and 10 for the 7th time in their last 8 appearances, and that’s really all they are, or have been since the ‘90s. This team is fine, like usual, they deserve to be in, and like usual, they will not go anywhere. I told you they were seeded 8-10 in 7 of their last 8 appearances, well they have been bounced on the first weekend in 7 of their last 8 appearances also. The Hall is “fine” at almost everything, but great at nothing. The one thing they do have going for them is they are comin’ in hot, winning 9 of their last 12, but that’s even a little deceiving since only 2 of those 9 wins were versus teams playing in the tournament. I think the Hall beats TCU, cause TCU sucks, but expect a skull-fucking at the hands of Arizona if they do.

CONFERENCE: BIG10

BIDS: 9 (eye roll emoji)
TEAMS: Purdue (3), Wisconsin (3), Illinois (4), Iowa (5), Ohio State (7), Michigan State (7), Michigan (11), Indiana (play in), Rutgers (play in)
OVERVIEW: FUCK THE BIG10! This conference cost me so much money this year, and is the only conference I have been clueless on all year (and I am still clueless on how they got 9 bids). There are a few teams I like here in Purdue, Iowa, Indiana and Rutgers, while Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State (the blue hairs) are all fucking trash this year. Wisconsin is the one team that I can’t figure out at all ‘cause part of me wants to take Colgate to knock them off, but at the same token I can make an argument for them making it to the final 4 if they can put it together. Indiana and Rutgers are both playing in play-in games (meanwhile Michigan should be) and I like both these teams a lot to not only win their play-in game, but to win their next game after that too. Purdue has the talent to win the whole thing, Illinois can make a run if Cockburn can stay out of foul trouble and Iowa is one of the hottest teams in the country, so the BIG10 can actually see a team or two in the 3rd weekend, even though they don’t have a team ranked higher than a 3 seed out of the 9 bids. Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State will all be sent home early and I would actually be surprised if ANY OF THEM make it to the 2nd day (Oh, how the mighty have fallen). Overall, I think this is Purdue and Iowa that are the best hope to carry the torch for the conference, with Rutgers and Indiana having some nice underdog upside to make a little run. Everyone else I have no interest in and have them all exiting the tournament this weekend at some point, including Illinois.

PURDUE has it all offensively with a dominant front court with 7 foot 4 neanderthal Edey and the most underutilized big in the country Williams. They have the best guard in the country in Jaden Ivey and 3 absolute snipers from beyond the arc in Stefanovic, Gills and Hunter who shoot 39{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83}, 44{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} and 47{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83}, respectively, from 3! How is this team not the favorite to win it all? Well, the answer to that question comes on the other side of the ball, where Purdue ranks outside the top 100 in EVERY SINGLE MAJOR CATEGORY except free throws, where they rank in the top 10 in least free throws made and attempted by their opponents (but that is because you have to actually fucking guard someone to foul them). Jaden Ivey is a fucking freak, he is literally the most explosive and talented player in college basketball since Ja Morant, but as similar as he is to Ja Morant, he’s kinda like a concussed Ja Morant ‘cause he makes some REALLY bad decisions in big spots. Purdue will overpower Yale and should have enough to take out the winner of Texas/Va Tech, but a matchup with Kentucky will be a horrific one for them since they are soft, and Kentucky should just bully them all over the court. Purdue was the hands down best team in the country for a period of time, so if they can find a little bit of defense and Ivey goes God-mode, they can win it all, but unfortunately I think they get smacked by the Wildcats in the sweet 16.

WISCONSIN is confusing to me cause I think they suck, but somehow they win. Johnny Davis is a fucking monster, and they have some veteran talent around him, but they don’t do ANYTHING great, literally, ANYTHING. Wisconsin ranks outside the top 100 in almost every single offensive and defensive metric you can find, and they are outside the top 200 in a lot of them. They are a gritty team, with a stud guard and some decent pieces, but them being a 3 seed is a fucking joke, let alone them being a 3 seed in the weakest quadrant of the tournament AND PLAYING 2 HOME GAMES. Can they put it together and get out of a section with a bunch of overseeded teams and playing in their home state? YES! Will they? Who the fuck knows, I haven’t got these idiots right all year. I’m basically preparing to get blood-bathed on the bottom half of the midwest region.

ILLINOIS is coming off an embarrassing performance last year in the dance and I think they repeat that again this year. I know they have Kofi Cockburn (the only 20 and 10 guy in the country), Frazier, Plummer and some other nice pieces, but the problem is, Kofi is lazy. Don’t get me wrong, dude puts up numbers and is a FORCE in the middle, but defensively he may be the most overrated player in the country. This team will rely on him to be a monster, which is very realistic, but what’s also realistic is for Kofi to get himself in foul trouble, and if he leaves the floor, Illinois is in trouble. I’ve got Illinois handling Chattanooga, but don’t be surprised if they get knocked off. If they do handle their business day 1, I think they lose to Houston in their second game.

IOWA..ladies and gentlemen, meet the public’s favorite team. I haven’t heard one single show that didn’t have Iowa making it out of the first weekend, and have seen most shows putting them in the final 4. Listen, I get it, they are clutch, they are exciting and they just won the BIG10 tournament, but let’s be real here, who did they beat? They destroyed a complete garbage Northwestern team, then beat a Rutgers team, who I like, but is playing in a play-in game and then should have lost to Indiana 5 different times, but somehow won on a bank shot at the buzzer from 400 feet away. Basically up until this point, they hadn’t played a team in the top 30 in the country yet, before they faced Purdue in the championship, and although they won, Purdue looked like absolute shit and Bo Borowski (the most corrupt official in all of sports) CLEARLY was not gonna let Purdue win this game from the opening whistle. Iowa is a very good team, they are pretty hot and they are a sexy pick, but I think too many people are overrating them a bit. They are in the very soft midwest, so I get it, but I don’t think they get past Kansas, and maybe it’s my small school bias, but I would not be shocked if Richmond gave them a scare as a double digit dog day 1.

OHIO STATE…Boring, fuck em. There’s no reason to write much here ‘cause they are probably gonna get upset by Loyola and if they win they are DEFINITELY gonna lose to Villanova. Ohio State sucks, don’t waste your energy even thinking about them.

MICHIGAN STATE is meh, they’re fine, but nothing sexy about them. Sparty is 5-8 in their last 13 and somehow are a 7 seed? Fuck outta here! This team should be a 10 seed at best. They do a couple things well, they shoot the 3 well, they move the ball well, and they are obviously well coached, but outside of that they really are just another team. Michigan State is kinda like that girl at the bar who everyone would fuck, but no one really wants to. You know the girl I’m talking about. The one who’s kinda chubby with big boobs and a pretty cute face, but if you didn’t look for her you wouldn’t even notice she’s there. Yeah, that’s Michigan State. So if you wanna hit it and have ‘em win a game, and even knock off an overrated Duke team, I won’t hate ya for it, but I’m gonna pass them up for the sexy goth chick in the corner of the bar sneaking bumps under the table. You know the one. The smoke show wearing all black with the dark eyeliner, bangin’ body and a tattoo of a spider on her wrist. The one who will probably rock your world and suck the skin off your dick, but also could stab you and slash your tires if you don’t call her the next day. That tatted-up goth chick’s name is Davidson, and I’m not only taking her past Michigan State on day 1, but I am gonna call her back and take her to beat Duke on our second date. Hell, I might even wife her up and take her all the way to the elite 8, with this risk of her destroying my life and giving my whole west region gonorrhea. For any ladies reading that analogy, just replace the chubby chick with the broke-nice-guy at the bar who will treat you right and make you feel special, but isn’t that much to look at, and replace the psychotic goth chick with me. Make sense now? Ok, cool.

MICHIGAN. Fuck Michigan. That’s it, fuck Michigan. You really gonna make me write more about this team? FINE! Michigan has cost me more money this year than any team in college basketball history. They lose when they are supposed to win and win when they are supposed to lose, and they can’t string anything together all year. They may be the only team in the entire field who has not won 4 straight games ALL FUCKING YEAR (someone fact check that, I’m too lazy, plus it’s 4am and I’m running out of blow) and they only won 3 straight games ONCE! Michigan sucks (sorry Portnoy, don’t hate me) and they shouldn’t even be in the tournament. The only reason they are in is because their name is Michigan. THAT’S LITERALLY IT. Their best case scenario is 1 win cause Tennessee would skull-fuck them in their second game if they are lucky enough to make it there. You wanna take Michigan to beat Colorado State? Fine. But they’ve only won 2 games in a row twice since December 7th, so one win is the most I will allow you to do in your bracket here without open-palm-smacking you like Juwan Howard on a handshake line.

INDIANA is basically Iowa with a tougher draw. Indiana is the sexy pick for a double-digit seed to make it out of the first weekend and I don’t hate it at all. The only issue I have with it is that I love UCLA, so I can’t put them into next week, but I definitely have them winning the play-in game and then knocking off St. Mary’s after that. There is one reason and one reason only why Indiana is here and why they will steal a couple wins, his name is Trayce Jackson-Davis, and he is a man possessed right now! Indiana does have a strong defense and a couple nice pieces in addition to TJD, but I am betting on Trayce, and Trayce only, here to carry them to the weekend, where they will run into UCLA and get quickly disposed of.

RUTGERS, like every other BIG10 team, is weird. Rutgers beat Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin over a 4 game stretch, and also beat Purdue and Iowa earlier in the year, but they also have lost to Northwestern, UMass, DePaul and fucking Lafayette, who finished 10-20 and 7th place in the Patriot league. The reason I am willing to overlook some of the bad losses is ‘cause almost all of them came really early in the season, while most of the solid wins took place recently. Rutgers is a tough team, who paid the committee off by almost making the sweet 16 last year, so they are intriguing to do it again. Being from New Jersey I cannot bet on Rutgers games, therefore, I haven’t watched that many, ‘cause what kind of true degenerate is gonna waste a television on a game they don’t have money on, but from what I have seen of them, I like their chances to fuck some shit up. They have a tough matchup with Notre Dame on Wednesday, but if they win that, they face an Alabama team who is more spastic than a coked up monkey, so they can steal 2 wins here, and honestly maybe more. This whole section of the bracket is shit, so ANYONE can come out…why not Rutgers? The nice thing here is that their worst matchup is their first one on the play-in game with Notre Dame, so you will be able to put your bracket in after that game.

CONFERENCE: MOUNTAIN WEST

BIDS: 4
TEAMS: Colorado State (6), San Diego State (8), Boise State (9), Wyoming (play-in)
OVERVIEW: I have watched more Mountain West basketball this year than anyone in America, mainly because they are always playing late at night when nothing else is on and I don’t sleep. Unlike the BIG10, this conference has been one of the most profitable conferences for me all year and I think all 4 of these guys can win a game, but they all have some pretty tough draws, especially in their second games if they get a win. I don’t really see anyone making it to next weekend from here, but these teams are tough and can all steal a dub.

COLORADO STATE is 25-5, and if you think they are just another small school benefiting from avoiding the big guys, you are wrong. The Mountain West is probably considered a mid-major, or at least they were, but they are closer to a power 5 now than a mid-major in my opinion, and that is validated with 4 bids, which is 1 more than the Pac-12 and 1 less than the ACC. This conference is good, and Colorado State may be the best team of all of them. Colorado State went UNDEFEATED in their non-conference schedule and knocked off some tournament teams (Creighton by 14 and St. Mary’s by 16) on their way to an 11-0 start to the season and a top 20 ranking. This team is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country, ranking in the top 20 in effective field goal {7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83}, free throw {7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83}, two point {7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83}, overall shooting {7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83}, turnovers per game and shooting efficiency! They aren’t “great” defensively, but they are good enough to keep the game close enough for their offense to close games out. The other thing they have, which I love, is a serial killer, and his name is David Roddy, who averages 19.4 pts, 7.6 rebounds and shoots 46{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} from three. Roddy is the type of player who can have a magical run and send this team way further than they should go, but at worst he will put himself on the national map with a big win over Michigan on day 1. One of my favorite teams in the tournament is Tennessee and Colorado State runs into them in game two, so their run may be short, but if they do nothing more than send this bitch-ass Michigan team home early, they will have done their part to make the whole country love them.

BOISE STATE is another team I love, that just got a shit draw, ‘cause the committee hates the Mountain West. Boise is 27-7, but unlike Colorado State, they struggled in their non-conference games with some bad losses early. Boise turned it around and went 23-3 after back to back bad losses to St. Louis and Bakersfield early in the year, en route to winning the Mountain West Championship and comin’ in hot. Unlike CSU, they lean more on the defensive side of the ball and lack some offense, which makes for an interesting matchup against a Memphis team that you can turn over and frustrate at times. I think they are a nice team, and this should be a good game with Memphis, but overall I don’t think they have the boost to run out on Memphis when they go thru their lulls, making them a one-and-done for me.

SAN DIEGO STATE is a great defensive team, with a lot of older players, making them a dangerous tournament team. SDSU is 2nd in the nation in PPG allowed and top 7 in opponents’ effective FG {7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83}, opponents’ 2pt {7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83}, opponents’ overall shooting {7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83}, opponents’ shooting efficiency and opponents’ FG made per game…that’s a lot of things to be top 7 in! The issue is that they are ranked 200th or worse in every one of those categories on the offensive side of the ball! SDSU wants to play a low-scoring, grind out game, and they face Creighton who dropped 85 and 48 consecutively in their last 2 games, so basically if SDSU can control the pace, they will win, but if Creighton gets hot from 3, they don’t have the offense to get back in the game. This is a tough one to cap, but I am leaning Creighton by a hair. Either way, Kansas should have their way with the winner here.

WYOMING is a very odd team to handicap, because they don’t do anything great, but they play really hard and are really well coached. Unlike the rest of the teams from this conference, they are balanced and dominate one side of the ball and suck on the other, so they have managed to stock-pile wins by being consistent and sticking to what they do best. Their 3-point shooting percentage is terrible, while their 2-point shooting percentage is top 20{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} in the country. They aren’t going to outscore you and they aren’t sexy, but with the right matchup, they can grind you out in the post and make your day hell. Unfortunately for them, this is not the right matchup, and they will exit before Thursday to Indiana, who just happens to have a guy who does what Wyoming tries to do, but better.

CONFERENCE: Pac-12

BIDS: 3
TEAMS: Arizona (1), UCLA (4), USC (7)
OVERVIEW: The Pac-12 sucks, but Arizona and UCLA are lethal in this bracket. USC is complete fucking trash and the main concern here is whether Arizona and UCLA are a little overrated due to a weak conference. These teams are in the hardest and 2nd-hardest regions, but I think they both can dance on the final weekend. Arizona is the chalk pick to make it to the finals, while UCLA is the team everyone is overlooking. I personally think both make it out of the first weekend, but it is UCLA and not Arizona who makes it to the Elite 8. As I said earlier, USC sucks, but they are in a soft section of the bracket, so maybe they can steal a game or two…actually…no, they suck.

ARIZONA is most likely going to rival Gonzaga to be the most popular national champion if what I am seeing on the internet correlates to your pool. They are a very good team who does everything well, especially on offense. Their metrics are off the charts on the offensive side of the ball and very good on the defensive side too, and they will UNDOUBTEDLY be the metrics darlings dream team and the team that most of your sharpest friends have as the champion on their brackets. So why am I not putting them in the finals? Because I personally feel their metrics are inflated due to playing in a DOG SHIT conference all year with nothing but overrated teams who suck. Listen, they are 31-3 and don’t have a bad loss on their resume’, but that win over a then #4 ranked Michigan team doesn’t look so sexy anymore, and in their 2 real non-conference tests, they edged out Illinois and lost to Tennessee. It’s not that I don’t think they are great, they definitely are, and have a ton of NBA talent on their roster, I just don’t think they have been tested. UCLA had them down 12 in the 2nd half of the championship game and then completely collapsed, scoring 5 points in 10 minutes, which inevitably let Arizona back in and led to a Wildcat championship. I am just not as impressed with them as everyone else, but won’t knock ya if you have them winning it all. I just personally think they are that really hot chick at the bar with the perfect everything who seems incredible, until you get her in bed and find out she can’t fuck. I’ve got them losing to Houston next weekend.

UCLA…if Arizona is the smoke show who can’t fuck, UCLA is the old sexy MILF who’s hangin on by a thread, but knows every trick in the book to make you shoot quicker than the kid in American Pie. Arizona you will never regret, but they may underwhelm, while UCLA will rock your world and not even need a call back. UCLA is coming off an amazing run to last year’s final 4 and has the same core back this year. They are extremely efficient on both sides of the ball and have 4 guys who can kill you to end games in Tiger, Juzang, Jaquez and Bernard. NO ONE will have UCLA to win it all, no one except me that is! I have had Kentucky all year as my winner, but they have underwhelmed me of late, so I am making a hard pivot to a team which is unfortunately in the same region. If you want a little added “conspiracy” tip, the Rams won the Super Bowl from L.A. with the same colors as UCLA and Ukraine, and UCLA shares the same colors and the same city as the Rams. Something to think about.

USC. USC sucks. I have said all year this team fucking sucks and OF COURSE they don’t get matched up with a team I love in either of their first 2 games, so I can comfortably knock them off, but I’m gonna do it anyway. I don’t love Miami, but they are good enough to beat USC, and I think they do. That’s all I’m writing about the Trojans, because they are about as sexy as a girl telling you you need to put a condom on (get it, Trojans, condom…I’ll see myself out).

CONFERENCE: SEC

BIDS: 6
TEAMS: Kentucky (2), Auburn (2), Tennessee (3), Arkansas (4), LSU (6), Alabama (6)
OVERVIEW: This may be the most overrated conference in all of basketball. Kentucky is very good, Tennessee is maybe the hottest team in America, but outside of that, there is just a bunch of erratic disasters who can beat anyone and lose to anyone on any given day, and those are teams we try to avoid in brackets unless they are lower seeds. Kentucky and Tennessee can DEFINITELY both win it all. Auburn is a fraud, Arkansas is good, but tough to trust, LSU is a good team in a GREAT SPOT IN THE BRACKET, so they could fuck some shit up, and Alabama somehow scores 80 points a game even though they can’t shoot…so figure that out.

KENTUCKY was my pick to win it all mid-season, and I still think they can, but the main reason I was so high on them was because Calipari teams always just keep getting better throughout the season, so when I saw where they were at a couple months ago, I just assumed that by this time they would be twice as good. The problem I ran into here was I forgot to factor in that this is the oldest team Cal has ever had, so that whole Freshmen evolving thing doesn’t apply here. I want to reiterate, Kentucky is my 2nd favorite team to win it all and I have a futures bet on them, but after watching Ty Ty Washington disappear in a couple of big games, I am not as confident. Kentucky is gonna bully and grind on both sides of the ball, but it all comes down to whether Ty Ty decides to show up, and if Tshiebwe can stay out of foul trouble. The bottom line is I think the winner of UCLA/Kentucky can win the natty, and I am definitely alone in that opinion.

AUBURN has choked out every big opportunity to prove they aren’t a fraud all year, and I have been on the opposing team’s moneyline every single time, including taking the Aggies against them in the SEC tournament. Since getting knocked off of their #1 ranking, Auburn has lost to 2 NCAA tournament teams, lost to 2 other teams that didn’t get a bid, and beat ZERO teams in the field of 68 in their last 10 games. This team is dangerous for sure, and they have possibly the best player in the country in Jabari Smith, but I don’t really love anything else about them. The one thing that can save them is that their whole quadrant of the bracket sucks outside of LSU and the fact that Wisconsin is playing at home (which no one understands). They can make it a few games, but they have a better chance of losing in the first weekend than they do of playing in the last one in my opinion.

TENNESSEE is dat dude. Find a hotter team in America…I’ll wait. They are a 3 seed which is FUCKING RETARDED since they are a top 5 team in the country right now, but this stupid fuckin’ committee decided to IGNORE RECENT FORM when seeding for some ridiculous reason. UT made a mockery of the SEC tournament and is possibly the best defensive team in the country. The Vols are on fire and peaking at the exact time you need to be. It’s going to take a pretty impressive effort to knock them off this weekend, but Colorado State has an outside chance to do that, since they are so efficient offensively, but I think it’s not gonna be until Nova when they get truly tested. The winner of the Nova/UT games makes the final 4, book it.

ARKANSAS is a team a lot of people are going to pick to come out of the first weekend, but I’m going to do what I did in the conference tournament and take the dog on the moneyline against them. I love this Vermont team and I don’t trust Arkansas. They can’t shoot and don’t do anything great, but everyone fuckin’ loves them and I don’t understand why. They are exciting, they can slash and they can score, and they have a phenomenal talent in Notae, but I think it’s an early exit for the Razorbacks here, who will struggle with Vermont, if not lose, and then get knocked off by UConn if they slip past. This section of the region is a gauntlet with Gonzaga, Memphis, UConn and a tough draw with Vermont.

LSU is my sneaky Elite 8 team no one else will have. I have said 100 times I hate this region and this is the soft section of the softest region and I need to find a team to shock the world, and who better than an LSU team. LSU plays HARD, like REAL HARD! If they were a girl, you would 100{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} need a safe word. LSU is like a swarm of bees defensively and they have 5 or 6 guys who can get buckets, with Tari Eason being the main one. Don’t get it twisted, there’s warts here too, mainly the fact that they can’t shoot, lol. I know I knocked some other squads that were low efficiency offensive teams, but this is one team that I am okay with because they make up for it by causing complete and utter havoc on the defensive side of the ball, justified by them leading the country in steals. The one thing everyone is worried about is the loss of Wade, their coach, who was fired Saturday due to his 500,000th NCAA violation in 5 years. Wade has had more legal issues during his tenure at LSU than Pac Man Jones. I am not overly concerned with Wade’s absence since defense travels and you don’t need to coach it much. The only change will be on the offensive side of the ball where, honestly, they can probably use a change. I truly think the loss of Wade could potentially help this team, but either way, I need a team with upside to break thru this shitty segment of the region, so LSU, I choose you.

ALABAMA was one of my favorite teams for the last couple years, but this year they are fuckin’ retarded. Alabama is the perfect example of why recency needs to be calculated into the equation. Everyone is talking about these “quality wins” that Alabama has to offset their 19-13 record, but no one is factoring in that most of them were in 2021. Bama came out the gate white hot and knocked off Houston and Gonzaga in back to back games, then knocked off Tennessee 3 games later, but all of that was 2 months ago. Since the calendar flipped their only really impressive win was against Baylor who had just recently lost their best player, Cryer, and for some reason in that game, I don’t remember why, Mayer only played 17 minutes. Bottom line is this team peaked early and is limping in, going 10-10 in their last 20 and losing 3 straight coming in, but somehow the committee decided they deserved a 6 seed cause they did some cool shit in December. I am not buying it and I will be taking the winner of the play-in game, who I hope is Rutgers, to knock them off, while everyone else is picking them to beat Duke as a long shot Elite 8 team.

CONFERENCE: WCC

BIDS: 3
TEAMS: Gonzaga (1), St. Mary’s (5), San Francisco (10)
OVERVIEW: Coming into the season I was really excited about the WCC, and they started off hot, but as the season wore on, they began to disappoint. Gonzaga is the class of the conference obviously, and probably the consensus favorite to win the chip, but I will not be picking them. St. Mary’s is a good team and San Fran had a nice year, but I don’t see either making it out of the first weekend. Overall, we just wait for the Gonzaga implosion and laugh at the people who took ‘em to win it all.

GONZAGA is the #1 overall seed and I have zero interest in them winning it all, you know why? CAUSE GONZAGA NEVER WINS THE CHIP, AND THEY ARE ALWAYS A 1 SEED! FUCKING STOP PICKING THEM PEOPLE! STOP! They are the “2020-2022 Naomi Osaka” of March Madness where people just refuse to accept they are just never gonna win. Their non conference schedule is the best way to judge them every year and this year they beat Texas (who had a whole roster of transfers who never played together), beat the snot out of UCLA (which was very impressive), lost to Duke (which seems even worse now), lost to Alabama by double digits, beat Texas Tech and were in a DOG-FIGHT with Tarleton State who was a D2 team just a couple years ago. So you tell me what out of that is supposed to have me super excited? Now factor in the fact that EVERY, FUCKING, YEAR they choke, and I will let you guys pick them to win it all, ‘cause I will not. They do have a very beatable region and it’s tough to find a team that can knock them off if Memphis doesn’t do it, so I may actually just eat the chalk and advance them to the final 4, or I may have them losing to Memphis or UCONN – you will have to sign up to find out. Throw the analytics out the window on this one and trust the decade-long trend…Gonzaga isn’t winning it all, and if they make a final 4 run, it’s only ‘cause they got fed a weak region.

ST. MARY’S is that old guy at the gym playing with the young guys and somehow locking up the 22-year-old and nailing hook shots in the lane over him on the other end. Every time I watch this team I wonder how they win, but they do, including a win just a couple weeks ago over Gonzaga. St. Mary’s is a nice team to bet on ‘cause they always beat the teams they are supposed to beat. If you look at their non conference, they won every game versus decent teams and lost to Colorado State, Wisconsin, and San Diego State, who are all good teams. Like the old guy at the gym, they are gonna make you lose, so if you don’t fuck up, you will beat them, but if you slip up even the slightest bit, they will make you pay. St. Mary’s can definitely surprise some people, but Indiana and UCLA are 2 bad matchups for the Gaels, so one-and-done barring a Wyoming upset over IU.

SAN FRAN has had a really nice year and has some electric guards in Shabazz and Bouyea (4 of their 5 leading scorers are guards, which bodes well for this tournament), but I think the buzz around them stems more from the Kenpom hype than anything else. ALL FUCKING YEAR all I saw on Twitter was how strong of a Kenpom team San Fran was, and all they did all year was let these morons down with a 13-18 record ATS. Listen, San Fran is a nice team with a nice story, but they are not a top 20 team in the country like Kenpom says hahaha. I respect the Kenpom rankings, but I respect my own rankings more, and they have been WAY OFF on the WCC this year with SF at 20 and Mary’s at 16…..The real number is Mary’s at 28 and San Fran at 35, so relax. Murray State knocks off SF on the first day.

OTHER FAVORITE TEAMS NOT MENTIONED ABOVE:

MURRAY STATE (10) is a scary fuckin team. Murray is 30-2 and their last loss was December 22nd, and that was to Auburn. These dudes fucking RAN THROUGH the Ohio Valley have 2 assassins in KJ Williams and Tevin Brown and they were here just 2 years ago with Ja Morant, and were both getting big minutes then, so they have experience. I am shocked they matched them up with a smaller school like SF, they NEVER DO THAT, but Murray state is the reason I am going with UCLA over Kentucky to win it all, cause I think they can beat the cats and POSSIBLY make it all the way out of the 2nd weekend! DO NOT SLEEP ON THESE GUYS, THEY ARE REALLY FUCKING GOOD.

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (13) is a team to watch and they face Providence game 1 and I think they knock ’em off. Remember like 45 seconds ago when I told you Murray State was a scary team? Well this team is just as fucking scary. Holding a record of 30-4, they haven’t lost since December 15th and are the #2 SCORING TEAM IN THE NATION at 85.5 pts per game. This team fucking RAINS THREES at at a 44{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} clip, tops in the nation, and has an ungodly 59.7{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} effective field goal percentage. Granted their conference is not that great, and their defense is beyond suspect, but you fuck around and go cold on the court and you will be playing uphill the rest of the way! You want a fun longshot team that can get hot and reel off a couple wins as a 13 seed? These are your guys.

LOYOLA (10) is basically the same team every year, not to mention they have almost their whole team back from a sweet 16 run last year. You don’t need to know much here outside of, take them vs Ohio State and they have a shot vs Nova. I don’t think they can get past Nova, but if they do, I wouldn’t be floored. They should be a 7-8 seed, so ignore the number next to their name.

VERMONT(13) is gonna be a team I pick to win a game. Vermont is usually in the tournament because they play in a shit conference, but they do BEAT THE EVER LIVING SHIT out of the teams in their conference with the 4th highest margin of victory in the country and are top 5 in almost every offensive shooting efficiency category in the nation. The big thing about Vermont is they have 2 killers at the top with Davis and Shungu who both average over 16 pts a game and both shoot over 41{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} from 3. Arkansas better watch their ass, cause these 2 kids are no joke.

COLGATE (14) is bringing most of their squad back from last years march madness squad and they, like SDSU, fucking RAIN THREES shooting over 40{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} as a team, 2nd in the nation, and you know we love teams that can rain in March. Problem here is they have to play a road game against Wisconsin who gets to play in Milwaukee for some fucking reason. I am probably gonna pull the trigger on Colgate anyway since I got LSU advancing anyway, but I am really pissed at the location of this game.

UAB (12) is a squad we have made a nice chunk of money betting on this year and they got a 5’10 serial killer in Jordan Walker who dropped 93 points in 3 games to lead them to a conference championship! I fuckin love this kid, we love 12 seeds, but they are running into an EXTREMELY UNDERSEEDED buzzsaw in Houston, so unfortunately we will not have the luxury of watching Jordan Walker run thru some overrated BIG10 teams, which is a major fuck up by the committee.

CHATTANOOGA (13) don’t sleep on this matchup, I know it seems David vs Goliath, but I don’t know if Illinois is really that good. Chattanooga has exactly what you want in a Cinderella team, 2 killers at the top who both rain from 3. Malachi Smith is a killer and Baptiste and Desousa are fun compliments to him. I think I may be going with the Mocs in this one since I have Illinois losing to Houston anyway.

WRIGHT STATE (play in) Wright state got fucked here, cause they deserved better than the play in game leading into the Lion’s mouth of Arizona, but that’s ok cause at least it gives us a game to bet them. Wright state has been very good to me this year, including securing us multiple wins in the conference tourney and a +260 future. i am telling you this right now, you will love to watch this team if you haven’t already. They have 3 killers in Holden, Basile and Calvin and I love them to get a win in the play-in game and MAYBE hang with Arizona early, before their length smothers them.

BRYANT (play in) is the last team I wanted to play Wright State in a play-in game because they have the most important ingredient of any small school in the country, the leading scorer in the nation. Peter Kiss has dropped 30+ in 7 of his last 10 games and can carry a team to victory by himself, but on top of that they have Charles Pride who also averages 18+ a game. Outside of thes 2 guys everyone else pretty much sucks, and they don’t have much to offer down low, but this team is dangerous and this Bryant Wright State game is gonna be a fun one.

TEXAS SOUTHERN vs TEXAS A&M CC (play in) this game kicks off the field of 68 and should be a fairly close game. I lean Southern in this one in large part due to them beating Florida early in the year and hanging with Washington and St Mary’s. CC made us some money this year, but they really don’t do anything that well offensively, ranking over 250 in almost every offensive efficiency category. Sharp money has been pounding Texas Southern since the line dropped moving this line from -1.5, to -3.5, so go with Southern and then watch them get shit stomped by Kansas a couple days later.

AKRON (13) is a fun squad to watch and root for, with 3 or 4 guys who can take over a game, I am just not sure it will translate vs a team like UCLA. Bottomline, this is a bad matchup for a good team, another poor job by the committee.

NEW MEXICO STATE (12) is a good team that has a lot of experience in the big dance, but again, another 12 who got matched up with a team I am pretty high on, so I can’t sign off on the upset here, even though I like their squad.

MONTANA STATE (14) actuallyyyyyyyyy may have a shot here. I know everyone loves Texas tech, but they have been terrible on the road, and Montana state grades well in almost every shooting {7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} metric. I don’t think they win, but whenever you get a team with a 5’7’ serial killer at the point, on a team where every single starter shoots at least 34{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} from 3 and at least 72{7cfdf048d63d1634c4ebc39e44c17f1aa9d4d8c4f009b1c668289627fc77fa83} from the line, vs a favorite that has struggled on the road and neutral sites all year…you got a live dog. All they need to do is stay close early and we could have a scare here. Or they can lose by 30 and that fuckin midget gets shut stomped out.

TEAMS THAT ARE NOT WORTH WRITING MORE THAN A SENTENCE

YALE (14) is a cool story, but I don’t think these nerds have what it takes to bang with Purdue. They may cover, but they aren’t winning.

LONGWOOD (14) they can shoot the 3, but they are running into a buzz saw in Tennessee

Fullerton (15) Fullerton knocked off my beloved Long Beach St team, so I guess they have a chance in hell vs Duke, since I would’ve picked the beach vs Duke.

NORFOLK ST (16) we made some money off them this year, but nah brah.

GEORGIA STATE (16) Gonzaga may get knocked off, but it ain’t gonna be here

DELAWARE (15) nova is too solid and well coached to get knocked off this early

ST PETERS (15) St Peters isn’t that good, Kentucky gonna roll them.

JACKSONVILLE ST (15) fuck Jax St. I loved this Bellarmine team, we bet them +950 to win the conference, they win the conference and aren’t allowed in cause they just moved up from D2 2 years ago, so Jax st got in by default. Jax St sucks.

SECTION 4: QUICK REGIONAL CHEAT SHEET

These are not necessarily MY teams I am picking, this is just a cheat sheet of teams I think are potential sleepers in the region. You will notice sometimes I have 2 teams who are playing each other as sleepers, that is usually because I think the winner of that game can beat the next team they play, no matter who it is. You will have to sign up at 4deepbets.com for my official final picks and bracket.

MIDWEST REGION: This region is soft as fuck and has turned Kansas into a Final Four favorite. The bottom of this bracket is a fucking disaster with NOT ONE TEAM that i love, but 3 of the most overseeded teams in the tournament in Auburn, Wisconsin and USC. Wisconsin has a home game, which is bullshit, so they have an edge here, but I a, getting weird at the bottom. The top of the region is a lot tougher, but I still think Kansas is the class of the region. Iowa will be a popular pick and every team at the top here could surprise people.

Strength: 4 of 4
Vegas Favorite: Kansas
Final 4 Sleepers: Iowa, LSU
Elite 8 Sleepers: Miami, Iowa, South Dakota St, Richmond
Sweet 16 Sleepers: Miami, South Dakota St, Richmond
1st Round Sleepers: South Dakota St., Richmond, Colgate

WEST REGION: They are doing everything in their power to get Gonzaga a Natty, but I actually think Memphis and UCONN can knock them off. The bottom of this region is a shit show with an overrated Duke team and a bunch of other teams that are overseeded in Alabama, who should be a 9 seed and Texas Tech who cant win on the road. I think Davidson has a legitimate shot to get out of this half of the bracket and this could make or break my March.

Strength: 3 of 4
Vegas Favorite: Gonzaga
Final 4 Sleepers: Memphis, UCONN
Elite 8 Sleepers: Davidson, Memphis
Sweet 16 Sleepers: Davidson, Memphis, Rutgers
1st Round Sleepers: Vermont, Rutgers

EAST REGION: The east is strong, with even a lot of the lower seeded teams being blue bloods on down years who can always make a run. I love Baylor, but they are just so banged up I can’t pull the trigger. Kentucky was my champion a few weeks ago, but I have flipped to a veteran UCLA team. Virginia Tech, Indiana and Murray State are all teams that could put the glass slipper on here. This region should be VERY interesting.

Strength: 2 of 4
Vegas Favorite: Baylor
Final 4 Sleepers: UCLA
Elite 8 Sleepers: UCLA, Virginia T ech
Sweet 16 Sleepers: Virginia Tech, Indiana, Murray State
1st Round Sleepers: Virginia Tech, Indiana

SOUTH REGION: This region may not be as deep as the East, but it has 4 teams I legitimately think can win it all. Arizona is the sexy pick nationwide, Tennessee is the hottest team in America and completely under-seeded, Villanova does everything well and has the best coach in the nation and tons of senior leadership and Houston is a major darkhorse who I am obsessed with. This region has 3 of the top 7 Kenpom teams in it, with Nova being the 4th in the top 11. I don’t think there will be many upsets here early, but I do think this is gonna be a FUCKING BATTLE FIELD come next weekend.

Strength: 1 of 4
Vegas Favorite: Arizona
Final 4 Sleepers: Houston, Tennessee
Elite 8 Sleepers: Houston
Sweet 16 Sleepers: Loyola, Colorado St
1st Round Sleepers: Loyola, Chattanooga, UAB

SECTION 5: SEEDING

FAVORITE TEAMS BY SEED

GONZAGA
KENTUCKY
TENNESSEE
UCLA
HOUSTON
LSU
MURRAY STATE
BOISE
MEMPHIS
DAVIDSON
VIRGINIA TECH
INDIANA/WYOMING
SOUTH DAKOTA ST
COLGATE
FULLERTON
WRIGHT ST/BRYANT

LEAST FAVORITE TEAMS BY SEED

BAYLOR
AUBURN
WISCONSIN
PROVIDENCE
ST MARYS
ALABAMA
USC
SETON HALL
TCU
SAN FRAN
MICHIGAN
NEW MEXICO ST
CHATTANOOGA
YALE
ST PETERS
GEORGIA ST

SECTION 6: MY TOP 5’s (in order)

NATIONAL CHAMPIONS:

UCLA
KENTUCKY
VILLANOVA
TENNESSEE
ARIZONA

OVERRATED TEAMS

DUKE
AUBURN
USC
ALABAMA
PROVIDENCE

SEEDS 4-10

UCLA
HOUSTON
MEMPHIS
MURRAY STATE
DAVIDSON

SEEDS 11-16

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
RICHMOND
INDIANA
VERMONT
COLGATE

SECTION 7: HOFFMAN’S GUIDE (SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)

Coming Soon

SECTION 8: FUTURES BETS (SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)

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SECTION 9: DAILY BETS (SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)

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