Price’s 2024 Cognizant Classic DFS Breakdown
This week they head down to what used to be The Honda Classic at PGA National, but due to lack of stars consistently playing, Honda decided to pull their sponsorship and now whatever the new company is for this season gets to debut their brand with a pretty solid field. Rory headlines this week, and we have a bunch of previous winners here returning along with some DFS darlings. DraftKings decided to keep the pricing tiers where they drop the minimum price down to $5000, so it opens up the ways to build differently and fit top end guys again. I expect this style of pricing to be the new norm moving forward. This is a tough track, the Bear Trap will eat most of their lunches in a tough three-hole stretch from holes 15-17. They turned the second hardest hole that was a tough par 4 into a short par 5, so the course should play slightly easier, but there are projected 15 MPH winds Friday, and in the past, we have seen windy conditions just bring carnage here. Typically the chalk dies at this course, but we have seen chalk be elite for the last year or so, so I think we just mix and match it up. All prices listed are for DraftKings.
$9K+:
- Rory – He will be the chalkiest golfer. His style of play fits this course, plus he is the best and most talented golfer in the field. I am writing him up because it is crazy not to, but I am crazy and fading him in single lineup or 1-3 max builds.
- Henley – My preferred spend up, he has elite history here with a win and multiple top 10’s and has looked solid to start the year. If he can continue to gain strokes with his short game, specifically putting, he will win this season.
- Poston – I am a sucker for Poston, and even though he ruined my week at the Waste Management, it was because he had a historically bad round putting on Friday and was over six strokes worse than his median.
- Sungjae – This is more of a gut play, because the stats are not there. He has a win here and three other cuts made in the last five years. He will be pretty unowned for it being Sungjae, and I want to be early on him at low ownership rather than wait and see him pop off at 25% owned when his game gets back to clicking.
- Kirk – Kirk has a 25th, seventh, and win here the last three years they have played this tourney. He had looked good this season until a MC at the Genesis, but he is looking fairly popular and checks the boxes.
- Berger – My heart still hurts from his utter collapse two years ago going into Sunday with a five-shot lead, but this guy is good at golf and has had a few tune ups coming in after a year off and a couple top 30 finishes to knock the rust off.
- Mitchell – Mitchell would have been in contention last week if not for his horrendous first four holes Thursday, where he started five over. He has a win here, a ninth place finish a few years ago, and has back to back top 19 finishes on tour coming in.
$7,500-$8,900:
- Jaeger – He has an okay history here, and has very solid results this new season with two third place finishes in his last three tournaments played.
- Pavon – Pavon was money for us at the Farmers, then followed that up with a third at Pebble before taking a few weeks off. He has four made cuts to start the year with three finishes of seventh or better.
- Hossler – Decent history here, has been awesome this season while making all five cuts, he also had two top 10’s in the fall swing before they kicked off the west coast swing for the new calendar year season.
- Noren – Noren is a guy I target in tournaments where you need to grind out par. He has not missed a cut to start the season and he has two made cuts in a row here with a fifth place finish his last time out at PGA National.
- Svensson – He will be kind of popular for his price point, but he is coming off a 10th place finish his last time out and he finished ninth here two years ago.
- Todd – Todd has looked solid this season, making every cut, and he has made the cut here the only time he played in the last five years. I think he is a good pivot from Svensson if your lineup is chalky.
- Bezuidenhout – Bez has been gaining strokes on approach like crazy lately, which has led to finishes of 28th or better in four of his last five events played. He is also 2/2 making the cut here.
- Hubbard – Hubbard has made the cut here four years in a row with two finishes 12th or better, and he has made every cut to start this season.
$5,000-$7,400:
- Schenk – He is the definition of hit or miss, as he has alternated finishing top 40 and missing the cut here the last five years, To start this season, he has three top 30 finishes mixed in with two missed cuts and a 49th. He is going to be like 5% owned at best.
- McNealy – Mav is my favorite cheap $7k guy this week, he has rounded into form after coming back from injury and has four made cuts in a row, including a sixth and 13th in his last two tourneys played.
- Ghim – This is the NBA equivalent of a shooter doing a heat check. Awful course history, and three top 13 finishes in a row coming in on some of the tougher courses they have played this season.
- Thompson – Thompson was chalk last week at $8900, and now looks to be forgotten about at $6800. He has been solid to start the year and is coming off of three top 25 finishes in his last four events played.
- Griffin – Ben finished 21st here last year, and has five made cuts in six tourneys played leading up. He will be like 3% owned and is a nice value play.
- Young – Carson will be one of more popular cheap plays, because he finished 29th here last year and is coming off an eighth place finish last week. He also has made four cuts in a row leading up to this event.
- Valimaki – Sami knocked on the door last week, went down $100 in salary and nobody is going to play him again. I think we see him rebound nicely after giving it a run last week, as he has had success on the DP World Tour and been close over there as well.
- Hodges – Lee showed some life last time out at the Genesis, where his irons were fire, and he has a 14th and a ninth place finish in his last two times here, he is a good value play.
- Novak – Novak comes in with back to back eighth place finishes on tour, and he finished 29th here last year. At $5900, he is a good value to fill out your lineup.
- Martin – He has mediocre form on the season, but finished fifth here last year. If we get good Ben Martin, he will T30 and pay off.
- Cauley – I am going back to the well here, and at $5500, Cauley is too cheap with the good history he has here. He knocked off the rust at the WMPO and would have finished T30 if he did not blow up on his second-to-last hole.
- Parker Coody – This one is based on his talent and form coming in where he has finished T25 his last two events played. He is not accurate off the tee, which is scary here, but he got familiar with the course last year as an amateur and now comes in off a 24th place finish last week.
