Hoffman’s Favorite NFL Week 6 Touchdown Bets
Here are my favorite touchdown prop bets and the book with the best line for each in Week 6 of the NFL. Come hang out in Discord and tag me (@Hoffman) with any questions.
1pm Slate:
- 49ers at Browns
- Christian McCaffrey -170 (DraftKings) – CMC is going for the record of consecutive weeks with a touchdown and has scored in 14 straight games. Keep riding the MVP of the league thus far.
- Panthers at Dolphins
- Raheem Mostert -175 (Caesars) – Achane is now on IR which just means more Mostert. Look for the Dolphins to be in a favorable game script all day and have many Red Zone offensive possessions for Mostert to get in the end zone.
- Jaylen Waddle +130 (Caesars) – Waddle has not received much hype this year due to the RBs and Tyreke Hill’s success through the first five games. I think with Achane out, it benefits Waddle’s short passing routes. Look for Tua to hit him on quick hits, especially in the Red Zone on plays which would have gone to Achane.
- Vikings at Bears
- Justin Fields +160 (FanDuel) – Fields has been playing well in recent weeks and gets another favorable matchup at home this week. I think he uses his legs more this week with the lack of RB depth the Bears have this week.
- TJ Hockenson +175 (PointsBet) – Justin Jefferson landed on the IR, which I think opens up a lot of Hockenson targets, especially in the Red Zone.
- Seahawks at Bengals
- Kenneth Walker +104 (Caesars) – Walker is just a beast and the way to attack Cincy is on the ground. Walker should see some Red Zone work in this one and I expect this game to pace up with points, so Walker should account for some of them.
- Ja’Marr Chase +100 (FanDuel) – Ever since Chase said he is always open, he has been always open and I expect that to continue this week. He does have a tough matchup with rookie sensation Devon Witherspoon, but I think Chase gets the better of that matchup, especially since DK Metcalf spiced it up a little saying Spoon is going to get the better of Chase. Pissing Chase off is never good. He and Burrow are finally clicking and I think they are ready to take off and string together a nice win streak here.
- Joe Mixon -124 (Caesars) – You know the drill, one of Scarface’s favorite plays, Mixon, at home, and I agree. Mixon is always a great play at home and could score multiple times in this matchup. There is always a game Mixon breaks the slate and pops off for multiple scores and this could very well be that spot.
- Colts at Jaguars
- Michael Pittman +200 (FanDuel) – Pittman ate vs. the Jags in the first matchup and I expect more of the same. The Jags are coming back from two weeks in London, which could lead to some lag. Look for Pittman to have another big game.
- Travis Etienne -105 (PointsBet) – Getting bell cow work. Bigsby vulturing a TD is always a concern, but Etienne’s volume is too high to ignore. If the Jags are going to continue to give him this volume, he should see the End Zone.
- Commanders at Falcons
- Kyle Pitts +320 (PointsBet) – The Falcons are trying to get Pitts involved as much as possible. Gotta keep going to him, especially at home.
- Drake London +250 (FanDuel) – Ridder at home is a different animal and he should look to push the ball downfield and look for London to be the recipient and I see him breaking one for a TD in this one. The Falcons are just different at home.
- Logan Thomas +290 (PointsBet) – Target monster for Howell. Dominates the middle of the field and in the Red Zone. The Falcons are also not good vs. the TE, so this is a great spot for Thomas.
- Saints at Texans
- Dameon Pierce +155 (DraftKings) – Pierce has been slowly coming into his own in recent weeks and I think he continues to get most of the Red Zone work, especially in the Goal to Go scenarios. Look for him to see the end zone.
- Alvin Kamara -105 (DraftKings) – Kamara is just so dynamic and got another week of practice under his belt. Only means good things, which includes touchdowns. Could be in line for multiple scores.
4pm Slate:
- Patriots at Raiders
- Patriots D/ST +800 (FanDuel) – Last season the Pats D was the most profitable defense betting wise. I look for them to step up in this matchup and get some points on the board to give the offense some life in a game I actually think the Patriots can win somehow.
- Davante Adams +120 (PointsBet) – Davante Adams is just a monster to deal with and presents all kind of problems. Jimmy G is also peppering Adams with targets. The Pats’ corners are thin right now due to injury, so this is a good spot for Adams to take advantage of mismatches and get in the end zone.
- Eagles at Jets
- Jalen Hurts -115 (FanDuel) – Every week the Eagles somehow have multiple Goal to Go scenarios from the one-yard-line and they punch it in with the Brotherly Shove, which they have perfected.
- D’Andre Swift +115 (FanDuel) – If Hurts isn’t scoring, it’s Swift, safe to bet both with at least one minimum in line to score every week.
- Garrett Wilson +215 (Caesars) – I think GW continues to eat with Zach Wilson and the Eagles’ D is coming into this one with injuries. Let’s keep GW churning with a TD in this matchup.
- Patriots at Cowboys
- Kyren Williams -124 (Caesars) – Just insane volume with no true threat to eat into his work. Also going to be in a favorable matchup, which he should get a lot of work in.
- Cooper Kupp -115 (FanDuel) – Best WR in the game is back with another week of practice and at home in a GREAT matchup. Kupp eats in this one.
- Lions at Buccaneers
- David Montgomery -155 (DraftKings) – Montgomery is loving life in Detroit and running with purpose. With no Gibbs, look for him to eat up all the Red Zone work and see the end zone again. I think he could be in line for multiple scores.
- Chris Godwin +260 (PointsBet) – I expect the Lions to be winning this game, so it’ll force Baker to air it out and I see Godwin having a nice game here with a definite touchdown upside.
