Hoffman’s Favorite NFL Week 3 Touchdown Bets
1pm Slate:
- Falcons at Lions
- Jahymr Gibbs -113 (Caesars) – Just like I wrote last week, Gibbs is too talented to not be involved in this offense. It is time to get him in the box for his first career NFL TD and at home is the place to do it to excite the fans.
- Desmond Ridder +600 (FanDuel/PointBet) – Ridder showed last week he is highly capable using his legs and to have some success against the Lions he will need to do the same. I can easily see him rushing one in, especially in Red Zone.
- Bills at Commanders
- Josh Allen +200 (PointsBet) – Josh Allen is just a bull, especially inside the Red Zone and Goal to Go situations. Calling his own number in those scenarios is always in play.
- Brian Robinson +140 (Caesars) – Plain and simple Brian Robinson and Sam Howell have a connection and Robinson is by far the most trusted in the offensive game plan for the Commanders. Look for them to give him his Red Zone touches like they have in Weeks 1 and 2 and for him to capitalize on it.
- Broncos at Dolphins
- Tyreek Hill -110 (Caesars) – Tyreek Hill is an absolute unstoppable force and looking to set some NFL receiving records this season. Look for him to be the main guy, particularly if Waddle misses this game, Tua will be looking Tyreek’s way early and often. Big play upside always in the cards as well, just multiple situations/scenarios Tyreek can score in.
- Braxton Berrios +240 (FanDuel) – Only if there is no Waddle, then this is a play. Berrios looked decent last week on Sunday night and if there is no Waddle, he fills that void.
- Tua +600 (Casears) – We have seen Tua use his legs when necessary, and if Waddle is going to be out, that takes away a massive weapon, which could lead to more Tua runs if he doesn’t.
- Texans at Jaguars
- Travis Etienne -110 (DraftKings) – I expect the Jags to be playing with a lead, which means heavy volume for Etienne. He should see Red Zone work vs. the Texans as well. Good spot at home here for Etienne to have a big game.
- Nico Collins +240 (FanDuel) – Plain and simple, Texan will likely be playing from behind per usual, and Stroud’s connection with Collins is pretty solid after two weeks. Look for him to continue to feed Collins, and if the Texans are going to keep pace with Jacksonville, Collins will be a big part of that.
- Colts at Ravens
- Lamar Jackson +165 (Caesars) – Simply put, the Ravens have a lot of issues on the offensive side of the ball due to injuries. Just lean on your most talented player to use his best weapon and don’t get cute with it.
- Chargers at Vikings
- Keenan Allen +130 (DraftKings) – If Ekeler misses again, it means Keenan Allen time, as we saw in Week 2. Herbert will find and target Allen as much as he can, especially in a game that figures to be a shootout with little to no defense.
- Justin Jefferson +100 (DraftKings) – Jefferson has legit done it all this season, leading the NFL in receiving after two weeks, but he hasn’t gotten into the end zone. That changes this week vs. the leaky Charger defense. Could be in play for 2+ TDs.
- Joshua Kelley -105 (Caesars) – Kelley takes over Ekeler’s role if he is absent. Will be heavily involved in Red Zone and Goal to Go scenarios.
- Jordan Addison +230 (FanDuel) – If the Chargers try to limit Jefferson, it will only leave Addison opportunities to thrive. He or Jefferson is definitely scoring, if not both.
- Patriots at Jets
- Breece Hall +230 (DraftKings) – Plain and simple, there is going to be weather in this game and I don’t expect many points from either side. If they do score TDs, they likely come on the ground from both teams. Hall and Stevenson are really the only logical people you can bet to score in this game.
- Rhamondre Stevenson +125 (DraftKings) – See Breece Hall write up.
- Saints at Packers
- Chris Olave +225 (PointsBeet) – Olave seems to be the most consistent, trustworthy player in a struggling Saints offense. The Saints will likely need to put up some more points in this contest than they have in the first two weeks. Olave almost scored twice last Monday night. I think he will get in the box here.
- Romeo Doubs +250 (DraftKings) – Romeo Doubs is a big target for Jordan Love and he seems to know it, especially in the Red Zone. Love is looking for his big target and finding him, particularly in the Red Zone. This game will likely have some scoring/pace, so that firmly puts Doubs in play here.
- Titans at Browns
- Derrick Henry +100 (FanDuel) – No need to go into big detail here, it’s Henry – we know how this works. He is in line for a TD weekly.
- DeShaun Watson +400 (PointsBet) – Watson was effective in Week 1 using his legs, rushing for a TD in the process. With the Browns’ backfield up in the air, I can see Watson taking it upon himself to run another one in.
4pm Slate:
- Panthers at Seahawks
- Adam Thielen +290 (PointsBet) – Thielen is clearly the Panthers’ best offensive weapon and I think he actually gets an upgrade at QB this week with Dalton starting due to Bryce Young’s injury. Look for the two veterans to link up for a TD.
- Kenneth Walker -103 (Caesars) – Feed your bell cow. Walker is a very solid back who continuously produces. I do not see why he doesn’t have another good game at home.
- Bears at Chiefs
- Travis Kelce -145 (Caesars) – Kelce at home as Mahomes’ most trusted pass catcher by far. Easy as that, book a Kelce TD and move on.
- Skyy Moore +230 (PointsBet) – Eventually another Chief pass catcher is going to have to emerge and I think Skyy starts to do that in this favorable contest at home.
- Justin Fields +200 (Fanduel) – Fields expressed his frustration with his coaching staff this week. I think they let Fields open it up like he did at the end of last season to keep him from going off the rails and he rushes one in. Could be in line for multiple scores.
- Cowboys at Cardinals
- Tony Pollard -129 (Caesars) – The Cowboys are going to roll the Cardinals in this matchup. I expect a similar script to Week 1 when they crushed the Giants. Look for Dak to play game manager and feed Pollard a lot, particularly in the Red Zone. This is one of my favorite TD plays of the day.
- Jake Ferguson +290 (FanDuel) – Ferguson is a massive target that Dak can easily use in the Red Zone. I like him in this spot to get in after Dak looked his way a few times last week. Just too big of a target not to utilize in Red Zone situations.
