Hoffman’s Favorite NFL Week 2 Touchdown Bets
1pm Slate:
- Chiefs at Jaguars
- Travis Kelce -140 (PointsBet) – We saw how frustrated Mahomes was with his pass catchers in Week 1. This week he gets his favorite target back and I expect him to pepper Kelce, especially in the Red Zone, which means Touchdowns. Could be in line for multiple touchdowns.
- Calvin Ridley +150 (Caesars) – In Week 1, it was clear the connection between Lawrence and Ridley is real. Lawrence targeted Ridley 11 times, and connected on seven of them. Chiefs DBs also gave up 70+ to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds in Week 1. I see Ridley finding his way open in this game and getting in the box.
- Patrick Mahomes +390 (FanDuel) – Mahomes rushed six times in Week 1 and that could be a sign of things to come this season as the lack of pass catchers outside of Kelce may be an issue. Can easily see Mahomes calling his own number and rushing one in.
- Tank Bigsby +265 (DraftKings) – We saw in Week 1 that Tank Bigsby is most likely going to be the goal line/short yardage back for the Jags, as he was vulturing carries from Etienne, especially in Goal-to-Go situations. If the Jaguars get inside the 5 again, it could be Tank time.
- Raiders at Bills
- Gabe Davis +215 (DraftKings) – Josh Allen was awful throwing the ball downfield in Week 1 vs. the Jets’ elite D. Look for him to make up for that at home vs. a way weaker D than he faced in Week 1. A couple deep shots to Davis could be in play in this game, all they need to do is connect on one.
- Davante Adams +130 (PointsBet) – The Raiders will most likely be playing from behind in this game, which means a lot of Davante. Look for Jimmy G to pepper Adams in this game, particularly in the Red Zone. Adams will most likely need to score in this game if the Raiders are going to want to keep pace with Buffalo.
- Seahawks at Lions
- Josh Reynolds +290 (FanDuel) – We saw Rams WRs feast vs. the Seahawks D in Week 1 and I see Goff airing one out deep to Reynolds for a TD. Reynolds was the second-highest targeted player on the team in Week 1 and I can see him getting loose in this one and finding the end zone.
- Kenneth Walker +140 (PointsBet) – Kenneth Walker had a lot of volume in Week 1 and I look for that to continue in Week 2, especially if they get in a Goal-to-Go scenario, feeding Walker is never a bad idea.
- Jaxson Smith-Njigba +330 (DraftKings) – JSN was very active in Week 1 and we saw the Chiefs try to use underneath routes to beat Lions and a lot of them were open, but negated by drops by the Chiefs’ wideouts. I can see JSN running similar routes to Toney did vs. the Lions, but JSN will actually complete the catch. Can also see him coming across formation in the Red Zone and catching a short pass and sprinting to the pylon.
- Jahmyr Gibbs +130 (FanDuel/PointsBet) – Gibbs was clearly the more explosive RB for the Lions in Week 1 and I assume they will increase his workload. Getting him his first NFL Touchdown at home in Week 2 seems like a no-brainer to rally the home fans around their rookie talent.
- Ravens at Bengals
- Ja’Marr Chase +100 (DraftKings) – Chase, in four career games vs. the Ravens, has totaled 462 yards receiving and two touchdowns. It is just a good matchup for him, and after a dud Week 1, look for him and Burrow to hook up a lot at home vs. the Ravens.
- Zay Flowers +260 (DraftKings) – Flowers was the most targeted person on the team by far and the only WR Lamar targeted in the Red Zone (five Red Zone targets). It is clear Lamar is looking his way and will try to get him into the end zone.
- Chargers at Titans
- Derrick Henry -120 (Caesars) – Simple Henry is the Titans. He didn’t score in Week 1 and his double-digit touchdown season starts this week.
- Keenan Allen +180 (DraftKings) – Carr and the Saints exploited the Titans’ secondary (three pass catches with over 60 yards) in Week 1 and the Herbert/Allen duo is an upgrade from Carr/Olave. Look for Allen to be heavily involved in the passing attack in this contest and find his way into the end zone.
- Packers at Falcons
- Bijan Robinson +115 (DraftKings) – The Falcons clearly are playing through their RBs and will continue to do so. Look for Bijan to be involved a lot in this game, especially in the Red Zone, where his pass-catching skills come into play heavily like we saw in Week 1 when he scored on a passing play.
- Luke Musgrave +330 (DraftKings) – The Panthers’ limited success vs. the Falcons was through their TE, and I see Green Bay replicating what Carolina did, especially in the Red Zone, and getting Musgrave a TD.
- Bears at Buccaneers
- Justin Fields +185 (PointsBet) – We know how big of a threat Fields is with his legs. Look for Fields to do what Hurts did in Goal-to-Go situations on Thursday night against the Vikings and push his way into the end zone.
- DJ Moore +245 (Caesars) – The Viking WRs had a lot of success vs. the Bucs’ D and I can see a similar scenario for DJ Moore in this matchup. All he has to do is break one, or use his speed in the Red Zone, to get in the box versus a Tampa Bay Defense that had some holes in Week 1 vs. pass catchers.
- Rachaad White +155 (DraftKings) – Week 1 showed us Baker is trying to will this team with toughness and managing the game with little to no mistakes. I see them running very conventional sets, especially in the Red Zone, and White was the most consistent player for the Bucs in Week 1. I think they get him the Red Zone touches to warrant a touchdown in Week 2.
- Texans at Colts
- Dameon Pierce +165 (Caesars) – The success of the Texans’ offense is going to have to come through Pierce. Houston has to get him churning in this one to keep it close and I see him getting his first TD of the season at home in a divisional matchup.
- Anthony Richardson +190 (FanDuel) – The Colts want to run the ball in the Red Zone. In Week 1 they ran eight running plays to four passing plays in the Red Zone (four rushes for Richardson, four for Jackson). I expect to see the same formula again in Week 2. One, if not both, of Richardson and Jackson should see the end zone in this game.
- Deon Jackson +370 (FanDuel) – See write up under Richardson.
- 49ers at Rams
- Deebo Samuel +145 (FanDuel) – We saw a lot of Aiuyk in Week 1, so I expect the Rams’ D to adjust to that, leaving Deebo in some favorable spots. Getting the dual threat playmaker involved in this game seems logical and San Fran has to get him his TDs somewhere. I like Deebo in this matchup to get in the end zone.
- George Kittle +200 (PointsBet) – Kittle is a big, monstrous target across the middle of the field and in the Red Zone. It took the 49ers a little longer than the would have liked to get him going last season, but look for them to correct that this season. I believe this is a good spot for a Kittle TD.
- Tyler Higbee +230 (PointsBet) – The Rams most likely will be playing from behind in this game, which means more passing. Look for Stafford to look for Higbee’s big body, especially in the Red Zone.
- Giants at Cardinals
- Saquon Barkley -120 (PointsBet/FanDuel) – Plain and simple, the Giants need a win, and to show any form of life they will need to do it through their best two offensive weapons, Barkley and Waller. Let’s keep it plain and simple, no sugar coating here.
- Darren Waller +230 (Caesars) – See write up under Saquon Barkley.
- James Conner +145 (FanDuel) – The Cardinals do not have much on offense right now. To stay competitive with the Giants, they will need to pound the ball with Conner. We also saw how effective the Cowboys were with the run last week, and if the Cardinals can replicate that a little, I do not see why Conner wouldn’t see the end zone in this game.
- Jets at Cowboys
- Tony Pollard +100 (PointsBet/FanDuel) – Pollard is basically in line for a TD weekly in this Cowboy offense. He is heavily involved in the run and pass schemes, especially in the Red Zone, where he is the most-used player by far for the Cowboys.
- Breece Hall +260 (PointsBet) – The Jets are going to have to run the ball now to be effective and keep things close. I see a steady dose of Breece and Dalvin in this contest to limit the Cowboys’ offensive time of possession. One of them, if not both, should see the end zone.
- Dalvin Cook +310 (FanDuel) – See write up under Breece Hall.
- Dak Prescott +430 (Caesars) – We all know how good the Jets’ defense is, especially the corners/secondary. Dak has a big body and will most likely need to use it in this matchup vs. the Jets, particularly in Goal-to-Go scenarios. I can easily see Dak pushing his way into the end zone on a 1st and Goal behind his big offensive line.
- Commanders at Broncos
- Brian Robinson Jr. +200 (FanDuel) – Robinson was clearly the lead back in Washington, getting 19 carries in week 1. The next highest on the team was three, and that guy, Antonio Gibson, fumbled once, so that will not help his cause. Look for the Commanders to use Robinson again in this matchup and him finding the end zone is not out of the question at all.
- Samaje Perine +235 (Caesars) – Perine was heavily involved in the scheme the Broncos are running and his pass-catching ability is better than Williams’s, which gives him more upside in the Red Zone area. I like this spot for him at home.
