Hoffman’s 2023 FIBA World Cup Betting Guide

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FIBA World Cup

Starts August 25


Group A:

  • Angola
    • No NBA Players
  • Dominican Republic
    • Karl Anthony Towns (Timberwolves), Lester Quinos (Warriors)
  • Italy
    • Simone Fontecchio (Jazz)
  • Philippines
    • Jordan Clarkson (Jazz)
  • GROUP BREAKDOWN: This is a very poor group in general. The Dominican Republic and Italy should advance out of this group. Italy is the betting favorite in this group, but I expect the Dominican Republic, behind KAT, to edge out Italy for the group win. Dominican moves on to the second round as Group A Winner, Italy advances as Group A runner up. 
  • GROUP WINNER: Dominican Republic 

Group B:

  • China
    • Kyler Anderson (Timberwolves)
  • Puerto Rico
    • No NBA Players
  • Serbia
    • Bogdan Bogdanovic (Atlanta Hawks), Aleksej Pokusevski (Oklahoma City Thunder), Nikola Jovic (Miami Heat), Filip Petrusev (Philadelphia 76ers) 
  • South Sudan
    • Wenyen Gabriel (Lakers), Carlik Jones (Bulls)
  • GROUP BREAKDOWN: Serbia is going to dominate this group as they are clearly the class of the group in World play. Expect them to win by double digits each outing in this group. Despite not having any NBA players, Puerto Rico should have enough to edge out China for the second spot in this group and advance to the second round.
  • GROUP WINNER: Serbia
  • GROUP RUNNER UP: Puerto Rico

Group C:

  • Greece
    • Thanais Antetokounmpoo (Bucks)
  • Jordan
    • No NBA Players
  • New Zealand
    •  No NBA Players
  • USA
    • Paolo Banchero (Magic), Brandon Ingram (Pelicans), Jalen Brunson (Knicks), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Austin Reaves (Lakers), Josh Hart (Knicks), Mikal Bridges (Nets), Cam Johnson (Nets), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Bobby Portis (Bucks), Walker Kessler (Jazz), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Grizzlies)
  • GROUP BREAKDOWN: USA should win all games in this group by 15+ points and easily win the group and move on to the second round. Look for the USA to play through Anthony Edwards this tournament and for him to really shine. Jalen Brunson could be a darkhorse for Tournament MVP as well, he has been rock solid so far for Team USA in their exhibition games. Greece will fall in line as the runner up as Jordan and New Zealand are just purely outclassed in this group.

Group D:

  • Egypt
    • No NBA Players on roster
  • Lithuania
    • Jonas Valanciunis (Pelicans), Azuolas Tubelis (76ers)
  • Mexico
    • No NBA Players on roster
  • Montenegro
    • Nikola Vucevic (Bulls)
  • GROUP BREAKDOWN: Not that exciting of a group, but Lithuania should take it down with Montenegro finishing second. Valanciunas will easily be the best player in this group and have his way throughout, the only place he may trip up is against Vucevic and Montenegro, but I don’t see it.
  • GROUP WINNER: Lithuania
  • GROUP RUNNER UP: Montenegro

Group E:

  • Australia
    • Josh Giddey (OKC), Joe Ingles (Magic), Josh Green (Mavericks), Patty Mills (Hawks), Dante Exum (Mavericks), Xavier Cooks (Wizards), Dyson Daniels (Pelicans), Jock Landale (Rockets), Matisse Thybulle (Blazers), Jack White (OKC)
  • Finland
    • Lauri Markkanen (Jazz)
  • Germany
    • Franz Wagner (Magic), Mortiz Wagner (Magic), Dennis Schroder (Raptors), Daniel Theis (Pacers)
  • Japan
    • Yuta Watanabe (Suns)
  • GROUP BREAKDOWN: Australia and Germany clearly outclass Finland and Japan in this group; it’s just a matter of who is going to win it between the two. Australia has been fighting for the better part of 10 years now to challenge the USA at the top of the World Rankings. They come into this tournament currently ranked third with a roster filled with NBA talent, but will it be enough to win this group as Germany is coming into this tournament after impressive Exhibition games, particularly an eight-point loss to USA in which they were winning most of the game. Germany is led by Dennis Schroder and Daniel Theis, who has really shined in qualifying and exhibition play. I think Germany is going to continue their hot play and take down this group with Australia coming in second.
  • GROUP WINNER: Germany
  • GROUP RUNNER UP: Australia

Group F:

  • Cape Verde
    • No NBA Players
  • Georgia
    • Sandro Mamukelashvili (Spurs), Goga Bitadze (Pacers)
  • Slovenia
    • Luka Doncic (Mavericks)
  • Venezuela
    • No NBA Players
  • GROUP BREAKDOWN: Another non-exciting group, although it does feature Luka Doncic, who always dazzles on the World Stage. He will easily lead Slovenia to first place in this group and is in play for Leading Scorer of the Tournament. The rest of the teams in this group are sub-par at best. Georgia should be able to beat out Venezuela for second place in this group, but the runner up of this group is likely due for an early exit in the second round.
  • GROUP WINNER: Slovenia
  • GROUP RUNNER UP: Georgia

Group G:

  • Brazil
    • Raul Neto (Cavs)
  • Cote d’Iviore
    • No NBA Players
  • Iran
    • No NBA Players
  • Spain
    • Santi Aldama (Grizzlies), Usman Garuba (Hawks)
  • GROUP BREAKDOWN: Spain actually enters this tournament as the #1 team in the World Rankings (USA is #2). Although Spain is missing a lot of their key players who usually make up this team, they won’t struggle in group play, as this is a very easy group and they will win all their group play games by double digits most likely, but they will struggle in the second round and beyond without their top talent. Brazil will finish as the runner up in this group and advance with Spain, but I do not expect much from Brazil past First Round Group Play.

Group H:

  • Canada
    • RJ Barrett (Knicks), Dillion Brooks (Rockets), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC), Lu Dort (OKC), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Timberwolves), Kelly Olynyk (Jazz), Dwight Powell (Mavericks)
  • France
    • Frank Ntilikina (Free Agent, recently with Mavericks), Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves), Evan Fournier (Knicks), Nicolas Batum (Clippers)
  • Latvia
    • Davis Bertens (OKC)
  • Lebanon
    • No NBA Players
  • GROUP BREAKDOWN: This will be the most entertaining Group of the First Round. Canada and France will battle for top position in this group and they waste no time to figure out who will get the upper hand as they play each other in the first game of group play on Friday morning. I favor Canada in this group as their NBA Talent and defense will be the difference maker over a very good France Team. Both of these teams have a real chance to challenge the USA for the Gold in this tournament.
  • GROUP WINNER: Canada


Group I:

  • Group I (Top 2 from Groups A & B from 1st Round Group Play):
    • Dominican Republic, Italy, Serbia, Puerto Rico
  • GROUP BREAKDOWN: Serbia should clearly dominate in this 2nd Round Group Play and qualify for the Quarterfinals. The question is who is going to finish second in Group I and join Serbia in the Quarters. I would like to see the Dominican make it with KAT, but I feel Italy will get their revenge on the Dominican from the 1st Round and join Serbia in the quarterfinals.
  • GROUP WINNER: Serbia 

Group J:

  • Group J (Top 2 from Groups C & D from 1st Round Group Play): 
    • USA, Greece, Lithuania, Montenegro
  • GROUP BREAKDOWN: Once again USA should easily have their way with these teams. Lithuania may be able to give USA slight trouble, but the talent level of USA will be too much and they will win this Group and advance to the quarterfinals. Once again, just like Group I, Group J will come down to who can come in second and move on with the USA. It will ultimately come down to Greece and Lithuania. I think Lithuania will have a strong performance from Valanciunas this tournament and they will take down the Giannis-less Greece team to advance to the quarters with USA.
  • GROUP RUNNER UP: Lithuania

Group K:

  • Group K (Top 2 from Groups E & F from 1st Round Group Play):
    • Germany, Australia, Slovenia, Georgia
  • GROUP BREAKDOWN: This is going to be fun between Germany, Australia, and Slovenia. Georgia has little to no chance vs. those three, as they will be severely outmatched. This will come down to how good Luka plays, if he is on fire and dictates the pace of the game, it will be hard to beat Slovenia, but I think with the way Australia and Germany have been playing, this will be a tall task for Luka and the Slovenians and they will falter and finish third in this group behind Germany and Australia. Australia gets their revenge from 1st Round Group play and edges out Germany to win Group K.
  • GROUP WINNER: Australia 
  • GROUP RUNNER UP: Germany

Group L:

  • Group L (Top 2 from Groups G & H from 1st Round Group Play):
    • Spain, Brazil, Canada, France
  • GROUP BREAKDOWN: This is where Spain’s top talent will be severely missed, as Canada and France are littered with NBA talent and both looking to challenge the USA for the Gold medal. There may be jockeying here to avoid USA in a semifinal matchup, as the team who finishes second in this group would likely not see USA ’til the Final. I see Canada falling to France on purpose to avoid the semifinal with USA to set up a USA vs. Canada final.
  • GROUP WINNER: France


Group I Winner vs. Group J Runner Up: Serbia vs. Lithuania 
  • Serbia should be able to handle Lithuania fairly easily in this projected Quarterfinals matchup. Bogdanovic and Jovic should be able to push the pace and Serbia’s defense will be too much for Lithuania to handle.
Group K Winner vs. Group L Runner Up: Australia vs. Canada 
  • By avoiding the semifinal matchup vs. USA, Canada’s consolation prize is a quarterfinal matchup vs. Australia. This will be a nice test for both sides, but I think the guard play of Canada behind Shai and RJ Barrett will be the difference maker, pushing Canada to the semifinals. 
Group J Winner vs. Group I Runner Up: USA vs. Italy 
  • USA has a fairly easy schedule in this tournament up until the Semis. Expect Anthony Edwards and company to get out and run vs. Italy, jumping out to an early double digit lead and never looking back. USA’s first real test in this tournament will be in the Semi-Finals. They should be undefeated up to this point. 
Group L Winner vs. Group K Runner Up: Germany vs. France
  • Most people will say France has the best chance to dethrone USA, but over the past few weeks, this German team led by Dennis Schroder and Daniel Theis has been making a lot of noise and I think they are poised for a deep run in this tournament. I am calling for the upset here. Germany takes down France and gets another shot at USA in the Semis after falling to Team USA in an exhibition game 99-91 just a few days before this tournament began.


Serbia vs. Canada: 
  • Canada’s Quarterfinal matchup vs. Australia will help them in this game. Canada’s guards should be able to control the pace and flow of the game. They have the pieces defensively to neutralize Bogdanovic and Jovic and take down Serbia in the first semifinal game.
USA vs. Germany:
  • These teams met just a few days ago in a game where Germany was in control for most of the game, even holding double digit leads at points. It took a late rally from Anthony Edwards and Team USA to squeeze out the win. I expect the USA to make the adjustments needed to fix the issues they had with Germany in the exhibition game and ride Edwards and the team defense to the finals.


USA vs. Canada:
  • A game I am excited to see and really hope happens in the Finals. If these two clash, look for a back and forth affair with Team USA ultimately winning due to stronger guard play, length, and defense. Canada will need a stellar performance out of Shai and neutralize the USA on the glass and they will have a chance to take down the USA. If they fail to do those things, Team USA will win going away.


Tournament Winner: 
  • USA -125 (3u) 
  • Canada +900 (1u)
Tournament MVP: 
  • Anthony Edwards +280 (2u) 
  • Jalen Brunson +700 (0.5u) 
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +1000 (0.5u) 
To Reach Semi-Finals: 
  • Germany +400 (1u)


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