Pennzoil 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Sunday 3/3/24 3:30 PM
1.5 mile, Paved
Viva Las Vegas…………….Viva Las Vegas!! This is a 267-lap event.
Last Race Notables: Larson won. Larson led 133 laps, Bell led 61 laps, Kes led 38 laps, Hamlin led 23 laps, Truex led 9 laps. Start/Finish: Kes 21/4, Suarez 36/15, LaJoie 28/19, Burton 33/20.
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps means less laps led points, and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likelihood that you need to roster two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.
Process:
Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for Nascar. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over, so then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab.
Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way:
Point Scoring:
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
DraftKings Scoring:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 46 pts, 2nd: 42 pts, 3rd: 41 pts, 4th: 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
FanDuel Scoring:
- 0.1 PTs for each lap completed.
- Place Differential = +/- 0.5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish….start 20th, finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner: 43 pts, 2nd: 40 pts, 3rd: 38 pts, 4th: 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Track Stats:
| Last 4 Races | Driver Pts | Previous Winners | Year | Laps Led | Average Finish | ||
| Byron | 174 | Larson | 2023 | Larson | 223 | Chastain | 5.5 |
| Chastain | 172 | Byron | 2023 | Byron | 185 | Kyle Busch | 6 |
| Larson | 167 | Logano | 2022 | Chastain | 151 | Byron | 6.5 |
| Truex | 146 | Bowman | 2022 | Bell | 93 | Truex | 7.8 |
| Kyle Busch | 142 | Hamlin | 2021 | Hamlin | 69 | Reddick | 9 |
| Bell | 135 | Larson | 2021 | Blaney | 49 | Larson | 10 |
| Hamlin | 125 | Kurt Busch | 2020 | Kyle Busch | 49 | Bell | 12.8 |
| Reddick | 123 | Logano | 2020 | Kes | 46 | Bowman | 13 |
| Logano | 111 | Truex | 2019 | Logano | 41 | Almirola | 13.5 |
| Keselowski | 103 | Logano | 2019 | Reddick | 35 | Hamlin | 14.5 |
Picks (DK pricing shown)
Top Tier Above $9500:
- William Byron ($10,500) – Starting 4th.
- Kyle Larson ($11,000) – Starting 2nd.
- Kyle Busch ($9,700) – Starting 21st.
- Denny Hamlin ($10,700) – Starting 28th.
Mid Tier $7500-$9500:
- Tyler Reddick ($8,900) – Starting 18th.
- Ross Chastain ($9,100) – Starting 20th.
- Chris Bell ($9,500) – Starting 10th.
- Alex Bowman ($8,100) – Starting 23rd.
- Brad Keselowski ($8,500) – Starting 25th.
Sleepers Under $7500:
- Daniel Hemric (5,500) – Starting 34th.
- Ryan Preece ($6,000) – Starting 36th.
- Harrison Burton ($5,400) – Starting 29th.
- J.H. Nemechek ($6,700) – Starting 27th.
For More GOAT Bets: See Today’s Plays
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter, @trmp31, or @GOAT in Discord.
